ElectionProjection---huh?

[© tweed]

ElectionProjection updated their 2004 map a week ago.  Take a look:



Kerry 327 to Bush 211.

Are they nuts?  Florida and Ohio solid Kerry?  Missouri?

And the whopper:

Bush 45.48%, Kerry 52.69%


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The scary thing is...this site is right-leaning.

[opebo]

That's just silly, both in general, and definitely about Missouri.

[© tweed]

I heard a theory on the 'comments' section of that website that says the guys is doing this to energize the GOP base and overstating the Bush slump.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think they are nuts.. maybe they messed up... who knows.

[© tweed]

Back in December, this was their map:

[© tweed]

I think they are nuts.. maybe they messed up... who knows.

They didn't mess up.  They have a formula:

http://electionprojection.com/formula.html

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well then they are just nuts.

[© tweed]

Well then they are just nuts.

VERY possible

[California Dreamer]

What this site is doing is not solely looking at todays head to head polling but also factoring in 'right track/wrong track' and Job Approval. That makes sense.

The question is the weighting between the 3. Who is to say what the right weighting is...but I do agree that head to head alone isnt enough, especially this far out.

One thing that isnt clear is what they do with undecideds in the head to head numbers.

[Giant Saguaro]

I think somebody over there floats their boat upside down or something.

The thing is, I don't have a clue as to how they decide what states they're going to flip. And when they flip one, they flip 'em all. I haven't checked them since they flipped Nevada and Arizona, which I see they've flipped back. Florida is SOLID Kerry but WV is still Bush? And NH is lean Kerry and NM is SOLID Kerry? Nah...

I wish them the best, though, I know they're testing a forumla right now to see how accurate it is, but I don't see how it could be, but I'm no expert. Plus, he doesn't screen his polls for quality, I read.