MT Congressional Redistricting

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Western Montana is not trending rightwards. Hillary was just a horrible fit here and all the Berniecrats sat out the general (the disdain for Hillary was palpable and Bernie dominated the primary). Let's see the Biden numbers before we call anything a trend. I bet Biden wins it.

Bozeman is shifting leftwards quickly, as is Whitefish. Missoula is basically Portland and it will dominate the Western half the way Billings will dominate the East.

Furthermore, Butte is solidly D, as is Dear Lodge and West Yellowstone and Livingston (depending on how they draw it). Columbia Falls is drifting that way (It has chosen Democrat Zac Perry the last 2 cycles). Whitefish went 70% D for Dave Fern in the last election. Quist even won Kalispell and made it interesting in Hamilton (the two red Hamlets). Shrill Neo Liberals could still lose it of course but guys like Tester, Bullock, Quist will win it all day.

"mIsSoUlA iS bAsIcAlLy pOrTlAnD"

Missoula: Obama +17.8, Clinton +15.4, less than 65,000 total votes, 90% non-Hispanic white, median family income $45,000

Portland: Obama +54.7, Clinton +56.3, 400,000 voting residents, 66% non-Hispanic white, median income $63,000 (none of this includes suburbs either lol, which just add to the disparity)

While I get the compulsion to hope that your state is flipping to your party, hear me out from a Californian Republican (Ex) to a Montana Democrat: sometimes it just ain't so.

Also, before you pull the Berniecrats thing: looking at just one of your "rapidly left" examples, Whitefish, here are the voting stats:

2016   
R: 63.7% 30,240
D: 28.0% 13,293
I: 8.3% 3,963
2012   
R: 64.5% 28,309   
D: 31.6% 13,892
I: 3.9% 1,708

The Democratic number of votes remained relatively static (ie, no evidence of some kind of mass berniecrat defection even in one of Montana's bigger cities like this), but it was the Republican vote total that actually increased. Pretty much every single one of your propositions here is simply pure conjecture -- that kind of analysis is not worthy of this forum, and you should do more data delving before you make such further statements that simply do not have factual backing.

It is perfectly fine to take a reasonable stance of "MT is trending rightwards, but based on the national environment/the stages of where it's trends are currently at, Steve Bullock has a real chance to win this year."

What is not okay is to offer inane ramblings about how MT is only trending rightwards on the data because of shrill neoliberals, and then offer baseless assertions about MT, one of Bernie's actually worst states for the upper west, is secretly trending leftwards because of missing Berniecrat turnout (as if the state of Max Baucus and Jon Tester is some kind of socialist hub?).

It's as simple as that.

[Heir of Camelot]

Look at the Whitefish '18 numbers though. A lot of the new residents have arrived since 2016. For example Dave Fern (D) from HD 5, which is all of Whitefish.

2016
Dave Fern 56.7%
Opponent  43.2%
D+13

2018
Dave Fern 69.1%
Opponent 30.9%
D+38

So that's a 25 point swing in 2 years. They are building houses in Whitefish like crazy and the majority of residents moving in are hipsters from Washington and Colorado etc. and they bring their progressive voting patterns with them.

Tester won Senate District 3 (Whitefish and N. Kalispell) in 2018 by 4 points whereas incumbent Keith Regier won it by 13 points in '16. That's a 17 point swing in 2 years.

[Heir of Camelot]

Obama may have won Missoula by 18 points but Statewide candidates like Rob Quist for example, regularly win it by over 30 points and Gallatin Co. by 14 points. That's where most of the people in W. MT live.

Quist also won Silver Bow county (Butte) by over 30 points and Deer Lodge County by 35 points. He won Glacier county, where his hometown Cutbank is as well as the Blackfeet reservation in neighboring Browning by 40 points. That's a lot of Blue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Question, wouldn't the fast pace of the growth in Western MT be enough to make 2018 population estimates not perfect for purpose of 2020 maps?

[Heir of Camelot]

Yes, and 2016 numbers are completely useless. Western MT population is exploding. Especially after Covid. The Realtors in Gallatin and Flathead counties are slammed right now (myself included).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Look at the Whitefish '18 numbers though. A lot of the new residents have arrived since 2016. For example Dave Fern (D) from HD 5, which is all of Whitefish.

2016
Dave Fern 56.7%
Opponent  43.2%
D+13

2018
Dave Fern 69.1%
Opponent 30.9%
D+38

So that's a 25 point swing in 2 years. They are building houses in Whitefish like crazy and the majority of residents moving in are hipsters from Washington and Colorado etc. and they bring their progressive voting patterns with them.

Tester won Senate District 3 (Whitefish and N. Kalispell) in 2018 by 4 points whereas incumbent Keith Regier won it by 13 points in '16. That's a 17 point swing in 2 years.

And IL-10 voted red in 2010.

[Badger]

Why would California lose a district and Montana gain one?

Because it was on the border for the 53rd seat and its growth rate this decade has been slightly slower than the US as a whole which matters a lot when it comes to 53 seats.

And California, being one of the largest states in the nation, has a disproportionate effect on that growth. The larger you are, the harder a state has to work to hold onto it's seats. There is a reason why reapportionment last century saw the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic drop tons of seats each decade.

I have a .02 difference in favor of Montana right now but it's pretty stupid that more people in California lose representation than people in Montana gain.

Montana voters are the best though, can you imagine those Trump-Gianforte-Tester voters determining control of the US senate in 2020?

No, I'd rather imagine DC getting actual representation. Montana does not deserve two congressional districts for their tiny, homogenous population. What a farce.

Actually they do, but the best route to that is to increase the size of Congress to wear we base the population of a district to be approximately equivalent to Wyoming.

[Badger]

Look at the Whitefish '18 numbers though. A lot of the new residents have arrived since 2016. For example Dave Fern (D) from HD 5, which is all of Whitefish.

2016
Dave Fern 56.7%
Opponent  43.2%
D+13

2018
Dave Fern 69.1%
Opponent 30.9%
D+38

So that's a 25 point swing in 2 years. They are building houses in Whitefish like crazy and the majority of residents moving in are hipsters from Washington and Colorado etc. and they bring their progressive voting patterns with them.

Tester won Senate District 3 (Whitefish and N. Kalispell) in 2018 by 4 points whereas incumbent Keith Regier won it by 13 points in '16. That's a 17 point swing in 2 years.

Interesting indeed. Do you have any insight on Ravalli County, which appears to be second only to Flathead as being the major Republican vote sink in Western Montana?

[Heir of Camelot]

I worked on the Quist campaign and actually knocked doors in Ravalli, Hamilton to be precise.

I found a surprisingly good reception there. I even knocked a Republican door who said he was voting for a Dem for the first time in his life that election. The results bore that out. I think it is getting slightly less red than in the past. Gianforte still won in by 25 points or so though so it's not flipping any time soon obviously.

[😥]

I think it is the best case scenario for Dems:

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I think it is the best case scenario for Dems:

That is not even remotely going to happen.

[😥]

I think it is the best case scenario for Dems:

I did not say that I thought it would happen. I said it is a best-case scenario for Democrats.
That is not even remotely going to happen.

[Heir of Camelot]

That map would be my dream scenario. I will be so annoyed if Flathead County ends up with Billings in the Eastern District.

Supposedly they are having a really hard time getting the Natives to fill out the census so this whole discussion could end up being moot.

[Idaho Conservative]

Nice clean split.  Western district is Trump+17 Tester+7.  Lean R in a neutral year. 
Eastern district is Trump+25 and Tester won it by under 1,000 votes.  Safe R except likely R in a D wave election.

[TML]

Now that Republicans swept statewide races this year in MT, does anyone think they will move to change redistricting rules to enable them to make both districts strongly R-leaning in the event that the state regains its second congressional seat?

[Skill and Chance]

Now that Republicans swept statewide races this year in MT, does anyone think they will move to change redistricting rules to enable them to make both districts strongly R-leaning in the event that the state regains its second congressional seat?

The commission process is in the state constitution.  They would need a 2/3rds majority, which they won't have, to even put an amendment on the ballot.

[Skill and Chance]

In practice, the commission means an East/West split is basically assured.  The Western CD will always have some Dem upset potential. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Now that Republicans swept statewide races this year in MT, does anyone think they will move to change redistricting rules to enable them to make both districts strongly R-leaning in the event that the state regains its second congressional seat?

The commission process is in the state constitution.  They would need a 2/3rds majority, which they won't have, to even put an amendment on the ballot.

Yeah, that seems impossible.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

How does this map look?

[Roll Roons]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/93ef9a79-f68e-4edc-8292-e0c057e6c045

So now that Montana's officially regaining a second seat, I gave it a go with an East-West map.

The eastern district (MT-02) is very much safe R. The only spots where Democrats are remotely competitive are downtown Billings and some reservation areas.

But the western district (MT-01) is interesting. Trump only won it by around 8 points against Hillary, while Tester in 2018 and Bullock in 2016 both carried it by double digits. I doubt Biden won it, but it was likely within 5 points. I think this would be a true swing district, although there are some very favorable trends for Democrats in Missoula and Bozeman.

[Canis]

I made a 2 cd map a few months ago I had to change 2 precint with the new 2020 data
https://davesredistricting.org/join/331f7adf-2d09-4ce0-9489-486619af6130
Trump won both districts in 2016 the first district by 16 points
Bullock won CD 1 by 8 and Lost CD 2 by 0.5%
Tester won CD 1 by 7 and CD 2 by 0.06%

[Skill and Chance]

The new tiebreaker independent on the 5 member redistricting commission (2R/2D/1I) is a very culturally left law professor who is on the board of the Montana Innocence Project.  In all likelihood this is going to be the Arizona 2011 of the 2021 cycle.

Let's see how Dem the Western MT seat can be made while staying within the commission's official rules.  Is a Biden seat possible?

 

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The new tiebreaker independent on the 5 member redistricting commission (2R/2D/1I) is a very culturally left law professor who is on the board of the Montana Innocence Project.  In all likelihood this is going to be the Arizona 2011 of the 2021 cycle.

Let's see how Dem the Western MT seat can be made while staying within the commission's official rules.  Is a Biden seat possible?

 

Not Without an obvious Gerrymander but a Trump +4 district with landslide wins for state-level democrats is possible.

[Stuart98]

This is about the prettiest 2 district Montana you can get, though it splits four counties (one of which is just to keep Blackfeet Reservation whole).



CD1 is Trump +8.6 in 2016 president, Bullock +12.7 in 2016 governor, and Tester +13.4 in 2018 senate.

[OBD]

Is road connectivity required? If it is then I think a technical Dem commission majority would have to choose between putting Glacier County or Bozeman in the western seat without cutting into Helena...