MT Congressional Redistricting (user search)
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April 29, 2024, 12:36:34 PM
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  MT Congressional Redistricting (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Will Republicans safely hold 2 Montana seats?
#1
Yes - Leftier district will be at least Likely R
 
#2
No - Western district will be Lean R at worst for Dems
 
#3
Montana will not actually gain a second seat
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 115

Author Topic: MT Congressional Redistricting  (Read 22481 times)
Roll Roons
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« on: April 26, 2021, 05:36:20 PM »
« edited: April 27, 2021, 01:17:24 AM by Roll Roons »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/93ef9a79-f68e-4edc-8292-e0c057e6c045

So now that Montana's officially regaining a second seat, I gave it a go with an East-West map.

The eastern district (MT-02) is very much safe R. The only spots where Democrats are remotely competitive are downtown Billings and some reservation areas.

But the western district (MT-01) is interesting. Trump only won it by around 8 points against Hillary, while Tester in 2018 and Bullock in 2016 both carried it by double digits. I doubt Biden won it, but it was likely within 5 points. I think this would be a true swing district, although there are some very favorable trends for Democrats in Missoula and Bozeman.
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Roll Roons
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Posts: 10,038
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2021, 03:06:32 PM »

Not sure if this has been asked, but is it possible to create a clean-looking MT-01 that voted for Biden? Or would the bluest district have voted for Trump by low single digits?
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Roll Roons
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Posts: 10,038
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2021, 01:23:38 PM »

What would the western district's partisanship be - Trump +2 or something?
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