MT Congressional Redistricting

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Would y'all say a county split is inevitable this time around?

Here's a way to avoid splitting any counties while making both districts contiguous and keeping the difference in population between the two districts under 1000:

District 1: Lincoln, Flathead, Glacier, Toole, Liberty, Hill, Pondera, Teton, Sanders, Lake, Mineral, Missoula, Powell, Lewis and Clark, Ravalli, Granite, Deer Lodge, Silver Bow, Jefferson, Beaverhead, Madison

District 2: Blaine, Phillips, Valley, Daniels, Sheridan, Roosevelt, Richland, Dawson, McCone, Wibaux, Prairie, Garfield, Petroleum, Fergus, Chouteau, Judith Basin, Cascade, Meagher, Broadwater, Gallatin, Park, Sweet Grass, Wheatland, Golden Valley, Stillwater, Carbon, Big Horn, Powder River, Carter, Fallon, Custer, Rosebud, Treasure, Yellowstone, Musselshell

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Now that Republicans swept statewide races this year in MT, does anyone think they will move to change redistricting rules to enable them to make both districts strongly R-leaning in the event that the state regains its second congressional seat?

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This seems like the cleanest map, no county splits and almost all the Native American population is in MT-2 (for whatever that's worth).






https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ee8c186-bb8e-4fe5-9aba-21e276830b1b

Exluding the flathead area it's even geographically consistent,  keeping the Long Mountain to Custer NF areas with the mountainous west.

This isn't made to maximize Dem votes in the western district either.

I wholeheartedly endorse this map.

The only potential points of contention I can think of associated with this map are: (1) it splits the Flathead Reservation (part of it is in Missoula County, which is separate from the other parts in Flathead, Lake, and Sanders counties) and (2) it separates Mineral and Missoula counties, which are connected with each other by the same major interstate highway (90).

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This seems like the cleanest map, no county splits and almost all the Native American population is in MT-2 (for whatever that's worth).






https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ee8c186-bb8e-4fe5-9aba-21e276830b1b

Exluding the flathead area it's even geographically consistent,  keeping the Long Mountain to Custer NF areas with the mountainous west.

This isn't made to maximize Dem votes in the western district either.

Not bad: Trump +2.51 in 2020 (49.92-47.41).

Here are some downballot results from 2020 under this configuration:

Race	District 1	District 2
Senate	D+3.8	R+25.52
House	D+0.7	R+27.88
Governor	D+0.84	R+29.23
Secretary of State	R+5.78	R+34.04
Attorney General	R+2.66	R+33.02
State Auditor	R+2.2	R+31.22
State Superintendent of Public Instruction	D+4.34	R+22.7

It would appear that Lewis and Clark County would serve as the "bellwether" for District 1 under this configuration.

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https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

Not denying that, just explaining to atlas why its probably a bad map.

You have to break up the mountains at some point anyway, there's too much population in the west.   Plus "following the mountains" as they're suggesting breaks up Native reservations.

No it doesn't really break up any reservations. Flathead does not include the Blackfeet native reservation. And yes you do have to break up the mountains but clearly there are more relatively flatter areas near Bozeman/Helena. Kalispell/Whitehead is in the core of the mountain region.There are areas in Flathead which have like 12% native bordering the reservation but its like 42 Native Americans who live like a whole hour away.

 To go on further your map actually splits the Flathead reservation slightly as it goes into Missoula County a bit at least looking at this map. Although the Flathead reservation is more integrated than other reservations which is interesting.
http://opi.mt.gov/Educators/Teaching-Learning/Indian-Education-for-All/Indian-Education-General-Information

Easy enough fix but that then breaks the rule of no county splits if you want to defend the map on that ground. Not that 1 county split is unreasonable.

I did acknowledge that my proposed configuration splits this particular reservation. But then again, it appears that this particular reservation is over two-thirds white, unlike other major MT reservations which are majority nonwhite (which in turn means that this reservation is much more Republican-leaning than other major MT reservations), and the part in Missoula County is not a very significant portion of the reservation overall (here, I would define a "significant" split as 25% or more of the land area being in multiple districts).

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Not sure if this has been asked, but is it possible to create a clean-looking MT-01 that voted for Biden? Or would the bluest district have voted for Trump by low single digits?

Available data suggests that it would take extreme gerrymandering to create a district which voted D at the presidential level here in MT (the district would be shaped like a snake/worm and stretch from the NE Plains to the northern Rockies back down to the southern Rockies and ending in the SE Plains).

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How does the independent lean? This seems like an AZ/NJ style commission where the tiebreaker chooses a partisan leaning map.

This individual has donated to Democratic candidates/groups before, and is also a person of color (in this case, a Native American). However, the reservation she represents is the only one out of the seven major MT reservations that is not a virtual lock for Democrats in most elections.

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The idea that putting Gallatin County in the east is just as egregious as excluding NW Montana is nonsense, and any non-hackish observer will confirm this irrespective of their partisan affiliation. I would personally prefer the 'Great Falls/Helena east, Flathead and Gallatin west' compromise (with some adjustments to equalize population if necessary), but it’s honestly remarkable how Democrats always succeed at stacking these commissions with the most partisan hacks (and Joe Lamson is really a class of his own in this regard).

I’m also not aware of any requirement that districts need to be "as competitive as possible" (weird way of phrasing "compact," but I digress...).

If they really do opt for that D sink, I hope the GOP can pull off something similar in NH.

The GOP is already making plans to draw out Pappas per scoops from multiple outlets, including POLITICO and the CW has been that they'd do that, really since they gained the trifecta given that Ann Kuster's strength means they probably won't win both seats in the foreseeable future, so locking in a 1-1 would really help them.

Also not every commission has D hacks, AZ is probably going to be R leaning, and NJ was R leaning in 2012 (though will probably be D leaning this time due to both Governor Murphy and the anticipated Democratic takeover of the state Supreme Court).

Also I don't that map is really a D sink it was Trump+8, while Tester and Bullock did better, 2020 indicated that MT's ticket splitting tradition might be coming to an end. It'd probably be a tossup seat.

Also I drew the GOP proposal here: https://davesredistricting.org/join/343a5e9c-df80-4d07-b2fe-3d260a80f3d3

Western district is Trump+17, Bullock+7, Tester+6

The configuration that puts the northern Rockies into MT-02 along with the Plains will indeed make MT-01 a swing district, and as I mentioned earlier in this thread, it was a split decision in 2020, with four Democratic (Senate, House, Governor, and Superintendent of Public Instruction) and four Republican (President, Attorney General, State Auditor, and Secretary of State) statewide candidates winning it (and the key county is Lewis & Clark - in 2020, whichever candidate won L&C also won this set of counties overall). Thus, it can also be said that L&C is one place where ticket-splitting is still very much alive and well.

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The idea that putting Gallatin County in the east is just as egregious as excluding NW Montana is nonsense, and any non-hackish observer will confirm this irrespective of their partisan affiliation. I would personally prefer the 'Great Falls/Helena east, Flathead and Gallatin west' compromise (with some adjustments to equalize population if necessary), but it’s honestly remarkable how Democrats always succeed at stacking these commissions with the most partisan hacks (and Joe Lamson is really a class of his own in this regard).

I’m also not aware of any requirement that districts need to be "as competitive as possible" (weird way of phrasing "compact," but I digress...).

If they really do opt for that D sink, I hope the GOP can pull off something similar in NH.

The GOP is already making plans to draw out Pappas per scoops from multiple outlets, including POLITICO and the CW has been that they'd do that, really since they gained the trifecta given that Ann Kuster's strength means they probably won't win both seats in the foreseeable future, so locking in a 1-1 would really help them.

Also not every commission has D hacks, AZ is probably going to be R leaning, and NJ was R leaning in 2012 (though will probably be D leaning this time due to both Governor Murphy and the anticipated Democratic takeover of the state Supreme Court).

Also I don't that map is really a D sink it was Trump+8, while Tester and Bullock did better, 2020 indicated that MT's ticket splitting tradition might be coming to an end. It'd probably be a tossup seat.

Also I drew the GOP proposal here: https://davesredistricting.org/join/343a5e9c-df80-4d07-b2fe-3d260a80f3d3

Western district is Trump+17, Bullock+7, Tester+6

The configuration that puts the northern Rockies into MT-02 along with the Plains will indeed make MT-01 a swing district, and as I mentioned earlier in this thread, it was a split decision in 2020, with four Democratic (Senate, House, Governor, and Superintendent of Public Instruction) and four Republican (President, Attorney General, State Auditor, and Secretary of State) statewide candidates winning it (and the key county is Lewis & Clark - in 2020, whichever candidate won L&C also won this set of counties overall). Thus, it can also be said that L&C is one place where ticket-splitting is still very much alive and well.

What were the Senate, Governor, House, and President margins?

President: R+2.51
Senate: D+3.8
House: D+0.7
Governor: D+0.84
Secretary of State: R+5.78
Attorney General: R+2.66
State Auditor: R+2.2
Superintendent of Public Instruction: D+4.34

For Lewis and Clark County:

President: R+3.94
Senate: D+3.3
House: D+0.01
Governor: D+2.48
Secretary of State: R+7.87
Attorney General: R+1.56
State Auditor: R+2.06
Superintendent of Public Instruction: D+6.52

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https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-politics/commission-parties-gear-up-for-battle-over-mts-congressional-districts?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

Everyone obviously so far agrees on East vs West split. Democrats want to create a district that is competitive and they proposed the Cascade Falls West but Kalispell East map. The GOP prefers excluding Bozeman .
We all know how this is going to end anyway.

That article says "and there is no big Democrat out there, sitting there, that could jump into the race at the last minute and have a massive impact"- but I can't help but wonder if Steve Bullock would have a run at the seat if it looks in reach?

So far, Bullock has indicated an unwillingness to run for this seat when contacted by media outlets this year. As I indicated earlier, however, I think the most likely scenario where he might change his mind (like he did with running for Senate in 2020) is if his hometown of Helena is drawn into the more Democratic-friendly district (which is the case in some, but not all, maps being circulated around the internet).

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Update: With the release of granular 2020 Census data, it just became much more difficult to draw a map which both splits 0 counties and keeps the population difference between the two districts under 1000. Based on my previous map, I had to swap Powell County for Judith Basin County in order to get a population difference of 375 between the two districts. Thus, the counties in MT-01 under this configuration would be as follows:

Beaverhead
Broadwater
Cascade
Deer Lodge
Gallatin
Granite
Silver Bow
Jefferson
Judith Basin
Lewis and Clark
Madison
Meagher
Missoula
Park
Ravalli

Now, I know the main sticking point with this configuration involves Powell in MT-02 being surrounded by MT-01 counties on all but one side (which makes it look rather unpleasant), but under this configuration, MT-01 would still be a highly competitive district, with Lewis & Clark County still being the bellwether for the entire district based on 2020 results.

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Update: With the release of granular 2020 Census data, it just became much more difficult to draw a map which both splits 0 counties and keeps the population difference between the two districts under 1000. Based on my previous map, I had to swap Powell County for Judith Basin County in order to get a population difference of 375 between the two districts. Thus, the counties in MT-01 under this configuration would be as follows:

Beaverhead
Broadwater
Cascade
Deer Lodge
Gallatin
Granite
Silver Bow
Jefferson
Judith Basin
Lewis and Clark
Madison
Meagher
Missoula
Park
Ravalli

Now, I know the main sticking point with this configuration involves Powell in MT-02 being surrounded by MT-01 counties on all but one side (which makes it look rather unpleasant), but under this configuration, MT-01 would still be a highly competitive district, with Lewis & Clark County still being the bellwether for the entire district based on 2020 results.

Is this roughly Trump +7?

Actually, in 2020 this configuration would have produced the following results:

President: R+2.3
US Senate: D+4
US House: R+0.46
Governor: D+1

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Both seats will be Republican if the independent redistricting commission is truly nonpartisan

At the presidential level, yes. Downballot, however, one of the districts could be D-leaning (for example, a district containing all four Democratic strongholds - Bozeman, Butte, Helena, and Missoula - would have been slightly D-leaning downballot in 2020, with Democratic candidates for Senate, Governor, Superintendent of Public Instruction, and possibly House all winning such a configuration).

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Both seats will be Republican if the independent redistricting commission is truly nonpartisan
(Though full disclosure - without hindsight, before the new district numbers came out for 2021-2031, I was pretty sure MT was going to stay at one at-large seat, not gain a second one, so I would've then gone with option 3.)

Yes, it seems Republicans on this board think that every redistricting decision everywhere should always favor Republicans.

It's almost like this weird per-conceived notion that redistricting is intended to be a benefit for Republicans exclusively.   It's really kinda strange.

I'm by most definitions a RINO who's heavily opposed to the gerrymandering the GOP has done in places like TX. But in a state like Montana it's common sense for two Democratic districts, just as it's common sense for two Democratic districts in a state like Rhode Island. How would you react if a Republican insinuated it was 'fair' for their to be one reddish district in Rhode Island, and then blasted you as a hyperpartisan hack when you said that RI should, based on its political geography, have two blue districts? It's the same logic. Now, if the GOP tried to gerrymander KS or NE to make the districts containing Omaha and Kansas City redder, I'd certainly oppose that, because it seems reasonable / makes sense, given those state's political geographies, for their to be one blue district in both states. In Montana that's not the case; one would have to literally pack all of MT's blue regions into a single district and remove all really red areas in order to get a competitive district, which is anethma to the very nature of an independent redistricting commission. Next you'll be saying their ought to be one competitive district in Idaho.

In the case of Idaho, current political conditions make it impossible to create any districts which are even remotely unfavorable toward Republicans. Perhaps we can have this discussion if and when the state gets a third district (in which case a competitive district centered around Boise could be created). On the other hand, current political conditions make it possible to create a blue-violet district in RI and a red-violet district in MT while keeping district shapes relatively compact in both of these instances.

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https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/politics/deadline-looming-for-decision-on-montanas-new-congressional-map/article_4177c88d-b55b-5368-a99b-293aaa22b179.html






Rs are  mostly  sticking with their initial compromise offer. They just removed Jefferson and placed the rest of Bozeman. Dems finally realized that Kalispell should obviously be in the Western district(It is west of the divide after all unlike Helena/Bozeman) But still are sticking with a Trump +2.5 district by forcing both Bozeman and Helena to be in the district.

I mean it is pretty obvious that the chair will just pick the Dem proposal so I have no idea why she wants to keep pushing this decision along.

At this point, is it definitely true that one of these two maps will be the final map, or is it still possible that the final map could be something different from these two? (For the purposes of this question, even one precinct being shifted from one side to the other would count as something different.)