Handicap the race: Trump vs. Biden

[SnowLabrador]

Safe Trump. Tens of millions of people, mostly Democrats, will be unable to safely vote due to coronavirus.

It's safer for Republicans to vote than Democrats?  Do they have extra antibodies or something?

Republicans will largely think that the virus is a hoax, or at least not as dangerous as scientists say it is. They're more likely to turn out than Democrats.

You think Coronavirus won't have died down by November?

It won't die down until there is a vaccine, and a vaccine is most likely still a year or more away.

If Coronavirus persists as a major problem, then the economy is certainly in the sh*tter, and that spells doom for Trump. Democrats are trying to get vote by mail anyway.

Source? I haven't seen anything that suggests Democrats are trying to get vote-by-mail, and even if they tried, McConnell would probably block it even if it was in a must-pass stimulus package.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-renew-vote-by-mail-push-as-virus-upends-elections/2020/04/09/8ad7d410-7a98-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html

It should be criminal to have a paywall at a time like this for important journalism, and yet it's there.

[brucejoel99]

Dependent on the economic situation at the time, but if I had to guess: Lean Biden, closer to Likely than Tilt.

[groundbreakingdaddy]

If you believe the race Tilts / Leans Biden, then put your money into the betting markets! They are currently pricing a 50-55% Trump Victory. Go with your conviction and make some money.

[pbrower2a]

for now, "Lean Biden" as I have seen all polls showing Biden a head by at least 3% (and he may need a full 3% because Democrats can be sure of running up votes in a few states while not doing so well elsewhere as in 2016).

The Quinnipiac poll showing 8% and the CNN poll showing 11% advantages for Biden may be showing an irreversible crash for Trump. At this point, all that says that Trump will not be defeated is mystical qualities of Donald Trump that liberals just do not understand and never will.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I am still going with tossup out of caution for future events in these next seven months.

It's looking better for Biden presently though. The reception for Trump's handling of the pandemic decreasing, that he is still deprived of his strong economy argument, and that the Democratic Party looks like it's going to unite earlier and more concretely are all beneficial to Biden's chances for now.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I would go as far as to say this race is Lean D. Literally the only thing keeping Trump competitive is that he is the incumbent and the idea that the polls were wrong in 2016 so they must be wrong again.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pure toss-up

[538Electoral]

Lean Trump as I think the tipping-point state will be about 3 points in Trump's favor.

[Lechasseur]

As of right now, I'd say Tilt Biden

[slothdem]

Lean Biden, but far closer to Likely than Tilt. The only real chance Trump has is if the 'rona makes things real weird.

You have to be real hack to think the candidate down 7(!) is favored.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I believe it is Likely Biden.
Biden is already ahead by high single-digits, and if you looks at the projections for Q2 and Q3, the economy will likely be in a state that would make any incumbent a massive underdog.

[morgankingsley]

Lean Biden but I would still put Trump as having a actual chance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt Biden, the fact, that he self inflicted a wound in WI which is a crucial battleground state, and doesn't support vote by mail balloting, is bad politics. A reelection is a referendum on the Prez and the coronavirus had decreased his chances to get reelected

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you believe the race Tilts / Leans Biden, then put your money into the betting markets! They are currently pricing a 50-55% Trump Victory. Go with your conviction and make some money.

He is losing in every natl poll and only ties Biden in a conservative poll Fox news