Is Ron DeSantis still presidential material?

[Skill and Chance]

Probably not.  There's a long history of very popular governors getting talked up for the WH and then either flaming out in scandal or just overstaying their welcome at the state level (Howard Dean, Mario Cuomo, Christie in NJ, McDonnell in VA, Pawlenty in MN, Walker in WI, Strickland in Ohio).

At this point I think DeSantis just loses to Fried in 2022.

In the scenario where he is most likely to win a 2nd term (an unpopular Biden presidency with a long term weak economy), the 2024 GOP primary will not favor a cheery pro-business Sunbelt suburbs campaign, but rather someone who can out populist Biden, including getting to his left on some economic issues to pick up some of the more socially conservative Bernie voters.

[Skill and Chance]

Too soon to tell. Very often, very early frontrunners and hopefuls never make it to the WH, while others come out of nowhere and win. Even just 1 year is a lifetime in politics. One scandal can change everything, one crisis can catapult someone else into the a group of frontrunners. Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Gary Hart, Howard Dean, Edmund Muskie are just a handful of contenders who looked promising but then failed badly.

Predicting how DeSantis would do if he ever runs 4 prez is pure speculation. My gut feeling is the 2024 GOP nominee will be someone we either don't or barely know, or someone we never thought would be there. No matter what happens in 2024. Especially if Trump loses, the 2024 GOP nominee is hardly predictable. Sure, it could be DeSantis, but he may not even make it into the year 2024 he announced his candidacy in spring 2023.

This is the correct answer. I think he's bounced back from his early Rona fumbles (and even they didn't hit his popularity that much) and he has plenty of time once this is over to do other things. His resume alone would still almost naturally make him a contender, but I do raise a question mark about your implication that he's the early frontrunner. He's thought of as a candidate, sure, but most of the early speculation seems to be about Pence and Haley.

Well, if Trump wins a 2nd term, the 2024 nomination is a done deal for Pence if he wants it.  Pence would likely have a rough time in the GE though.

[Skill and Chance]

Probably not.  There's a long history of very popular governors getting talked up for the WH and then either flaming out in scandal or just overstaying their welcome at the state level (Howard Dean, Mario Cuomo, Christie in NJ, McDonnell in VA, Pawlenty in MN, Walker in WI, Strickland in Ohio).

At this point I think DeSantis just loses to Fried in 2022.

In the scenario where he is most likely to win a 2nd term (an unpopular Biden presidency with a long term weak economy), the 2024 GOP primary will not favor a cheery pro-business Sunbelt suburbs campaign, but rather someone who can out populist Biden, including getting to his left on some economic issues to pick up some of the more socially conservative Bernie voters.

Fried is a great candidate, but the Agriculture Commissioner seat is at risk of flipping if she gives it up after one term. I think she’ll probably wait for 2026 when she’s term limited or run for Senate in 2024.

If Gwen Graham runs, she probably clears the field quickly and Fried would have no reason to challenge her.

Ehhh... vaguely rural flavored retreads have accomplished absolutely nothing for Sunbelt Dems in recent times (Bredesen, Edmondson, Perriello, Stacey Evans, Graham in 2018, etc.).  Better to go with the known quantity who won with the new coalition.