MT Congressional Redistricting

[politicallefty]

The proposed map is almost identical to the compromise map I posted on page 9. It looks like maybe a precinct or two different in Pondera County. I think it's the best way to have a western COI district and keep it as competitive as possible. The SW MT district was really basically a pipe dream for Democrats. It's hard to argue for putting Flathead County in the eastern district, which is what is necessary to get the Trump margin down to 2-3 points.

I don't think Democrats played their hand badly. They were stubborn, but that's generally worked for Republicans in almost everything they do (where Democrats keep compromising themselves down). The initial Republican maps were all intent on putting Bozeman in the eastern district, leaving the western district as a double digit Trump district. This compromise proposal is at a far more reasonable number that is potentially competitive with a strong Democratic candidate. They really should take the offer in the end though. There's not going to be a better map than this.

How did Obama do in the western District?

I don't have the exact numbers, but it looks like Obama won it by a couple points in 2008 and lost it by mid-high single digits in 2012 (looks like roughly the same margin as 2020).

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting.  Seems Dem commissioners (and a couple clearly left-leaning I's) keep blowing it by pushing too hard.

Gallatin and Glacier Counties did end up wholly in the western district and it's obviously much closer to competitive than what the legislature would have drawn.  Also Helena has been pretty R-leaning presidentially for a while now. 

Honestly seems like the door is being slammed shut for Dems anywhere they rely on ancestral rural support.  Maybe it will be different in the West, but I'm not sure it even matters what MT draws at this point?

[politicallefty]

Interesting.  Seems Dem commissioners (and a couple clearly left-leaning I's) keep blowing it by pushing too hard.

Gallatin and Glacier Counties did end up wholly in the western district and it's obviously much closer to competitive than what the legislature would have drawn.  Also Helena has been pretty R-leaning presidentially for a while now. 

Honestly seems like the door is being slammed shut for Dems anywhere they rely on ancestral rural support.  Maybe it will be different in the West, but I'm not sure it even matters what MT draws at this point?

Let's see what happens first. If the Dem commissioners don't take this deal, they'll have really f-cked up. This is a very fair and reasonable map for a state like Montana. The legislature would've put Bozeman in the eastern district and probably Deer Lodge and Silver Bow as well. Their goal would've been to have both districts approximate the statewide vote while maintaining an East/West divide. I don't think even they would've had the gall to attempt a North/South split, especially when it isn't necessary (unless you think Eastern MT voters are more reliably Republican, which might be true to certain extent).

I don't see the door being shut for Democrats in a place like Western Montana. Biden's numbers were roughly the same as Obama's in 2012. If you look at the swings in Montana compared to 2016, Biden improved significantly over Clinton, especially in the cities (namely Missoula and Bozeman, but even Flathead County had a decent swing to Biden). Gallatin County was actually a Romney-Clinton-Biden county (also the lone county in Montana that swung her way compared to 2012).

[lfromnj]

Yeah Democrats were stubborn and got a "win" but less than expected because Smith didn't agree to splitting the Continental Divide or splitting both Bozeman/Helena at least to many people's surprises other than Torie.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Dems should have just stuck with the compact district with all of Lewis and Clark and Gallatin and without flathead. That at least looked ok(d leaning but not egregious)

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1458167233109233671

Small amendment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1458167233109233671

Small amendment.

Why?

[lfromnj]

https://www.publicnewsservice.org/2021-11-08/civic-engagement/opposition-from-tribes-as-mt-chooses-congressional-voting-map/a76436-1

Tribes and groups like Western Native Voice have asked for at least two tribes in each congressional districts. The final map does this, but Perez called it "pandering."

"Both tribes and our organization have been on the record as far as saying that that isn't enough, that there also needs to be at least one competitive district," said Perez. "And that within that competitive district, that there be at least two tribal nations."

Perez said the redistricting process has mostly been transparent. However, he said he thinks that changed after the original nine maps were thrown out, leaving commissioners to scramble to design new ones.

[lfromnj]

Dems should have just stuck with the compact district with all of Lewis and Clark and Gallatin and without flathead. That at least looked ok(d leaning but not egregious)

Smith had a demand that 2 tribes be placed in the western district which was a demand by the tribes but she decided not to follow their more partisan demand of there being a pure competitive district as that required an absurd gerrymander rather than just the move of placing either Bozeman or Helena to the east.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1458167233109233671

Small amendment.

Why?

https://app.mydistricting.com/legdistricting/comments/plan/33/23

Seems to only take the reservation part of the split county. A bit of extra deviation involved(+-1500 people)

A few hundred net votes that helps Democrats I guess but nothing major. Democrats brought this up.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1459206755934773253

It's done.

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1459265906325041154

The R commissioner for some reason wanted to reverse the numbering from the 80s?

They also reversed the amendment from last time due to not wanting to risk such a large population inequality along with the county commissioner testifying on what they wanted. Gives the GOP back a few hundred votes.

[GALeftist]

Bullock only lost MT-01 by a point. I think it is definitely winnable for Democrats downballot, though probably not in 2022. Likely R for 2022.

[Skill and Chance]

Bullock only lost MT-01 by a point. I think it is definitely winnable for Democrats downballot, though probably not in 2022. Likely R for 2022.

How was MT-01 in 2016 and 2012 at the presidential level?  It has a lot of ancestral D mining areas moving right but it also has Bozeman and Missoula which are the 2 largest counties by population and pretty clearly moving left.  Ancestral R Flathead is the 3rd largest and it has basically been stable since the Bush era.

[Torie]

Bullock only lost MT-01 by a point. I think it is definitely winnable for Democrats downballot, though probably not in 2022. Likely R for 2022.

How was MT-01 in 2016 and 2012 at the presidential level?  It has a lot of ancestral D mining areas moving right but it also has Bozeman and Missoula which are the 2 largest counties by population and pretty clearly moving left.  Ancestral R Flathead is the 3rd largest and it has basically been stable since the Bush era.

Trump 2016 won MT-01 by 12 points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/da5dab01-a99c-40bf-9fa0-17cd2d8a212e

[Skill and Chance]

Bullock only lost MT-01 by a point. I think it is definitely winnable for Democrats downballot, though probably not in 2022. Likely R for 2022.

How was MT-01 in 2016 and 2012 at the presidential level?  It has a lot of ancestral D mining areas moving right but it also has Bozeman and Missoula which are the 2 largest counties by population and pretty clearly moving left.  Ancestral R Flathead is the 3rd largest and it has basically been stable since the Bush era.

Trump 2016 won MT-01 by 12 points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/da5dab01-a99c-40bf-9fa0-17cd2d8a212e

Hmmm... so a pretty big Dem swing then, on par with what happened in GA statewide. Dems should seriously compete here, but it probably takes a 2026 or 2030 R president midterm to put them over the line.

[patzer]

Bullock only lost MT-01 by a point. I think it is definitely winnable for Democrats downballot, though probably not in 2022. Likely R for 2022.

How was MT-01 in 2016 and 2012 at the presidential level?  It has a lot of ancestral D mining areas moving right but it also has Bozeman and Missoula which are the 2 largest counties by population and pretty clearly moving left.  Ancestral R Flathead is the 3rd largest and it has basically been stable since the Bush era.

Trump 2016 won MT-01 by 12 points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/da5dab01-a99c-40bf-9fa0-17cd2d8a212e

Hmmm... so a pretty big Dem swing then, on par with what happened in GA statewide. Dems should seriously compete here, but it probably takes a 2026 or 2030 R president midterm to put them over the line.

I don’t think it requires a R midterm- Bullock only lost it by 1 in a presidential year after all.

Picking it up in 2022 may be a bit of a stretch, but 2024 should be pretty much a tossup imo.

[lfromnj]

Bullock only lost MT-01 by a point. I think it is definitely winnable for Democrats downballot, though probably not in 2022. Likely R for 2022.

How was MT-01 in 2016 and 2012 at the presidential level?  It has a lot of ancestral D mining areas moving right but it also has Bozeman and Missoula which are the 2 largest counties by population and pretty clearly moving left.  Ancestral R Flathead is the 3rd largest and it has basically been stable since the Bush era.

Trump 2016 won MT-01 by 12 points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/da5dab01-a99c-40bf-9fa0-17cd2d8a212e

Hmmm... so a pretty big Dem swing then, on par with what happened in GA statewide. Dems should seriously compete here, but it probably takes a 2026 or 2030 R president midterm to put them over the line.

It's back to where it was in 2012 FYI.

[Torie]

I am just so hurt that nobody congratulated me for decoding visually the split of Pondera County down to the very last census block, most of which have no people. And the more I play with other options for the map, the more I have to admire the Pubs for what they went for. It is very sophisticated. Actually, I agree that in the end this is the best possible map given the metrics I prefer, and obviously tie breaker Smith preferred. Normally the Pubs in these fights are the rubes and the dumbs, the Dems the cognescenti and the smarts, but not in MT. They assumed Smith was a Dem hack. They must have been shocked that she was not. I suspect the Pubs got very expensive legal advice as to how to play the game. The Dems assumed the game was already probably fixed, an AZ redux.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am just so hurt that nobody congratulated me for decoding visually the split of Pondera County down to the very last census block, most of which have no people. And the more I play with other options for the map, the more I have to admire the Pubs for what they went for. It is very sophisticated. Actually I agreed I in the end it is the best possible map given the metrics I prefer, and obviously tie breaker Smith preferred. Normally the Pubs in these fights are the rubes and the dumbs, the Dems the cognescenti and the smarts, but not in MT. They assumed Smith was a Dem hack. They must have been shocked that she was not. I suspect the Pubs got very expensive legal advice as to how to play the game. The Dems assumed the game was already probably fixed, an AZ redux.

Didn't I post something along the lines of congrulating you in advance in case you were right? IIRC.

[Torie]

I am just so hurt that nobody congratulated me for decoding visually the split of Pondera County down to the very last census block, most of which have no people. And the more I play with other options for the map, the more I have to admire the Pubs for what they went for. It is very sophisticated. Actually I agreed I in the end it is the best possible map given the metrics I prefer, and obviously tie breaker Smith preferred. Normally the Pubs in these fights are the rubes and the dumbs, the Dems the cognescenti and the smarts, but not in MT. They assumed Smith was a Dem hack. They must have been shocked that she was not. I suspect the Pubs got very expensive legal advice as to how to play the game. The Dems assumed the game was already probably fixed, an AZ redux.

Didn't I post something along the lines of congrulating you in advance in case you were right? IIRC.

No, this is decoding the 500 or so folks involved as to how the micro county was chopped via block by block chopping of a given mini precinct relatively speaking. This county was chopped btw, because 1) the Blackfoot reservation also chops it, and reservation lines trump county lines, 100% of the time, and 2) as a delightful bonus, it resulted in a county chop involving the fewest people of all the other options. Honest! It was a win-win.

The rest of my post was not about my stumbling into seeming inspired genius, albeit not about the actual map, but the mind of Smith. It was about the inspired genius of Smith.

Posters here tend to assume that those who take the oath to be non partisan, more often than not do not respect that, and go hack, and do so even  when one choice is very clearly superior to another but does not favor their team.  From that I strongly dissent. These folks are not all Mathis types. Most still have a conscience.

That is my opinion. Keep hope alive.

[politicallefty]

Hey, this was basically the map I was offering as a potential compromise a couple pages back, lol. It was just a precinct or a couple off (about as close as realistically possible). My post at the top of the page applies.

I think the path for a Democratic win in the district looks something like Bullock's narrow lost in the district in the Senate race: blowout margin in Missoula, keep Flathead within 25%, and get a double digit win in Gallatin. The task gets more difficult if the rurals keep trending away (Western rurals seem to be a bit different, so there could be stabilization there). It's also a bit of a problem if Democrats can't regain their strength in ancestrally Democratic Silver Bow County. Hillary had the worst raw vote total there since 1924. It only marginally swung toward Biden, but it trended the opposite direction.

[Skill and Chance]

Bullock only lost MT-01 by a point. I think it is definitely winnable for Democrats downballot, though probably not in 2022. Likely R for 2022.

How was MT-01 in 2016 and 2012 at the presidential level?  It has a lot of ancestral D mining areas moving right but it also has Bozeman and Missoula which are the 2 largest counties by population and pretty clearly moving left.  Ancestral R Flathead is the 3rd largest and it has basically been stable since the Bush era.

Trump 2016 won MT-01 by 12 points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/da5dab01-a99c-40bf-9fa0-17cd2d8a212e

Hmmm... so a pretty big Dem swing then, on par with what happened in GA statewide. Dems should seriously compete here, but it probably takes a 2026 or 2030 R president midterm to put them over the line.

It's back to where it was in 2012 FYI.

Yes, but that shows there is still hope for the future.  This isn't a CO-03 situation where it was only close-ish because of fading ancestral strength.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bullock only lost MT-01 by a point. I think it is definitely winnable for Democrats downballot, though probably not in 2022. Likely R for 2022.

How was MT-01 in 2016 and 2012 at the presidential level?  It has a lot of ancestral D mining areas moving right but it also has Bozeman and Missoula which are the 2 largest counties by population and pretty clearly moving left.  Ancestral R Flathead is the 3rd largest and it has basically been stable since the Bush era.

Trump 2016 won MT-01 by 12 points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/da5dab01-a99c-40bf-9fa0-17cd2d8a212e

Hmmm... so a pretty big Dem swing then, on par with what happened in GA statewide. Dems should seriously compete here, but it probably takes a 2026 or 2030 R president midterm to put them over the line.

It's back to where it was in 2012 FYI.

Yes, but that shows there is still hope for the future.  This isn't a CO-03 situation where it was only close-ish because of fading ancestral strength.

Uh I'd argue CO-3 was close-ish because of ski-resort communities rather than ancestral strength. The big hope for Dems here is really that Missoula continues to grow and blueify, alongside Butte and Bozeman to an extent; rural MT isn't coming back.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bullock only lost MT-01 by a point. I think it is definitely winnable for Democrats downballot, though probably not in 2022. Likely R for 2022.

How was MT-01 in 2016 and 2012 at the presidential level?  It has a lot of ancestral D mining areas moving right but it also has Bozeman and Missoula which are the 2 largest counties by population and pretty clearly moving left.  Ancestral R Flathead is the 3rd largest and it has basically been stable since the Bush era.

Trump 2016 won MT-01 by 12 points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/da5dab01-a99c-40bf-9fa0-17cd2d8a212e

Hmmm... so a pretty big Dem swing then, on par with what happened in GA statewide. Dems should seriously compete here, but it probably takes a 2026 or 2030 R president midterm to put them over the line.

It's back to where it was in 2012 FYI.

Yes, but that shows there is still hope for the future.  This isn't a CO-03 situation where it was only close-ish because of fading ancestral strength.

Uh I'd argue CO-3 was close-ish because of ski-resort communities rather than ancestral strength. The big hope for Dems here is really that Missoula continues to grow and blueify, alongside Butte and Bozeman to an extent; rural MT isn't coming back.

With all due respect, there's a lot of ways the 2020s could unfold, for all we know rural MT might swing back (the exact degree to which it will in that scenario is in itself as uncertain). Nobody knows for certain, and anyone who claims otherwise is either deluded or lying.

[Heir of Camelot]

Sadly I think this is Zinke's seat for as long as he wants it.

The Dems are running an incredibly weak slate of candidates for the nomination so far. The MDP seems to be in disarray with a new leader every year. It's a complete about face from a few years ago when they controlled the Governor's Mansion for 16 years and both the Senate seats.

One of the issues is all the Covid refugees piling in from Texas and Florida and other QAnon nuts from blue states. A few harsh winters will send them scurrying back though.