How does the IL GOP rebuild and retool?
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  How does the IL GOP rebuild and retool?
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Author Topic: How does the IL GOP rebuild and retool?  (Read 1344 times)
jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #25 on: April 14, 2020, 08:22:19 PM »

I don't see how it's possible in the foreseeable future without the suburbs and that ship seems to have sailed. Statewide, Republicans who can win the general can't win a primary and Republicans who can win a primary can't win a general. Case in point is IL-6. We'll see how Ives does against Casten, but my hunch is that it'll be pretty bad, while Kinzler probably could've kept it to 5.

Kinzler could not win statewide but I do agree with your general idea. Theoretically the GOP has a path to win statewide but any candidate who could compete statewide could not win a primary election.

I have little doubt that the collar counties, including Lake, could be carried by a Republican candidate. But I have severe doubts that they can carried by wide solid margins that would be needed to win statewide.
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PSOL
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« Reply #26 on: April 14, 2020, 10:35:30 PM »

Pray the Illinois Democratic Party imposes after Mike Madigan dies.

*implodes?
That's how I'd read it. Otherwise it doesn't make sense.
Damn autocorrect keeps doing it in for me.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #27 on: April 14, 2020, 10:37:01 PM »

Pray the Illinois Democratic Party imposes after Mike Madigan dies.

*implodes?
That's how I'd read it. Otherwise it doesn't make sense.
Damn autocorrect keeps doing it in for me.
I send my condolences. And I agree.
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S019
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« Reply #28 on: April 14, 2020, 11:17:33 PM »

Well, federally, they probably won't win for a while. The circumstances surrounding Kirk's win in 2010 were very abnormal, a federal race could be close-ish in a red wave, think like in 2014, but an outright win is very difficult, and will probably become even more difficult in the future, as the Collars continue to blue. However, Illinois Democrats seem to be perennially marred by corruption, so victories aren't impossible. On the gubernatorial level, it's a bit easier, simply due to less polarization and the corruption of the state party can be more easily tied to a state level race than a federal race. But, even then, it's still quite difficult. The short answer here is to run on opposition to the corruption of the IL Democratic Party and target statewide races, also running more liberal candidates would help, of course, if the national GOP continues to be dominated by Trumpism, then that will inevitably seep into the IL GOP, and a Trumpist candidate would almost certainly lose by a large margin, statewide. So, running a liberal/moderate candidate in a statewide race in a red wave, while highlighting the corruption of the IL Democrats seems like the most plausible path, but it's still an uphill battle, given the Democratic lean of the state.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #29 on: April 14, 2020, 11:20:20 PM »

Find a dem opponent for madigan as speaker, vote for him, get Term Limits out of it.
Would require Republicans to come within one vote of controlling the house. Not gonna happen

not at all, they just need a democrat speaker challenger to madigan, if that challenger can get 16 democrats to vote with them.
why on earth would they do that lmao

Madigan rules with an iron fist, you really think its hard to believe that 16 POLITICIANS, wouldn't turn their back on them to improve their station? They'd go from back benchers to chairs of important committees, we've seen this in plenty other states.

you realize that there are factions in the Illinois Dem. party right? people on the outside of Madigan who is a vindictive, punishing leader that a lot of reps hate and are looking for a jolt forward? right?
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Donerail
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« Reply #30 on: April 15, 2020, 10:01:53 AM »

not at all, they just need a democrat speaker challenger to madigan, if that challenger can get 16 democrats to vote with them.
why on earth would they do that lmao

Madigan rules with an iron fist, you really think its hard to believe that 16 POLITICIANS, wouldn't turn their back on them to improve their station? They'd go from back benchers to chairs of important committees, we've seen this in plenty other states.

you realize that there are factions in the Illinois Dem. party right? people on the outside of Madigan who is a vindictive, punishing leader that a lot of reps hate and are looking for a jolt forward? right?
You don't "improve your station" by defying MM, you condemn yourself to political irrelevancy. In your hypothetical, these people (who, to be clear, by and large owe their election to Madigan) suddenly revolt against him, unite with Republicans to take control of the House... then what? Govern with Republicans? That's a death sentence for Dems in blue districts, especially when Madigan will be putting up a well-funded primary challenger and you suddenly have to learn how to raise money on your own.

The "people on the outside of Madigan" are jokes and losers. You remember Scott Drury? How'd he do when he ran for AG? Heard from him lately?
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anthonyjg
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« Reply #31 on: April 15, 2020, 10:41:50 AM »

I don't see how it's possible in the foreseeable future without the suburbs and that ship seems to have sailed. Statewide, Republicans who can win the general can't win a primary and Republicans who can win a primary can't win a general. Case in point is IL-6. We'll see how Ives does against Casten, but my hunch is that it'll be pretty bad, while Kinzler probably could've kept it to 5.

Kinzler could not win statewide but I do agree with your general idea. Theoretically the GOP has a path to win statewide but any candidate who could compete statewide could not win a primary election.

I have little doubt that the collar counties, including Lake, could be carried by a Republican candidate. But I have severe doubts that they can carried by wide solid margins that would be needed to win statewide.

Agreed. The fact that DuPage is now represented entirely by Democrats is really astounding. It seems that Chicago suburbs are just a few decades behind New York suburbs which does not bode well for local Republicans at all.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #32 on: April 15, 2020, 10:59:13 AM »

Be pro-choice and run against Democratic corruption on the state level

This would work except the Illinois Republican Party is not exactly a clean party themselves. They also will have to wear the disaster that was Rauner's governorship (fairly or unfairly) for a long time.

If the choice is between two corruption-rife parties, voters will go with the one that is at least not overtly hostile to ordinary people (which is the reputation the IL GOP has earned themselves).
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