MT Congressional Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Anyone know what happened to Montana's legislative districts?

[lfromnj]

Again from what I can tell new legislative districts have not passed, is there any reason why it is taking this long?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Again from what I can tell new legislative districts have not passed, is there any reason why it is taking this long?

If I knew, I'd tell you.
Perhaps there's infighting in the local GOP? That's my best guess in the abstract.

[lfromnj]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/yeargain/status/1532026268287385601[/tweet

Ah finally its explained.

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/yeargain/status/1532026268287385601

Ah finally its explained.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1598543160921280514?cxt=HHwWhMC-jaKila8sAAAA

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e89899d3-fc18-4e5b-99a6-9e77d1ac9211

Montana legislative maps just came out, should remove the GOP supermajorities they just picked up. 57 Trump 43 Biden seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1598543160921280514?cxt=HHwWhMC-jaKila8sAAAA

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e89899d3-fc18-4e5b-99a6-9e77d1ac9211

Montana legislative maps just came out, should remove the GOP supermajorities they just picked up. 57 Trump 43 Biden seats.

Wtf happened? Did the tiebreaker have to choose between a D and an R gerrymander? That seems like some very aggressive cracking of Missoula and Bozeman to squeeze out a bunch of D-leaning seats. Gives me vibes of the MI State House map on steroids.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1598543160921280514?cxt=HHwWhMC-jaKila8sAAAA

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e89899d3-fc18-4e5b-99a6-9e77d1ac9211

Montana legislative maps just came out, should remove the GOP supermajorities they just picked up. 57 Trump 43 Biden seats.

Wtf happened? Did the tiebreaker have to choose between a D and an R gerrymander? That seems like some very aggressive cracking of Missoula and Bozeman to squeeze out a bunch of D-leaning seats. Gives me vibes of the MI State House map on steroids.

Given downballot results in Western MT, Democrats could plausibly control a chamber after a wave.  Wow!

Continues the theme of Democrats generally getting better legislative maps and Republicans generally getting better congressional maps from officially neutral processes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1598543160921280514?cxt=HHwWhMC-jaKila8sAAAA

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e89899d3-fc18-4e5b-99a6-9e77d1ac9211

Montana legislative maps just came out, should remove the GOP supermajorities they just picked up. 57 Trump 43 Biden seats.

Wtf happened? Did the tiebreaker have to choose between a D and an R gerrymander? That seems like some very aggressive cracking of Missoula and Bozeman to squeeze out a bunch of D-leaning seats. Gives me vibes of the MI State House map on steroids.

Given downballot results in Western MT, Democrats could plausibly control a chamber after a wave.  Wow!

Continues the theme of Democrats generally getting better legislative maps and Republicans generally getting better congressional maps from officially neutral processes.

But this feels like a pretty clear gerrymander; Dems are very purposefully unpacked. It wasn't like they just got lucky with key decisions in some key seats.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1598543160921280514?cxt=HHwWhMC-jaKila8sAAAA

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e89899d3-fc18-4e5b-99a6-9e77d1ac9211

Montana legislative maps just came out, should remove the GOP supermajorities they just picked up. 57 Trump 43 Biden seats.

Wtf happened? Did the tiebreaker have to choose between a D and an R gerrymander? That seems like some very aggressive cracking of Missoula and Bozeman to squeeze out a bunch of D-leaning seats. Gives me vibes of the MI State House map on steroids.

Given downballot results in Western MT, Democrats could plausibly control a chamber after a wave.  Wow!

Continues the theme of Democrats generally getting better legislative maps and Republicans generally getting better congressional maps from officially neutral processes.

But this feels like a pretty clear gerrymander; Dems are very purposefully unpacked. It wasn't like they just got lucky with key decisions in some key seats.

FWIW for the congressional maps, both parties presented drafts to the tiebreaker, she gave feedback which they could incorporate into a final map, and then she made a binding choice between the final maps.  For congress, she chose the Republican map because they were willing to give more ground by proposing a Trump +7 all-Western MT seat in line with state traditions instead of going for an ahistorical north/south split that would have made both districts equally R.  Democrats insisted on splitting more counties than necessary to keep Bozeman, Missoula, and Helena together in a seat Trump barely won. 

I presume the tiebreaker must have picked the Dem map for the legislature. 

It is worth noting that R's can unilaterally put constitutional amendments on the ballot with a 2/3rds majority.  I suppose they could try to abolish the commission and take mapping power back, but I highly doubt it would pass.  Since these are legislative maps, any SCOTUS ruling in the NC ISL case would be irrelevant.

[Epaminondas]

Will the Repubs actually let this pro-Dem map stand without any rat-f*ery like everywhere else?
That would be a pleasant surprise.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1598543160921280514?cxt=HHwWhMC-jaKila8sAAAA

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e89899d3-fc18-4e5b-99a6-9e77d1ac9211

Montana legislative maps just came out, should remove the GOP supermajorities they just picked up. 57 Trump 43 Biden seats.

Wtf happened? Did the tiebreaker have to choose between a D and an R gerrymander? That seems like some very aggressive cracking of Missoula and Bozeman to squeeze out a bunch of D-leaning seats. Gives me vibes of the MI State House map on steroids.

Given downballot results in Western MT, Democrats could plausibly control a chamber after a wave.  Wow!

Continues the theme of Democrats generally getting better legislative maps and Republicans generally getting better congressional maps from officially neutral processes.

But this feels like a pretty clear gerrymander; Dems are very purposefully unpacked. It wasn't like they just got lucky with key decisions in some key seats.

It's definitely a D gerrymander - Those lines in Bozeman aren't natural at all.  Also they split Whitefish in two when it fits in one district fine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1598543160921280514?cxt=HHwWhMC-jaKila8sAAAA

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e89899d3-fc18-4e5b-99a6-9e77d1ac9211

Montana legislative maps just came out, should remove the GOP supermajorities they just picked up. 57 Trump 43 Biden seats.

Wtf happened? Did the tiebreaker have to choose between a D and an R gerrymander? That seems like some very aggressive cracking of Missoula and Bozeman to squeeze out a bunch of D-leaning seats. Gives me vibes of the MI State House map on steroids.

Given downballot results in Western MT, Democrats could plausibly control a chamber after a wave.  Wow!

Continues the theme of Democrats generally getting better legislative maps and Republicans generally getting better congressional maps from officially neutral processes.

But this feels like a pretty clear gerrymander; Dems are very purposefully unpacked. It wasn't like they just got lucky with key decisions in some key seats.

FWIW for the congressional maps, both parties presented drafts to the tiebreaker, she gave feedback which they could incorporate into a final map, and then she made a binding choice between the final maps.  For congress, she chose the Republican map because they were willing to give more ground by proposing a Trump +7 all-Western MT seat in line with state traditions instead of going for an ahistorical north/south split that would have made both districts equally R.  Democrats insisted on splitting more counties than necessary to keep Bozeman, Missoula, and Helena together in a seat Trump barely won. 

I presume the tiebreaker must have picked the Dem map for the legislature. 

It is worth noting that R's can unilaterally put constitutional amendments on the ballot with a 2/3rds majority.  I suppose they could try to abolish the commission and take mapping power back, but I highly doubt it would pass.  Since these are legislative maps, any SCOTUS ruling in the NC ISL case would be irrelevant.

What looks like the likeliest seat #51 for Democrats, in your view?