MT Congressional Redistricting

[Heir of Camelot]

Quist won the West by 5 points in '17. It would be tilt D at the Congressional level and might even go blue at the Presidential level for a non-Hillary type candidate. Obama would have won the West in '08 for example.

I've heard rumors that it might not be strict East-West since western Montana now has significantly more people than Eastern but instead a safer D district would be formed. The rumor I've heard is that Flathead Co. would end up in the "Eastern" half with Billings etc. and Gallatin would be in the West forming 2 safe districts for Republicans and Democrats respectively.

I would personally hate this because I enjoy competitive races and I'd like to see strong Dem candidates that can win tough races instead of just anyone the party decides on because it's "their turn" and its a safe district etc.

Should be interesting to see how this shakes out.

[Heir of Camelot]

The rumor I heard is they will carve out Kalispell to make a bluer Western district but we'll see.

I don't believe Amanda Curtiss or Kathleen Williams will be the candidate. Both are 2-time losers who don't garner much enthusiasm. I feel like it will be a new face. I have my eye on several dark horses.

[Heir of Camelot]

Yeah I agree, after pulling out a map and eyeballing it closely. Getting Missoula, Bozeman, Helena and Butte in the same district is I'm sure what they are trying to do here.

[Heir of Camelot]

Butte is one of the bluest districts in the state. This surprised me as well but it has a long union, mining history. It produced Amanda Curtis. It's not going red anytime soon.

[Heir of Camelot]

If anything I think Butte will get even more Liberal when Millenials move in and buy up all the victorian houses and fix them up and make them all hipster heaven. It will gentrify.

If they put Kalispell and Billings in the same district it will be such a b*tch to campaign in. With gas and food/bathroom breaks it's basically a ten hour drive. Kalispell is actually about the same distance away from Seattle as Billings.

[Heir of Camelot]

Yes and the current MT-AL absolutely blows for campaigning. The NW and SE corners of Montana are about the same distance apart as driving from SE Montana to Texas, no joke.

I want straight up East-West divide like last time. 2 winnable districts for both sides. No need to get cute.

[Heir of Camelot]

Western MT will go blue for a good Dem Congressional candidate even though it's Tossup for Presidential elections.

Quist, Tester and Bullock have all won Western MT recently.

It will be interesting to see how they draw it up.

[Heir of Camelot]

Western Montana is not trending rightwards. Hillary was just a horrible fit here and all the Berniecrats sat out the general (the disdain for Hillary was palpable and Bernie dominated the primary). Let's see the Biden numbers before we call anything a trend. I bet Biden wins it.

Bozeman is shifting leftwards quickly, as is Whitefish. Missoula is basically Portland and it will dominate the Western half the way Billings will dominate the East.

Furthermore, Butte is solidly D, as is Dear Lodge and West Yellowstone and Livingston (depending on how they draw it). Columbia Falls is drifting that way (It has chosen Democrat Zac Perry the last 2 cycles). Whitefish went 70% D for Dave Fern in the last election. Quist even won Kalispell and made it interesting in Hamilton (the two red Hamlets). Shrill Neo Liberals could still lose it of course but guys like Tester, Bullock, Quist will win it all day.

[Heir of Camelot]

Look at the Whitefish '18 numbers though. A lot of the new residents have arrived since 2016. For example Dave Fern (D) from HD 5, which is all of Whitefish.

2016
Dave Fern 56.7%
Opponent  43.2%
D+13

2018
Dave Fern 69.1%
Opponent 30.9%
D+38

So that's a 25 point swing in 2 years. They are building houses in Whitefish like crazy and the majority of residents moving in are hipsters from Washington and Colorado etc. and they bring their progressive voting patterns with them.

Tester won Senate District 3 (Whitefish and N. Kalispell) in 2018 by 4 points whereas incumbent Keith Regier won it by 13 points in '16. That's a 17 point swing in 2 years.

[Heir of Camelot]

Obama may have won Missoula by 18 points but Statewide candidates like Rob Quist for example, regularly win it by over 30 points and Gallatin Co. by 14 points. That's where most of the people in W. MT live.

Quist also won Silver Bow county (Butte) by over 30 points and Deer Lodge County by 35 points. He won Glacier county, where his hometown Cutbank is as well as the Blackfeet reservation in neighboring Browning by 40 points. That's a lot of Blue.

[Heir of Camelot]

Yes, and 2016 numbers are completely useless. Western MT population is exploding. Especially after Covid. The Realtors in Gallatin and Flathead counties are slammed right now (myself included).

[Heir of Camelot]

I worked on the Quist campaign and actually knocked doors in Ravalli, Hamilton to be precise.

I found a surprisingly good reception there. I even knocked a Republican door who said he was voting for a Dem for the first time in his life that election. The results bore that out. I think it is getting slightly less red than in the past. Gianforte still won in by 25 points or so though so it's not flipping any time soon obviously.

[Heir of Camelot]

That map would be my dream scenario. I will be so annoyed if Flathead County ends up with Billings in the Eastern District.

Supposedly they are having a really hard time getting the Natives to fill out the census so this whole discussion could end up being moot.

[Heir of Camelot]

https://flatheadbeacon.com/2021/05/05/redrawing-district-lines/?fbclid=IwAR2Qa_ROoy4Rr2VTTW_i8EUpXP8ItQdVLp7n-ghXY44uE_ch9xjVvksnj68

This came out in the Flathead Beacon this morning. I think it will be reasonably close to this.

[Heir of Camelot]

I like Proposal 4. Put Kalispell in the East (where it's culturally more aligned) and leave the rest of the mountain west in tact. Bozeman should not be in the east under any circumstances and punishing Whitefish because of Kalispell seems unfair.

[Heir of Camelot]

Sadly I think this is Zinke's seat for as long as he wants it.

The Dems are running an incredibly weak slate of candidates for the nomination so far. The MDP seems to be in disarray with a new leader every year. It's a complete about face from a few years ago when they controlled the Governor's Mansion for 16 years and both the Senate seats.

One of the issues is all the Covid refugees piling in from Texas and Florida and other QAnon nuts from blue states. A few harsh winters will send them scurrying back though.