Is Nevada really "trending blue"?

[jake_arlington]

Everybody throws this term around and it doesn't get challenged much, but yet...here's a handy graph (source):

[brucejoel99]

Yes, due to the influx of California transplants & its growing Hispanic population.

[Nyvin]

It has two out the three demographics that would indicate it should.   It's both urban and diverse, which would suggest it should trend Dem.   However, it's education level is god awful, which, recently, suggest it trend Republican. 

It's probably never going to be all that good of a fit for Republicans,  but it's not a state like Colorado that we'll see just run away from them permanently either.   

In a way it's kind of the inverse of New Hampshire,  which is somewhat rural and not diverse at all, while being very educated.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, along with NM, it has replaced OH and MO as the Bellwethers

[Stranger in a strange land]

Yes: every competitive election I've followed in Nevada since 2008 has gone the same way, and even Kerry overperformed his polls in 2004.

[YE]

2008 was an overperformance caused by the recession hence it's R trend (combined with a higher than one might think share of non-college educated voters) the last two cycles. But otherwise it's slowly drifting blue as Clark continues to grow.

[Jamison5]

Like many states, Nevada trended blue from 2000-2008 but have trended red since…
2008:D+5.2
2012:D+2.8
2016:D+0.3

Every county trended red in 2012, and every county except Elko County in 2016. Nevada was closer than the national vote in 2018 and the exit poll had Trump's approval at 48% (though it looks like the exit poll might have oversampled Republicans).

If Trump can maintain his strong rural numbers, win Washoe County by 1 point or more, and get within 8 or 9 points in Clark County, he can win it.

[Agonized-Statism]

I thought a Trump victory would include it in 2016. People are probably referring to the fact that demographics are becoming more favorable to Democrats there, which is true, but I think it'll always be Republicans' easiest southwest grab...maybe even before Arizona.

[LiberalDem19]

I think as older Latino voters get replaced by younger Latinos, we'll start to see a blue trend. But if the GOP goes back to ccompassionate conservatism it might stay stagnant