Which GOP major urban/suburban counties will be Dem by 2030?

[Roronoa D. Law]

I think most people agree these will flip by 2030: Madison AL, Anchorage AK, Maricopa AZ, Washington AR, Duval FL, Seminole FL, Fayette GA, Ada ID, McHenry IL, Dallas IA, Johnson KS, Shawnee KS, Fredrick MD, Kent MI, Clay MO, Hillsborough NH, New Hanover NC, Cass ND, Delaware OH, Oklahoma OK, Deschutes OR, Marion OR, Nueces TX, Hays TX, Tarrant TX, Collin TX, Denton TX, Williamson TX, Chesapeake VA, Chesterfield VA, VA Beach VA, Jame City VA, Stafford VA.


But what other counties would likely flip by the end of this decade?

[brucejoel99]

The rapidly diversifying, increasingly college-educated Orange County, CA, where the GOP's platform no longer resonates as it once did.

[Roll Roons]

Campbell in KY, Jefferson in LA, Morris in NJ to name a few more that are similar to the ones you listed. Maybe even one of the WOW counties in WI? Ozaukee seems the most likely, followed by Waukesha and then Washington.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Comal, TX. Maybe Somerset, NJ and Rockingham, NH.

[Del Tachi]

Maricopa AZ
Duval FL
Fayette GA
Kendall IL
Jefferson LA
Johnson KS
Kent MI
Madison MS
Clay MO
Hays TX
Tarrant TX
Williamson TX
Chesapeake VA
Chesterfield VA
Virginia Beach VA

Meanwhile, major DEM urban/suburban counties that will go Dem by 2030:

Genesee MI
Oakland MI
Washington MN
Dakota MN
Atlantic NJ
Erie NY
Nassau NY
Lorain OH
Mahoning OH
Lackawanna PA

[vileplume]

I think most people agree these will flip by 2030: Madison AL, Anchorage AK, Maricopa AZ, Washington AR, Duval FL, Seminole FL, Fayette GA, Ada ID, McHenry IL, Dallas IA, Johnson KS, Shawnee KS, Fredrick MD, Kent MI, Clay MO, Hillsborough NH, New Hanover NC, Cass ND, Delaware OH, Oklahoma OK, Deschutes OR, Marion OR, Nueces TX, Hays TX, Tarrant TX, Collin TX, Denton TX, Williamson TX, Chesapeake VA, Chesterfield VA, VA Beach VA, Jame City VA, Stafford VA.


But what other counties would likely flip by the end of this decade?

I think it's quite likely that most of these will vote Democratic at some point, perhaps this year if Trump loses by a lot.

However trends do not go on for ever and in order to win the presidency post Trump the GOP will have to find a way to reconnect with areas like these as becoming increasingly dependant on white, rural America is not sustainable long term. A winning Republican presidential candidate in the 2030s will be carrying all (or virtually all) of these counties as well as clawing back ground in suburban areas that have already been lost.

There's quite a good chance of a Democratic trifecta come January next year which could very well be maintained for four years of a Biden presidency (the 2022 Senate map is not favourable to the GOP and the House may prove challenging to win back too). Provided that the Democrats actually use this opportunity to pursue real change and not squander the opportunity infighting (as arguably they did in the 111th congress) it will force the Republicans to adapt to the new political reality as the Democrats had to after the Reagan Revolution. Thus the next successful Republican presidential candidate will very likely be appealing to groups that are as of now totally off limits to the GOP meaning the map and trends will look very different to now. 

[Sol]

I think most people agree these will flip by 2030: Madison AL, Anchorage AK, Maricopa AZ, Washington AR, Duval FL, Seminole FL, Fayette GA, Ada ID, McHenry IL, Dallas IA, Johnson KS, Shawnee KS, Fredrick MD, Kent MI, Clay MO, Hillsborough NH, New Hanover NC, Cass ND, Delaware OH, Oklahoma OK, Deschutes OR, Marion OR, Nueces TX, Hays TX, Tarrant TX, Collin TX, Denton TX, Williamson TX, Chesapeake VA, Chesterfield VA, VA Beach VA, Jame City VA, Stafford VA.


But what other counties would likely flip by the end of this decade?

Why are you assuming that all of these would flip by 2030? Even if current trends continue (not a given!) some of these are still fairly GOP leaning and would require some pretty heavy lifting or a big Democratic landslide to flip.

This is like saying that Oneida County is guaranteed Safe D for 2020 in 2013--it's extrapolation based on current trends without recognizing possible realignments.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I think most people agree these will flip by 2030: Madison AL, Anchorage AK, Maricopa AZ, Washington AR, Duval FL, Seminole FL, Fayette GA, Ada ID, McHenry IL, Dallas IA, Johnson KS, Shawnee KS, Fredrick MD, Kent MI, Clay MO, Hillsborough NH, New Hanover NC, Cass ND, Delaware OH, Oklahoma OK, Deschutes OR, Marion OR, Nueces TX, Hays TX, Tarrant TX, Collin TX, Denton TX, Williamson TX, Chesapeake VA, Chesterfield VA, VA Beach VA, Jame City VA, Stafford VA.


But what other counties would likely flip by the end of this decade?

Why are you assuming that all of these would flip by 2030? Even if current trends continue (not a given!) some of these are still fairly GOP leaning and would require some pretty heavy lifting or a big Democratic landslide to flip.

This is like saying that Oneida County is guaranteed Safe D for 2020 in 2013--it's extrapolation based on current trends without recognizing possible realignments.

All the counties I've listed are counties that have already shown willingness to vote Democrat as recently as 2018 or counties that are demographically becoming unfavorable to Republicans. Counties like Collin, Fayette, and Tarrant are counties experience excremental growth and becoming more diverse. Yes, a realignment can and will likely happen before 2030 but I don't see Republicans chipping away at the black vote or returning to Bush levels of Hispanics and educated white women this decade.

Plus i'm confused about on why you will choose Oneida county. All the counties I have listed are growing in population and economy. Oneida is whiter and less educated than all these counties. If anything it should remain and trend Republican.

[Sol]

I think most people agree these will flip by 2030: Madison AL, Anchorage AK, Maricopa AZ, Washington AR, Duval FL, Seminole FL, Fayette GA, Ada ID, McHenry IL, Dallas IA, Johnson KS, Shawnee KS, Fredrick MD, Kent MI, Clay MO, Hillsborough NH, New Hanover NC, Cass ND, Delaware OH, Oklahoma OK, Deschutes OR, Marion OR, Nueces TX, Hays TX, Tarrant TX, Collin TX, Denton TX, Williamson TX, Chesapeake VA, Chesterfield VA, VA Beach VA, Jame City VA, Stafford VA.


But what other counties would likely flip by the end of this decade?

Why are you assuming that all of these would flip by 2030? Even if current trends continue (not a given!) some of these are still fairly GOP leaning and would require some pretty heavy lifting or a big Democratic landslide to flip.

This is like saying that Oneida County is guaranteed Safe D for 2020 in 2013--it's extrapolation based on current trends without recognizing possible realignments.

All the counties I've listed are counties that have already shown willingness to vote Democrat as recently as 2018 or counties that are demographically becoming unfavorable to Republicans. Counties like Collin, Fayette, and Tarrant are counties experience excremental growth and becoming more diverse. Yes, a realignment can and will likely happen before 2030 but I don't see Republicans chipping away at the black vote or returning to Bush levels of Hispanics and educated white women this decade.

Plus i'm confused about on why you will choose Oneida county. All the counties I have listed are growing in population and economy. Oneida is whiter and less educated than all these counties. If anything it should remain and trend Republican.

My point about Oneida was to illustrate the futility of forward-projecting in this manner--much of upstate New York swung and trended to Obama fairly strongly in 2012. I suppose Franklin or St. Lawrence County would have been a better example since they had been trending D for longer than Oneida.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Fayette has a lot of old whites moving in so I'm not sure it will ever become what Cobb and Gwinnett are but it might be a swing county.
Anyway, Brazos seems to fit this desscription

[iceman]

Kern, CA
Linn, OR
Tuscaloosa, AL
Maricopa, AZ
Pinal, AZ
Washington, AR
Weld, CO
Seminole, FL
Duval, FL
Dallas, IA
Clay, MO
Morris, NJ
Oklahoma, OK
Chesterfield, VA
Ozaukee, WI

[iceman]

on the flip side: DEM to GOP

Lorain, OH
Bucks, PA
Nassau, NY
Erie, NY
St. Clair, IL
Plymouth, MA
Washington, MN
St. Louis, MN
Mahoning, OH
Eau Claire, WI
LaCrosse, WI

[Ernacius]

Sarpy County, NE

[Hope For A New Era]

I'm not so sure about Clay County, MO flipping soon. Probably St. Charles County will go first, and then Clay and Platte will flip together a bit later. That's just based on the general feeling I get thinking about them.

In a Dem landslide, maybe Adair could flip too. Obama nearly did it in 2008.

Greene County, on the other hand, is totally immovable in presidential races, despite its urbanization. Just too religious, I guess.

[TJ in Oregon]

Kern, CA
Linn, OR
Tuscaloosa, AL
Maricopa, AZ
Pinal, AZ
Washington, AR
Weld, CO
Seminole, FL
Duval, FL
Dallas, IA
Clay, MO
Morris, NJ
Oklahoma, OK
Chesterfield, VA
Ozaukee, WI

Most of these seem reasonable but Linn, OR stands out as a very strange choice. I guess you could call it urban or suburban in some sense, but it's mostly a few small cities with a very blue collar flavor. If anything, it seems poised to get more Republican with the current trends.

[Del Tachi]

I'm not so sure about Clay County, MO flipping soon. Probably St. Charles County will go first, and then Clay and Platte will flip together a bit later. That's just based on the general feeling I get thinking about them.

In a Dem landslide, maybe Adair could flip too. Obama nearly did it in 2008.

Greene County, on the other hand, is totally immovable in presidential races, despite its urbanization. Just too religious, I guess.

McCaskill and Kander both won Clay.  Clinton did about 7pts better in Clay than St. Charles

[Frenchrepublican]

I think most people agree these will flip by 2030: Madison AL, Anchorage AK, Maricopa AZ, Washington AR, Duval FL, Seminole FL, Fayette GA, Ada ID, McHenry IL, Dallas IA, Johnson KS, Shawnee KS, Fredrick MD, Kent MI, Clay MO, Hillsborough NH, New Hanover NC, Cass ND, Delaware OH, Oklahoma OK, Deschutes OR, Marion OR, Nueces TX, Hays TX, Tarrant TX, Collin TX, Denton TX, Williamson TX, Chesapeake VA, Chesterfield VA, VA Beach VA, Jame City VA, Stafford VA.


But what other counties would likely flip by the end of this decade?

Not so sure about these two counties.

Madison is still in Alabama and Alabama whites are not going to become more democratic friendly over the next few years, so unless the county becomes majority non-white it's hard to see this county flipping.
Delaware is trending D obviously but, still, the county remains largely white and should remain republican, especially in downballot races.

[Frenchrepublican]

on the flip side: DEM to GOP

Lorain, OH
Bucks, PA
Nassau, NY
Erie, NY
St. Clair, IL
Plymouth, MA
Washington, MN
St. Louis, MN
Mahoning, OH
Eau Claire, WI
LaCrosse, WI

Nassau ? Have you looked at the demographics ? The county is less than 60% white and many of them are college educated.

[walleye26]

on the flip side: DEM to GOP

Lorain, OH
Bucks, PA
Nassau, NY
Erie, NY
St. Clair, IL
Plymouth, MA
Washington, MN
St. Louis, MN
Mahoning, OH
Eau Claire, WI
LaCrosse, WI

No way that Eau Claire and LaCrosse flip unless UW-EC and UW-L get destroyed. Washington, MN isn’t either.

[Smash255]

on the flip side: DEM to GOP

Lorain, OH
Bucks, PA
Nassau, NY
Erie, NY
St. Clair, IL
Plymouth, MA
Washington, MN
St. Louis, MN
Mahoning, OH
Eau Claire, WI
LaCrosse, WI

Nassau ? Have you looked at the demographics ? The county is less than 60% white and many of them are college educated.

As one of those college educated whites in Nassau, I would agree.  I don't see how Nassau County goes Republican.  It actually trended Democratic in 2016 (albeit slightly) went Suffolk trended fairly Republican.  It likely isn't going back to Clinton 96 or Gore 2000 type margins either, but it will remain a Democratic leaning county.