MT Congressional Redistricting

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This seems like the cleanest map, no county splits and almost all the Native American population is in MT-2 (for whatever that's worth).






https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ee8c186-bb8e-4fe5-9aba-21e276830b1b

Exluding the flathead area it's even geographically consistent,  keeping the Long Mountain to Custer NF areas with the mountainous west.

This isn't made to maximize Dem votes in the western district either.

This must be parody, right?

I wholeheartedly endorse this map.

Of course you do.

Dude, you’re not fooling anyone.  Just admit that you’re salty about TML’s fair map making more sense than the Republican gerrymander you posted.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

Not denying that, just explaining to atlas why its probably a bad map.

Even with that commission, we’re probably not going to get a district stretching from Billings to Kalispell. Every serious person is going to recognize that for what it is (an amateurish attempt at a blatantly obvious D gerrymander), and in a two-district state in which you have historical precedent for this, that’s going to be a lot harder to mask than in AZ. Republicans don’t have much leverage when it comes to the commission (although I hope Gianforte pushes for a more aggressive overhaul of the judicial system, not that I think his administration has done a bad job so far), but they do have some leverage when it comes to other legislation (maybe something to keep in mind by the time the next Gianforte veto has to be overriden). I mean, maybe I’m wrong and Democrats are right to feel really confident about this district, but I don’t think we’re going to get any map that (a) splits Yellowstone County but excludes the entire Flathead Valley or (b) excludes the Flathead area but packs Missoula, Bozeman, and Helena into one district. Since the geography & long-term trends largely favor Democrats in any western district anyway, I doubt you’re going to see such an aggressive push. They’d have a good chance of winning any MT-1 with NW Montana in it in a neutral year and/or with a D incumbent as well, so it’s not like that district would be unwinnable for them.

Bottom line: While by no means impossible and no one can say for sure, it would be pretty unprecedented for that commission to create the kinds of D gerrymanders that have been proposed in this thread. Yes, they will likely opt for Gallatin/Park > Lewis & Clark/Cascade to be in MT-1 (the trends are way more favorable for Democrats in that area), but that’s likely as far as they will go.

You hope

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For what it's worth, you have to dip slightly into Missoula County in order not to split the Flathead Reservation. But a tiny variation on proposal 2 (below) does keep all of the reservations together in the eastern district.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/552f8e51-e1c9-4a6a-9b3e-f75afc4597f8

MT-01: 542,113 (0), Trump+32, 13.7% Native
MT-02: 542,112 (-1), Trump+2

Looks fair to me!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Inb4 forumlurker rant about how dems are spineless

Jdb as well.

Why would I do that?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1458167233109233671

Small amendment.

Why?