AZ-OHPI: Biden +9
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Author Topic: AZ-OHPI: Biden +9  (Read 3228 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: April 14, 2020, 07:11:07 AM »
Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, April 7-8, 600 LV (change from March)

Biden 52 (+3)
Trump 43 (nc)
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2020, 07:14:57 AM »
Uugh.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2020, 07:16:44 AM »
Biden might win Arizona, but not by 9 points. Probably 3-4 is his ceiling.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2020, 07:23:39 AM »
If only this pill had any credibility ... it would be awesome to say the least
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2020, 07:57:52 AM »
Isn't this outfit Republican? If so, this is Biden's race to lose. Period.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2020, 08:04:16 AM »
Has Biden leading by 13 POINTS (54-41 in Maricopa).
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2020, 08:17:17 AM »
Quote from: #Bidenworth2020 on April 14, 2020, 08:04:16 AM
Has Biden leading by 13 POINTS (54-41 in Maricopa).

Which is very unlikely to say the least (and I'm very pessimistic about Trump holding AZ)
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2020, 08:19:12 AM »
Hot take: for all the focus on Wisconsin, it’s gonna end up not actually mattering that much and will be to the right of the tipping point state imo (which will probably be either Arizona or Pennsylvania). I suspect Florida may end up to the left of Wisconsin too.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2020, 08:22:03 AM »
Arizona is becoming what Virginia was in 2008.
And by the way, how many more polls showing Biden ahead will we need before pundits start treating this a lean/tilt D state?
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2020, 08:24:23 AM »
Things are very tough out there.   With the way he has handle the COVID-19 crisis, April is truly turning out to be a horrible month for Trump.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2020, 08:25:30 AM »
While I don't know Biden is winning by 9, it IS very possible that Arizona is the new Virginia and the speed as to which it turns left might go faster than we thought, even since 2018.

Not to mention, OHPI is R-leaning and even had McSally winning in the 2018 race.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2020, 08:29:16 AM »
Even more interesting, OHPI has done 6 polls of this race since last year. Trump has never topped 46% in any of them
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AGA
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« Reply #12 on: April 14, 2020, 08:32:08 AM »
Yeah, no.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: April 14, 2020, 09:30:31 AM »
Probably Biden +3
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Pollster
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« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2020, 09:41:04 AM »
Definitely overstated, especially that Maricopa margin. Biden can probably manage a mid-single digits win here in the best possible case scenario.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #15 on: April 14, 2020, 10:22:03 AM »
The last time a toxic Republican incumbent ran for re-election in Maricopa County, they also lost by 13 points
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Brittain33
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« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2020, 11:10:43 AM »
I’m surprised people have confidence that a poll is an outlier now that unemployment has gone from 3% to 15+%. Why wouldn’t we expect a shift?
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ajc0918
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« Reply #17 on: April 14, 2020, 11:18:44 AM »
If Biden wins Arizona by this much then Texas is in play.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #18 on: April 14, 2020, 11:24:24 AM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on April 14, 2020, 11:18:44 AM
If Biden wins Arizona by this much then Texas is in play.

Texas would likely be a respectable Biden win by 4 or 5 points if past correlation predicts accurately. Arizona has typically voted about 5% to the left of Texas in the big ticket races for the past decade from President to Senate.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: April 14, 2020, 11:35:50 AM »
Democrats haven't done that well in Arizona since Truman in 1948.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #20 on: April 14, 2020, 11:59:39 AM »
Arizona is the new Virginia.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #21 on: April 14, 2020, 12:44:26 PM »
Outlier, but taken in the context of all recent AZ polling it's definitely tilting in Biden's direction.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #22 on: April 14, 2020, 12:48:03 PM »
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on April 14, 2020, 10:22:03 AM
The last time a toxic Republican incumbent ran for re-election in Maricopa County, they also lost by 13 points

um what Ford and HW won Marciopa and if your talking about Hoover , than he lost Maricopa by 30 points
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #23 on: April 14, 2020, 12:50:15 PM »
The Microsoft/MSN rolling poll has Biden+8 today in AZ.

There must be something going on there ...
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #24 on: April 14, 2020, 12:54:11 PM »



Very nice.
Go Joe!
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