MT Congressional Redistricting

[MT Treasurer]

It’s going to be impossible to draw two districts which are Safe R "locally," and there’s a good chance a "Western" district will be competitive in presidential elections as well.

Does the commission require whole-county districts? Looking at it on a map, it seems like the most natural option would be to carve out Bozeman but leave most of the rest of Gallatin County in the western district.

Yeah, it would look a lot like this, and I’d argue it’s one of the "cleanest" maps:



Not sure why no one posted a similar version. Bozeman being in the second district might be a headache for the GOP, but there’s really not that much wiggle room.

[MT Treasurer]

The rumor I heard is they will carve out Kalispell to make a bluer Western district but we'll see.

Honestly, given trends and growth patterns, carving out Kalispell and ensuring that the rest of Flathead Co. is in the second district is probably the only way you can create two non-competitive districts (only way Rs might flip MT-01 is in a R wave year, and even then it would be close).

That said, I’m pretty sure the commission will try their best to stick to the boundary lines of the counties/towns, so that would make Oryxslayer's maps more likely than mine or yours. We’ll just have to see, I guess.

[MT Treasurer]

(The GOP/white district was Trump +36 & Gianforte +9 in 2016, Rosendale +11 in 2018 & Trump +33 in 2020)

This would be a gross D gerrymander which even this "independent" commission almost certainly wouldn’t go for. Splitting Yellowstone County and shoving Billings into MT-1 while not even touching NW Montana is a dead giveaway.

It’s a fun exercise, but you can just draw a more "compact" seat that would go D in a D-leaning or neutral year without splitting Yellowstone County.

Anyway, the only interesting question here is whether Gallatin will be split or Helena will be in the eastern district.

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

Not denying that, just explaining to atlas why its probably a bad map.

Even with that commission, we’re probably not going to get a district stretching from Billings to Kalispell. Every serious person is going to recognize that for what it is (an amateurish attempt at a blatantly obvious D gerrymander), and in a two-district state in which you have historical precedent for this, that’s going to be a lot harder to mask than in AZ. Republicans don’t have much leverage when it comes to the commission (although I hope Gianforte pushes for a more aggressive overhaul of the judicial system, not that I think his administration has done a bad job so far), but they do have some leverage when it comes to other legislation (maybe something to keep in mind by the time the next Gianforte veto has to be overriden). I mean, maybe I’m wrong and Democrats are right to feel really confident about this district, but I don’t think we’re going to get any map that (a) splits Yellowstone County but excludes the entire Flathead Valley or (b) excludes the Flathead area but packs Missoula, Bozeman, and Helena into one district. Since the geography & long-term trends largely favor Democrats in any western district anyway, I doubt you’re going to see such an aggressive push. They’d have a good chance of winning any MT-1 with NW Montana in it in a neutral year and/or with a D incumbent as well, so it’s not like that district would be unwinnable for them.

Bottom line: While by no means impossible and no one can say for sure, it would be pretty unprecedented for that commission to create the kinds of D gerrymanders that have been proposed in this thread. Yes, they will likely opt for Gallatin/Park > Lewis & Clark/Cascade to be in MT-1 (the trends are way more favorable for Democrats in that area), but that’s likely as far as they will go.

[MT Treasurer]

"I've seen the district I posted put up by other Democratic activists elsewhere* a couple times now, I really don't think excluding Flathead is as 'toxic' as some here are making it out to be."

*read: on Twitter

[MT Treasurer]

The idea that putting Gallatin County in the east is just as egregious as excluding NW Montana is nonsense, and any non-hackish observer will confirm this irrespective of their partisan affiliation. I would personally prefer the 'Great Falls/Helena east, Flathead and Gallatin west' compromise (with some adjustments to equalize population if necessary), but it’s honestly remarkable how Democrats always succeed at stacking these commissions with the most partisan hacks (and Joe Lamson is really a class of his own in this regard).

I’m also not aware of any requirement that districts need to be "as competitive as possible" (weird way of phrasing "compact," but I digress...).

If they really do opt for that D sink, I hope the GOP can pull off something similar in NH.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans don’t think every redistricting decision everywhere should favor the GOP (that’s a hackish/ridiculous straw man), they just take issue with the heart of the GOP base (Flathead County/NW Montana) being packed into MT-02 to create a D-leaning seat in the western part of the state. That’s all.