Would Gore have won 2004?

[Don Vito Corleone]

If Al Gore had won in 2000, would he have won re-election in 2004? Would 3 terms of one-party rule doom the Democrats in 2004, or would the rally around the flag effect and Gore being a wartime President save him? Or does it all come down to who the Republicans nominate?

[brucejoel99]

Looking at Gore's platform, the crucial difference between him & W. was over how to manage the surplus. W. obviously supported a large tax cut primarily aimed at high-income individuals. He also wanted to increase military spending & reform education (what became NCLB) & Medicare (Part D). Gore, on the other hand, wanted to pass a tax cut aimed at the middle class (similar to the proposal that Clinton campaigned on in 1992), a more expansive Medicare drug-coverage proposal, & a tougher version of NCLB. The reality was that neither candidate proposed anything too different from one another (hence why Nader managed to do as well as he did). Therefore, as President, you can expect Gore to pass his tax proposal, his equivalents of NCLB & Part D, & probably maintain a balanced budget in 2001.

However, 9/11 would obviously change everything. Gore would probably react similarly to how W. did in real life. There'd be a consolidation of the intelligence agencies, a version of the PATRIOT Act, & military intervention in Afghanistan. However, it's unlikely that there'd be any invasion of Iraq. Imagine a foreign policy similar to Obama's, with the focus on special ops & eliminating terror cells around the world.

On balance, Gore's 1st term would probably be seen as a success. Much like W., he'd be able to claim a tough response to 9/11 (which would probably still happen if the IC's lack of coordination between agencies, tepid responses to earlier attacks, & a failure to grasp the magnitude of the terrorists' ambitions are anything to go by). He'd campaign on the reforms that he passed & position himself in the political center. His Republican opponent (probably McCain) would probably have a tough time defeating him. Would the budget have remained balanced? Probably not, what with Afghanistan, the War on Terror, & the domestic programs that Gore could pass. Would Afghanistan have been a roaring success? Almost assuredly not. But Gore would still be able to claim a fairly strong resume. It'd be a fairly close election, but Gore could probably win re-election.

Of course, the next 4 years (as we all know) would be much tougher. How he responds to Katrina & the recession would likely determine his long-term legacy. The housing bubble would probably still pop, & Gore would probably be forced to bailout the financial giants. So the 2008 Republican nominee (Jeb?) would find their wings & break 16 years of Democratic rule.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Looking at Gore's platform, the crucial difference between him & W. was over how to manage the surplus. W. obviously supported a large tax cut primarily aimed at high-income individuals. He also wanted to increase military spending & reform education (what became NCLB) & Medicare (Part D). Gore, on the other hand, wanted to pass a tax cut aimed at the middle class (similar to the proposal that Clinton campaigned on in 1992), a more expansive Medicare drug-coverage proposal, & a tougher version of NCLB. The reality was that neither candidate proposed anything too different from one another (hence why Nader managed to do as well as he did). Therefore, as President, you can expect Gore to pass his tax proposal, his equivalents of NCLB & Part D, & probably maintain a balanced budget in 2001.

However, 9/11 would obviously change everything. Gore would probably react similarly to how W. did in real life. There'd be a consolidation of the intelligence agencies, a version of the PATRIOT Act, & military intervention in Afghanistan. However, it's unlikely that there'd be any invasion of Iraq. Imagine a foreign policy similar to Obama's, with the focus on special ops & eliminating terror cells around the world.

On balance, Gore's 1st term would probably be seen as a success. Much like W., he'd be able to claim a tough response to 9/11 (which would probably still happen if the IC's lack of coordination between agencies, tepid responses to earlier attacks, & a failure to grasp the magnitude of the terrorists' ambitions are anything to go by). He'd campaign on the reforms that he passed & position himself in the political center. His Republican opponent (probably McCain) would probably have a tough time defeating him. Would the budget have remained balanced? Probably not, what with Afghanistan, the War on Terror, & the domestic programs that Gore could pass. Would Afghanistan have been a roaring success? Almost assuredly not. But Gore would still be able to claim a fairly strong resume. It'd be a fairly close election, but Gore could probably win re-election.

Of course, the next 4 years (as we all know) would be much tougher. How he responds to Katrina & the recession would likely determine his long-term legacy. The housing bubble would probably still pop, & Gore would probably be forced to bailout the financial giants. So the 2008 Republican nominee (Jeb?) would find their wings & break 16 years of Democratic rule.

And what happens if Gore loses 2004?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

2010 would be a pretty good year for Dems I guess, with the GOP in Oval Office.

[brucejoel99]

snip

And what happens if Gore loses 2004?

Provided that Katrina & the financial crisis still hit (& the latter definitely would if the fundamental economic factors remain unchanged by 2005), McCain probably wouldn't have handled those events differently than W. It's worth remembering that one reason W. was slow to respond to Katrina was because he was busy with McCain's family in AZ celebrating his birthday. President McCain would probably take a relatively hands-off approach as he wraps up his private birthday celebrations before public criticism mounts & he pushes Congress to extend federal aid, though McCain, who prided himself on being a spending hawk, might be more strict with the amount & usage of federal funds (as a Senator, he resisted many efforts to help hurricane victims on the grounds that government spending was out of control). His popularity would decline accordingly &, once the recession hits in 2007, he's a one-termer.

Without Iraq, Hillary (& not Obama because he wouldn't have been able to count on an anti-war surge propelling him to the Senate in 2004) is the Democratic nominee in 2008, & she wins handily. That'd be really bad for the GOP: after 12 years of Democrats, they'd have only been able to score 4 years in the White House before the Democrats (& another Clinton, no less) managed to win again.

So, funnily enough, it was probably better for McCain's legacy that he never became President, because instead of going down in history as one of our great Senators, he would've (at least in this scenario) just taken credit for the failures that we associate with W. (e.g., Katrina, the Great Recession, etc.). He'd end up remembered like John Quincy Adams or Herbert Hoover: an amazing record before the Presidency, but not so great a record once he was actually in office.

[McGarnagle]

If Gore responded swiftly to 9/11, bin Laden was killed quickly, and Gore did not invade Iraq, I think he would have easily won re-election, by a similar margin to Obama in 2012.

The Republicans would have nominated John McCain, who would not have chosen Sarah Palin as his running mate but rather Tom Ridge.

Mitt Romney would win in 2008, defeating Vice President Lieberman after the great recession hits. Romney narrowly defeats Hillary Clinton in 2012, but Vice President Ryan loses to Barack Obama in 2016. Donald Trump runs in 2020, but his candidacy goes no further than Bloomberg's did. Obama is re-elected in a 2020 landslide over Ted Cruz.

2000 - Gore/Lieberman (D) defeats Bush/Cheney (R)
2004 - Gore/Lieberman (D) defeats McCain/Ridge (R)
2008 - Romney/Ryan (R) defeats Lieberman/Bayh (D)
2012 - Romney/Ryan (R) defeats Clinton/Warner (D)
2016 - Obama/Bennet (D) defeats Ryan/Rubio (R)
2020 - Obama/Bennet (D) defeats Cruz/Fiorina (R)

[brucejoel99]

The Republicans would have nominated John McCain, who would not have chosen Sarah Palin as his running mate but rather Tom Ridge.

Yeah, I think we could all agree that he wouldn't choose the then-former Mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, to be his Vice President.

[Tron1993]

If Gore responded swiftly to 9/11, bin Laden was killed quickly, and Gore did not invade Iraq, I think he would have easily won re-election, by a similar margin to Obama in 2012.

The Republicans would have nominated John McCain, who would not have chosen Sarah Palin as his running mate but rather Tom Ridge.

Mitt Romney would win in 2008, defeating Vice President Lieberman after the great recession hits. Romney narrowly defeats Hillary Clinton in 2012, but Vice President Ryan loses to Barack Obama in 2016. Donald Trump runs in 2020, but his candidacy goes no further than Bloomberg's did. Obama is re-elected in a 2020 landslide over Ted Cruz.

2000 - Gore/Lieberman (D) defeats Bush/Cheney (R)
2004 - Gore/Lieberman (D) defeats McCain/Ridge (R)
2008 - Romney/Ryan (R) defeats Lieberman/Bayh (D)
2012 - Romney/Ryan (R) defeats Clinton/Warner (D)
2016 - Obama/Bennet (D) defeats Ryan/Rubio (R)
2020 - Obama/Bennet (D) defeats Cruz/Fiorina (R)

Ryan was not that big in 2008…surely Romney would have picked a bigger name

[Rjjr77]

If Gore responded swiftly to 9/11, bin Laden was killed quickly, and Gore did not invade Iraq, I think he would have easily won re-election, by a similar margin to Obama in 2012.

The Republicans would have nominated John McCain, who would not have chosen Sarah Palin as his running mate but rather Tom Ridge.

Mitt Romney would win in 2008, defeating Vice President Lieberman after the great recession hits. Romney narrowly defeats Hillary Clinton in 2012, but Vice President Ryan loses to Barack Obama in 2016. Donald Trump runs in 2020, but his candidacy goes no further than Bloomberg's did. Obama is re-elected in a 2020 landslide over Ted Cruz.

2000 - Gore/Lieberman (D) defeats Bush/Cheney (R)
2004 - Gore/Lieberman (D) defeats McCain/Ridge (R)
2008 - Romney/Ryan (R) defeats Lieberman/Bayh (D)
2012 - Romney/Ryan (R) defeats Clinton/Warner (D)
2016 - Obama/Bennet (D) defeats Ryan/Rubio (R)
2020 - Obama/Bennet (D) defeats Cruz/Fiorina (R)

Does Obama even exist as any sort of rising star if Democrats are in control in 2004? probably not.

[dw93]

I think if someone other than McCain gets nominated, Gore gets re elected. If it's McCain, I think he narrowly beats Gore. I doubt Gore would get as much of a pass for 9/11 if it still happens as Bush had the excuse of only being in office for 8 months while Gore wouldn't have because a) He was VP in the Previous Administration b) FOX, Limbaugh, and the like would push propaganda that would tar and feather Gore. While I think Gore would respond better than Bush (more forceful in Afghanistan, probably gets Bin Laden by the end of '02, no Iraq war), the right wing propaganda machine would likely control the narrative. A better response from Gore also means we have more respect and credibility abroad than we did with Bush/Cheney.

Gore passes a moderate middle class tax cut, his versions of Medicare Part D and NCLB, and some modest environmental regulations.  The GOP makes slight gains in 2002 due to a weak economy and, again, right wing propaganda machines doing their damage. With this, if McCain is the nominee, he runs a Republican version of Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign (with a dash of National Security cred) and narrowly wins. If Giuliani, Huckabee, Allan, Ridge, or Pataki get nominated Gore Narrowly wins. He beats Ridge, Pataki, and Giuliani lose for being Pro Choice, Allan and Huckabee for being too right wing for the general and also in the case of Huckabee because the right won't be ready for right wing, nationalist populism. Jeb could possibly beat Gore to, but the taint of  a W. loss in 2000 and his father's in 1992 could sink him.

[Agonized-Statism]

President Al Gore (D-TN) / Vice President Joe Lieberman (D-CT)
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Fmr. Senator Connie Mack (R-FL) ✓

If Gore wins only by Florida.