AZ-OHPI: Biden +9
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Author Topic: AZ-OHPI: Biden +9  (Read 3307 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #25 on: April 14, 2020, 01:16:39 PM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on April 14, 2020, 12:48:03 PM
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on April 14, 2020, 10:22:03 AM
The last time a toxic Republican incumbent ran for re-election in Maricopa County, they also lost by 13 points

um what Ford and HW won Marciopa and if your talking about Hoover , than he lost Maricopa by 30 points

I'm sure he's talking about Joe Arpaio (it didn't say incumbent President).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #26 on: April 14, 2020, 01:32:16 PM »
AZ and ME 2 are gonna be the tipping point. Trump can win either WI or PA
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President Johnson
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« Reply #27 on: April 14, 2020, 01:33:31 PM »
This is clearly an outlier, but I think Uncle Joe is very well positioned to win Arizona along with picking up the senate seat with Mark Kelly's strong campaign against Trump hack McSally. My current prediction for Arizona is a two point win, something like 50-48%, similar to the 2018 senate race (and county map).
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #28 on: April 14, 2020, 03:20:19 PM »
Looking forward to seeing this on the Atlas polling map! (LOL).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #29 on: April 14, 2020, 04:56:22 PM »
I have a feeling AZ is gonna be the new VA and PA is the new OH, the way these states are diverging.  Dems if if things go right fir them will win narrowly 270 to 268. The only way Trump wins if ME 2 votes R and the election is thrown into the House with more R delegations
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #30 on: April 14, 2020, 05:34:06 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on April 14, 2020, 04:56:22 PM
I have a feeling AZ is gonna be the new VA and PA is the new OH, the way these states are diverging.  Dems if if things go right fir them will win narrowly 270 to 268. The only way Trump wins if ME 2 votes R and the election is thrown into the House with more R delegations

Well, ME 2 is almost certainly going to vote R so hopefully it won't come to that.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #31 on: April 14, 2020, 06:21:20 PM »
I am getting sick of all this winning! I wonder if Democrats will be able to pick up any seats in the Phoenix suburbs?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #32 on: April 14, 2020, 06:43:36 PM »
I want to believe...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #33 on: April 14, 2020, 07:05:44 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on April 14, 2020, 04:56:22 PM
I have a feeling AZ is gonna be the new VA and PA is the new OH, the way these states are diverging.  Dems if if things go right fir them will win narrowly 270 to 268. The only way Trump wins if ME 2 votes R and the election is thrown into the House with more R delegations

People who think PA is lurching rightward must've missed 2018.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #34 on: April 14, 2020, 07:28:15 PM »
Yes, Bob Casey was on ballot he gives Dems extra points whenever he runs.
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Hammy
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« Reply #35 on: April 14, 2020, 09:22:00 PM »
Junk it.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #36 on: April 15, 2020, 08:42:05 AM »
VA 2008?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #37 on: April 15, 2020, 11:00:34 AM »
« Edited: April 15, 2020, 11:04:00 AM by ProudModerate2 »
OH Predictive Insights released a poll today (Wed April 15), showing Kelly leading by +9 (Kelly 51, McSally 42). This is obviously being discussed separately in Atlas, in another thread ( https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=369177.new#new ), but thought I would mention it here also.
I think the great enthusiasm in Arizona for Kelly, is going to kick-over at least 1-to-2 percentage points  for Biden in the presidential race in that state.
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Holmes
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« Reply #38 on: April 15, 2020, 11:14:15 AM »
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on April 15, 2020, 11:00:34 AM
OH Predictive Insights released a poll today (Wed April 15), showing Kelly leading by +9 (Kelly 51, McSally 42). This is obviously being discussed separately in Atlas, in another thread ( https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=369177.new#new ), but thought I would mention it here also.
I think the great enthusiasm in Arizona for Kelly, is going to kick-over at least 1-to-2 percentage points  for Biden in the presidential race in that state.

There are no coattails when going up the ballot.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #39 on: April 15, 2020, 12:23:23 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on April 15, 2020, 11:14:15 AM
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on April 15, 2020, 11:00:34 AM
OH Predictive Insights released a poll today (Wed April 15), showing Kelly leading by +9 (Kelly 51, McSally 42). This is obviously being discussed separately in Atlas, in another thread ( https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=369177.new#new ), but thought I would mention it here also.
I think the great enthusiasm in Arizona for Kelly, is going to kick-over at least 1-to-2 percentage points  for Biden in the presidential race in that state.

There are no coattails when going up the ballot.

If there were, would they be coat collars?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #40 on: April 16, 2020, 10:37:28 AM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on April 14, 2020, 12:48:03 PM
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on April 14, 2020, 10:22:03 AM
The last time a toxic Republican incumbent ran for re-election in Maricopa County, they also lost by 13 points

um what Ford and HW won Marciopa and if your talking about Hoover , than he lost Maricopa by 30 points

I thought it was pretty obvious I was referring to Arpaio, who got destroyed by a 56-43 margin and by 200,000 votes in 2016
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #41 on: April 16, 2020, 12:06:05 PM »
Drive around suburban areas around Phoenix. They are the desert version of Orange County, CA. And we all know how that's going.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #42 on: April 18, 2020, 02:14:35 PM »
Definitely inflated (not the must trustworthy pollster either), but AZ being Lean D isn’t exactly surprising. Likely the most likely Trump state to flip in 2020.
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Badger
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« Reply #43 on: April 18, 2020, 10:25:21 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on April 18, 2020, 02:14:35 PM
Definitely inflated (not the must trustworthy pollster either), but AZ being Lean D isn’t exactly surprising. Likely the most likely Trump state to flip in 2020.

Second most likely to Michigan, IMHO.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #44 on: April 20, 2020, 10:46:41 AM »
New Poll: Arizona President by OH Predictive Insights on 2020-04-08

Summary: D: 52%, R: 43%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #45 on: April 21, 2020, 07:51:51 AM »
Quote from: Ridin' with Biden on April 14, 2020, 06:21:20 PM
I am getting sick of all this winning! I wonder if Democrats will be able to pick up any seats in the Phoenix suburbs?
Well the 8th might flip. It's probably the weakest GOP seat in metro Pheonix.
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