MT Congressional Redistricting

[Adam Griffin]

(The GOP/white district was Trump +36 & Gianforte +9 in 2016, Rosendale +11 in 2018 & Trump +33 in 2020)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting factoid: If MT-01 and MT-02 were ressurected, with the same lines as they did in the 1980s, the western district would have almost 200,000 more people than the eastern one.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0d23d928-a398-4074-9f71-18ad3b7098ba

1970s would have even larger population disparity: 220,000
https://davesredistricting.org/join/04ef7c1e-cdf8-426e-8d7f-0c6c24093730

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/DannyTenenbaum/status/1387169717090066432?s=20 lmfao

[MT Treasurer]

(The GOP/white district was Trump +36 & Gianforte +9 in 2016, Rosendale +11 in 2018 & Trump +33 in 2020)

This would be a gross D gerrymander which even this "independent" commission almost certainly wouldn’t go for. Splitting Yellowstone County and shoving Billings into MT-1 while not even touching NW Montana is a dead giveaway.

It’s a fun exercise, but you can just draw a more "compact" seat that would go D in a D-leaning or neutral year without splitting Yellowstone County.

Anyway, the only interesting question here is whether Gallatin will be split or Helena will be in the eastern district.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Here is a Dem gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DannyTenenbaum/status/1387169717090066432?s=20 lmfao

https://twitter.com/MTGOP/status/1387185931552116739

The MT GOP is claiming the dems made it

[Adam Griffin]

(The GOP/white district was Trump +36 & Gianforte +9 in 2016, Rosendale +11 in 2018 & Trump +33 in 2020)

This would be a gross D gerrymander which even this "independent" commission almost certainly wouldn’t go for. Splitting Yellowstone County and shoving Billings into MT-1 while not even touching NW Montana is a dead giveaway.

It’s a fun exercise, but you can just draw a more "compact" seat that would go D in a D-leaning or neutral year without splitting Yellowstone County.

Anyway, the only interesting question here is whether Gallatin will be split or Helena will be in the eastern district.

Not sure I really get the controversy over splitting a state's largest county (even in MT). Eighty percent of Yellowstone voters are contained within one district (including virtually all of Billings proper), and the remainder of the county is a land mass twice the size of Rhode Island with 40,000 people living in it.

I would have expected you to be much more upset about Helena!

[Skill and Chance]

BTW the commission is in the state constitution, so it would take a 2/3rds majority of both chambers to put an amendment on the ballot to modify/overrule it.  Republicans do not have 2/3rds in the state senate, so they are stuck with what the commission produces. 

[Adam Griffin]

Since my original map went for a combo of population density & Democratic performance, here's another that just focuses on starting in Glorious NW Montana and including the densest counties possible while minimizing square mileage for CD1 as a whole.

(Adding Gallatin would require splitting it anyway + making CD1 a bit larger in square mileage)

[Nyvin]

This seems like the cleanest map, no county splits and almost all the Native American population is in MT-2 (for whatever that's worth).






https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ee8c186-bb8e-4fe5-9aba-21e276830b1b

Exluding the flathead area it's even geographically consistent,  keeping the Long Mountain to Custer NF areas with the mountainous west.

This isn't made to maximize Dem votes in the western district either.

[Adam Griffin]

This seems like the cleanest map, no county splits and almost all the Native American population is in MT-2 (for whatever that's worth).






https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ee8c186-bb8e-4fe5-9aba-21e276830b1b

Exluding the flathead area it's even geographically consistent,  keeping the Long Mountain to Custer NF areas with the mountainous west.

This isn't made to maximize Dem votes in the western district either.

Not bad: Trump +2.51 in 2020 (49.92-47.41).

[TML]

This seems like the cleanest map, no county splits and almost all the Native American population is in MT-2 (for whatever that's worth).






https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ee8c186-bb8e-4fe5-9aba-21e276830b1b

Exluding the flathead area it's even geographically consistent,  keeping the Long Mountain to Custer NF areas with the mountainous west.

This isn't made to maximize Dem votes in the western district either.

I wholeheartedly endorse this map.

The only potential points of contention I can think of associated with this map are: (1) it splits the Flathead Reservation (part of it is in Missoula County, which is separate from the other parts in Flathead, Lake, and Sanders counties) and (2) it separates Mineral and Missoula counties, which are connected with each other by the same major interstate highway (90).

[Skill and Chance]

This seems like the cleanest map, no county splits and almost all the Native American population is in MT-2 (for whatever that's worth).






https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ee8c186-bb8e-4fe5-9aba-21e276830b1b

Exluding the flathead area it's even geographically consistent,  keeping the Long Mountain to Custer NF areas with the mountainous west.

This isn't made to maximize Dem votes in the western district either.

Not bad: Trump +2.51 in 2020 (49.92-47.41).

Trying to find 2016 numbers.  Was it Trump+7 2016?  If so, this would likely be a Dem leaning district presidentially by 2028.

[Adam Griffin]

This seems like the cleanest map, no county splits and almost all the Native American population is in MT-2 (for whatever that's worth).






https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ee8c186-bb8e-4fe5-9aba-21e276830b1b

Exluding the flathead area it's even geographically consistent,  keeping the Long Mountain to Custer NF areas with the mountainous west.

This isn't made to maximize Dem votes in the western district either.

Not bad: Trump +2.51 in 2020 (49.92-47.41).

Trying to find 2016 numbers.  Was it Trump+7 2016?  If so, this would likely be a Dem leaning district presidentially by 2028.

According to the DRA link via OP, it was Trump +7.2 in 2016 (49.4-42.2).

[TML]

This seems like the cleanest map, no county splits and almost all the Native American population is in MT-2 (for whatever that's worth).






https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ee8c186-bb8e-4fe5-9aba-21e276830b1b

Exluding the flathead area it's even geographically consistent,  keeping the Long Mountain to Custer NF areas with the mountainous west.

This isn't made to maximize Dem votes in the western district either.

Not bad: Trump +2.51 in 2020 (49.92-47.41).

Here are some downballot results from 2020 under this configuration:

Race	District 1	District 2
Senate	D+3.8	R+25.52
House	D+0.7	R+27.88
Governor	D+0.84	R+29.23
Secretary of State	R+5.78	R+34.04
Attorney General	R+2.66	R+33.02
State Auditor	R+2.2	R+31.22
State Superintendent of Public Instruction	D+4.34	R+22.7

It would appear that Lewis and Clark County would serve as the "bellwether" for District 1 under this configuration.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/DannyTenenbaum/status/1387169717090066432?s=20 lmfao

I presume you can't travel from each end of the blue district without travelling through the green one or Idaho? I'm looking particularly at Ravalli County.

[bagelman]

Has anyone made that in DRA?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Has anyone made that in DRA?

As of now, yes.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9cdaaa2e-83ce-4fde-b527-7058d5745dc5
This map was brought to you by the precinct splitting tool.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Has anyone noticed it is possible, under 2019 figures, to avoid having any county splits by having all of Western Montana sans Gallatin form the 1st and the rest of the state form the 2nd?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Obviously not every district can be "ideal" or anything but in a 2 district state its fairly simple to decide. In a larger state I can definitely see sacrifices being made to protect the rest of the map such as how Wisconsin can't really keep the Fox River valley together despite it being a very nice COI that fits because it would really screw up the rest of the map big time.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

Not denying that, just explaining to atlas why its probably a bad map.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

Not denying that, just explaining to atlas why its probably a bad map.

You have to break up the mountains at some point anyway, there's too much population in the west.   Plus "following the mountains" as they're suggesting breaks up Native reservations.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

Not denying that, just explaining to atlas why its probably a bad map.

You have to break up the mountains at some point anyway, there's too much population in the west.   Plus "following the mountains" as they're suggesting breaks up Native reservations.

No it doesn't really break up any reservations. Flathead does not include the Blackfeet native reservation. And yes you do have to break up the mountains but clearly there are more relatively flatter areas near Bozeman/Helena. Kalispell/Whitehead is in the core of the mountain region.There are areas in Flathead which have like 12% native bordering the reservation but its like 42 Native Americans who live like a whole hour away.

[Sol]

Yeah any fair map worth its salt has to have Kalispell in the Western district, it's a bad map otherwise.