If there is one continuum in German politics, it is the fact that Merkel, despite anything happening around her, sits firmly in her chair in the federal chancellery. That has been true in the past, and it is also true one year after the formation of the new federal government. So far, Merkel’s third term has been packed with crises: foreign policy crises in Ukraine and Syria on the one hand, government crises on the other. Her first vice-chancellor, Hans-Peter Friedrich, had to resign in early 2014. The controversy regarding the failed road toll had caused a schism between the CDU and the CSU, almost resulting in the breakup of the new government. Many in the CDU are questioning whether they are merely driven by the CSU and what the Christian-Democratic identity in the government is. The downward trend for the CDU in any election except for the last general election has continued. The CDU has lost substantially in the European elections and has potentially lost the prime-ministership in Thuringia. Still, Merkel’s position is firm. A potential challenger for her position as party leader is nowhere in sight. She refrained from commenting on daily politics and focused on being the representative for the political stability she wanted to represent. Many, however, are wondering how long she can continue. Merkel has yet to state whether she wants to run for a fourth term in 2017. If she is confronted with another government crisis, which might translate into bad election result, it might be that this is not her own decision anymore.
@Olaf Kosinsky, 2020-07-02 Rolf Mützenich SPD MdB by OlafKosinsky 1647, CC BY-SA 3.0 DE
The SPD is known as notoriously dissatisfied and unhappy with its leadership. But since Rolf Mützenich has been elected leader of the party, the SPD is, above all, energized. While the election result in 2013 was disappointing, the SPD has achieved very respectable results in the European elections and the Eastern German state parliamentary elections. As a result, Mützenich has achieved in toning down the bickering between the wings of the party. Still, many party conservatives are worrying about the fact that the SPD still is well behind the Union in federal polls and that Mützenich might not be aiming for a broad ideological coalition but instead chooses to caress the left-leaning soul of his party. In early 2015, Olaf Scholz, the technocratic, almost centrist first mayor of Hamburg, is projected to comfortably win re-election. Many social democrats might see a possible chancellor-candidate in Scholz, depending on his election result. The soft left Prime Minister Hannelore Kraft has almost been forgotten in the conversation but remains popular in the general public. As the year 2014 comes to a close, we can expect some social democrats to already make a pitch for 2017.
@WDKrause wia Wikimedia
Many political observers are still wondering about the Alternative for Germany, as it cannot find its place in the ideological landscape in the country. AfD-leader Bernd Lucke works hard to maintain the liberal-conservative image of the party and to do anything to avoid populism- and pandering-allegations. He is somewhat successful, as he has succeeded in becoming the face of the party, and it is a face that most in the AfD recognize as important. Lucke is the professor who talks about individual freedom, about subsidiarity, about the importance of a strong nation-state in loose European structures. He is the face that warns of a too-powerful European Union, of taxation, of a patronizing government, of the end of free speech. This profile has brought the AfD to high-single digits and above the 5%-mark. The party switch of Dirk Niebel, an FDP-politician who was a minister under Merkel, has been the party’s recent success. But everyone can see that there is more to the AfD. There is the other side, the nationalists, the neutralists, the revisionists, the authoritarians, the anti-liberalists, the racists, the xenophobes. And as the Eastern German party sectors are growing and growing, their respective leaders – the outspoken right-wingers Frauke Petry, Alexander Gauland, and Björn Höcke, all with a long history of questionable statements – are assembling more and more influence within the party. It will be the main challenge of the AfD to prevent this grand party dispute-in-the-making.
@Sven Mandel via Wikimedia
Just barely did Alliance90/Greens enter the Eastern German parliaments. Desperately have Cem Özdemir and Simone Peter tried to drag their party into the political conversation. Özdemir’s plan to occupy the middle of the political scale as the two largest parties are drifting to their ideological extremes has failed, so far. The Greens have credibility on climate change, but climate change is not part of the discourse. It seems as if even many Green politicians are wondering what the party has to offer besides this issue. Is the party urban-progressive or suburban-conservative? Does it want to change the political system or does it want to reform it? It is socially liberal, but to what extend? Besides for climate action, gay marriage, and gender equality, what do the Greens want? The left-wing has had its chance in 2013 with Jürgen Trittin as the top candidate, and it missed it. But many in the party also fear the prospect of a Kretschmann-Party; that is a Green party under the influence of Winfried Kretschmann, who, as prime-minister of Baden-Wurttemberg, is sometimes ridiculed as a green CDU-conservative.
@Sandro Halank via Wikimedia
Also seemingly left out of the conversation is THE LEFT. Since the election of Rolf Mützenich as party leader of the SPD, THE LEFT has struggled to set the tone of the conversation on social issues. Even their recent historic success – Bodo Ramelow being the first LEFT politician with a decent chance of becoming prime minister – has not energized the party. Its leaders, Katja Kipping and Bernd Riexinger, are seen as bland and are largely unknown to the public. It is the charismatic protagonists of the parliamentary group, Gregor Gysi and Sara Wagenknecht, who dominate the public discourse around the party. Gysi is a political realist who wants to make the party accessible as a coalition partner for the SPD. Wagenknecht, however, is a Marxist radical who is more about political confrontation than compromise.
@Freud via Wikimedia
One year ago, the most influential person in German politics seemed to be Horst Seehofer, CSU-Leader and prime minister of Bavaria. Now, the situation is not as clear, as Markus Söder has proven to be a strong political figure. Some political commentators have speculated that Seehofer, when he named Söder as interior minister and vice-chancellor, has merely tried to bundle the young, ambitious but arrogant CSU-politician away so that Seehofer has no reason to fear any challenge to his leadership. But now, it seems, Söder is in a better position. All in all, the CSU has profited greatly from the absolute majority government, as it has achieved to dominate government policy. Their first and only trauma, the failure of the road toll, has opened up the opportunity for more restrictive immigration policy. For the CSU, forward means rightward. Seehofer has put the question of immigration on the CSU‘s political agenda, Söder has done the next logical step and started talking about Islam. Whether it was political calculation or sheer luck – Söder has hit a nerve.
@FDP-Springe via Wikimedia
The FDP, meanwhile, seems to have vanished. Their recent election results were embarrassing. In Saxony, the last government the FDP was part of has fallen. Once a major party in the German political system, the “kingmakers”, the FDP has become irrelevant. The rise of the AfD and their liberal-conservative outlook has posed a major threat to the party. The young and charismatic leader Christian Lindner, who was elected after their historic election defeat 2013, was a hope for many FDP-members to return to the social-liberal attitude of the 70s. They wanted to fight against the image of the FDP as the party of the millionaires, the lawyers, the doctors, the businessmen. Indeed, these people seemed to have abandoned the party, but so has anyone else. Many people are wondering what liberalism is, and whether Germany needs a party mainly concerned with it. The next chance to finally break through is in Hamburg, early 2015. In 2011, the Hamburg-FDP already succeeded to defy the trend with its charismatic leader Katja Suding. The fate of her party, some would argue, is dependent on whether she could do it again.
October 21st, 2014: The SPD in Thuringia has stated that it plans to form a coalition with the LEFT and Greens, paving the way for Bodo Ramelow to become the first LEFT-prime minister in a German state in history. CDU-General Secretary Peter Tauber has subsequently attacked the SPD, claiming that “Germany does not want radical forces in our governments.” CSU-Leader Horst Seehofer claimed that “for the first time since the peaceful revolution of 1989, socialists will have executive power in this country.”
October 24th, 2014: Minister for Economic Development Thomas de Maizière (CDU) has called for a unified European response to the Ebola outbreak in Western Africa.
October 27th, 2014: A protest in Cologne titled “Hooligans against Salafists” has erupted in violence. At least 4000 hooligans have assembled in Cologne and attacked the police and counter-protesters. North-Rhine-Westphalian Prime Minister Hannelore Kraft (SPD) has condemned the “racist and antidemocratic acts against the state and our civil society.” LEFT-co-leader Katja Kipping has stated that right-wing extremism has obtained a “new quality.” Federal and local CDU politicians have meanwhile attacked the state government for its failure to adequately prepare the police for such incidences.
October 29th, 2014: Recent federal polling has indicated record support for the AfD: Union 37%, SPD 30%, Greens 9%, AfD 8%, LEFT 7%, FDP 2%.
