Probably not. There's a long history of very popular governors getting talked up for the WH and then either flaming out in scandal or just overstaying their welcome at the state level (Howard Dean, Mario Cuomo, Christie in NJ, McDonnell in VA, Pawlenty in MN, Walker in WI, Strickland in Ohio).
At this point I think DeSantis just loses to Fried in 2022.
In the scenario where he is most likely to win a 2nd term (an unpopular Biden presidency with a long term weak economy), the 2024 GOP primary will not favor a cheery pro-business Sunbelt suburbs campaign, but rather someone who can out populist Biden, including getting to his left on some economic issues to pick up some of the more socially conservative Bernie voters.
Fried is a great candidate, but the Agriculture Commissioner seat is at risk of flipping if she gives it up after one term. I think she’ll probably wait for 2026 when she’s term limited or run for Senate in 2024.
If Gwen Graham runs, she probably clears the field quickly and Fried would have no reason to challenge her.
