Handicap the race: Trump vs. Biden

[Bidenworth2020]

I have it at tilt Biden right now, lean-to-likely if the election were held today.

[SnowLabrador]

Safe Trump. Tens of millions of people, mostly Democrats, will be unable to safely vote due to coronavirus.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Safe Trump. Tens of millions of people, mostly Democrats, will be unable to safely vote due to coronavirus.

It's safer for Republicans to vote than Democrats?  Do they have extra antibodies or something?

[SnowLabrador]

Safe Trump. Tens of millions of people, mostly Democrats, will be unable to safely vote due to coronavirus.

It's safer for Republicans to vote than Democrats?  Do they have extra antibodies or something?

Republicans will largely think that the virus is a hoax, or at least not as dangerous as scientists say it is. They're more likely to turn out than Democrats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Competative but Biden is a slight favorite, a lot of Dominoes would have to fall Trump's way in order to win on election night, and Biden has a higher floor and will win the Safe Blue States + NM, CO, and VA no matter what pretty much. That being said Trump is the incumbent, and nothing realy seeems to ever hurt him. Mueller didn't hurt Trump, impeachment didn't hurt him, and coronavirus isn't hurting him (yet). Tilt Biden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Safe Trump. Tens of millions of people, mostly Democrats, will be unable to safely vote due to coronavirus.

It's safer for Republicans to vote than Democrats?  Do they have extra antibodies or something?

Republicans will largely think that the virus is a hoax, or at least not as dangerous as scientists say it is. They're more likely to turn out than Democrats.

No it's because Democrats fear the virus more because may live in cities and will be in closer proximity to people when they vote. Also, many Republicans genuinly believe the virus is a Democratic hoax, whihc is quite scary.

[Senator Spark]

Tilt Trump

[ProgressiveModerate]

This was a good statistical model I found online that's like the fivethirtyeight forecasts pretty much:

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/

It has Biden as a slight favorite but barely.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Tilt Trump, the election is a coin toss, but Trump gets to toss the coin

[Roll Roons]

Tilt to Lean Biden. I've had Trump as a slight underdog for a while. He's extremely divisive, and has made zero effort to reach out to people who didn't vote for him last time. His approval has been underwater since the beginning of his presidency, and whatever "rally around the flag" boost he got is nothing compared to most governors or leaders of other countries. With a recession, and likely a deep one, imminent, Trump's main argument for reelection is looking very shaky. Biden is also far less hated than Hillary, and is well-positioned to turn out blacks and peel back some WWC voters while holding onto Democratic gains in the suburbs of critical states.

On the other hand, who knows what'll happen with the virus for the rest of the year. It's possible that turnout could be depressed, or that the economy recovers quickly and voters credit Trump with it.

[indietraveler]

Tilt Biden

[Frenchrepublican]

Tilt Biden. (as of now) 

Trump has still some good cards in his hands (incumbency advantage + possible financial edge + a better turnout machine than in 2016) but his approval rate remains fairly low and half of the electorate will vote against him no matter what. It's not to say that polls which have him down by double digits are true but Trump has a real fight ahead of him if he wants a second term, to say the least

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Pure toss-up

[President Johnson]

Lean Biden.

I'm cautiously optimistic here that he can unseat Trump with a strong performance in the suburbs and increased African American tunout.

[ProudModerate2]

At this time I see: Tilt to Lean Biden, but closer to Lean than Tilt.
So my vote for this poll ... Lean Biden.

[Tender Branson]

Tilt Biden.

Trump’s incompetence is piling up, Americans want to get rid of him.

Unemployment is at 15-20% by the time of the election, his economy is in shambles.

American voters will remember the 2008 election when Biden was outfitted with 70 million votes already vs. just 60 for the Trump douche.

[The Other Castro]

Around 66% chance Biden.

[ProudModerate2]

Safe Trump. Tens of millions of people, mostly Democrats, will be unable to safely vote due to coronavirus.

It's safer for Republicans to vote than Democrats?  Do they have extra antibodies or something?

Republicans will largely think that the virus is a hoax, or at least not as dangerous as scientists say it is. They're more likely to turn out than Democrats.

If by election day (7 months from now), Republicans still believe it's a "hoax," then I don't know what to tell you about those bird-brains.
Your "Safe trump" vote in this poll, makes you look ... well, you know.

[AGA]

Safe Trump. Tens of millions of people, mostly Democrats, will be unable to safely vote due to coronavirus.

It's safer for Republicans to vote than Democrats?  Do they have extra antibodies or something?

Republicans will largely think that the virus is a hoax, or at least not as dangerous as scientists say it is. They're more likely to turn out than Democrats.

You think Coronavirus won't have died down by November?

[SnowLabrador]

Safe Trump. Tens of millions of people, mostly Democrats, will be unable to safely vote due to coronavirus.

It's safer for Republicans to vote than Democrats?  Do they have extra antibodies or something?

Republicans will largely think that the virus is a hoax, or at least not as dangerous as scientists say it is. They're more likely to turn out than Democrats.

You think Coronavirus won't have died down by November?

It won't die down until there is a vaccine, and a vaccine is most likely still a year or more away.

[AGA]

Safe Trump. Tens of millions of people, mostly Democrats, will be unable to safely vote due to coronavirus.

It's safer for Republicans to vote than Democrats?  Do they have extra antibodies or something?

Republicans will largely think that the virus is a hoax, or at least not as dangerous as scientists say it is. They're more likely to turn out than Democrats.

You think Coronavirus won't have died down by November?

It won't die down until there is a vaccine, and a vaccine is most likely still a year or more away.

If Coronavirus persists as a major problem, then the economy is certainly in the sh*tter, and that spells doom for Trump. Democrats are trying to get vote by mail anyway.

[SnowLabrador]

Safe Trump. Tens of millions of people, mostly Democrats, will be unable to safely vote due to coronavirus.

It's safer for Republicans to vote than Democrats?  Do they have extra antibodies or something?

Republicans will largely think that the virus is a hoax, or at least not as dangerous as scientists say it is. They're more likely to turn out than Democrats.

You think Coronavirus won't have died down by November?

It won't die down until there is a vaccine, and a vaccine is most likely still a year or more away.

If Coronavirus persists as a major problem, then the economy is certainly in the sh*tter, and that spells doom for Trump. Democrats are trying to get vote by mail anyway.

Source? I haven't seen anything that suggests Democrats are trying to get vote-by-mail, and even if they tried, McConnell would probably block it even if it was in a must-pass stimulus package.

[Podgy the Bear]

This is tilt to lean Biden right now, and the odds will continue to grow in his favor with the crashing economy. 

[AGA]

Safe Trump. Tens of millions of people, mostly Democrats, will be unable to safely vote due to coronavirus.

It's safer for Republicans to vote than Democrats?  Do they have extra antibodies or something?

Republicans will largely think that the virus is a hoax, or at least not as dangerous as scientists say it is. They're more likely to turn out than Democrats.

You think Coronavirus won't have died down by November?

It won't die down until there is a vaccine, and a vaccine is most likely still a year or more away.

If Coronavirus persists as a major problem, then the economy is certainly in the sh*tter, and that spells doom for Trump. Democrats are trying to get vote by mail anyway.

Source? I haven't seen anything that suggests Democrats are trying to get vote-by-mail, and even if they tried, McConnell would probably block it even if it was in a must-pass stimulus package.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-renew-vote-by-mail-push-as-virus-upends-elections/2020/04/09/8ad7d410-7a98-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe Biden, either Biden wins a 278 EC map or 413 landslide, Trump is finished