COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1249007008264663042

America first?

Okay, Hillary.

Population size....what a stupid comparison.

We would've had a 110% more competent response with Hillary & you know it.

I don't know man. I mean she had a private e-mail server.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1249007008264663042

America first?

Okay, Hillary.

Population size....what a stupid comparison.

We would've had a 110% more competent response with Hillary & you know it.

I don't know man. I mean she had a private e-mail server.

Ah sh*t, you're right :/

[Virginiá]

The issue with President Clinton handling this crisis is that she would likely handle the actual pandemic much better, but the economic aid would be extremely lacking, as Republicans would likely hold both chambers of Congress and would give her some variation of the Obama treatment - No to basically everything, and extreme austerity is the only solution. If they wouldn't agree to Obama's relatively modest 800 billion dollar stimulus, why would they agree to something several times that from Clinton? And in an election year? Dear lord, we'd be so screwed it's not even funny.

On a side note, everyone who actually cares about the economic recovery should be thinking ahead to what happens if Biden wins the presidency, but perhaps fails to carry a Democratic senate majority with him (or perhaps a very slim one). Republicans are going to go from generous stimulus mode to severe austerity mode again, since they no longer control the White House and want to win more elections in the future by crippling the economy and blaming it on Democrats.

[Bojack Horseman]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

[Grassroots]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

That's a lie on your part, hospitals aren't being overwhelmed in Michigan. Nice try.

I'm not even going to talk about that "millions of people dying" bit because doing so would result in me losing brain cells.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1249007008264663042

America first?

Okay, Hillary.

Population size....what a stupid comparison.

We would've had a 110% more competent response with Hillary & you know it.

I mean, I only wonder how many states would have already seceded if thrice-impeached President Hillary Clinton’s CDC has told the red state yokels not to go to church on Easter. 

[It’s so Joever]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

That's a lie on your part, hospitals aren't being overwhelmed in Michigan. Nice try.

I'm not even going to talk about that "millions of people dying" bit because doing so would result in me losing brain cells.

The millions of people dying in Michigan was an obvious hyperbole, but hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/running-out-of-body-bags-people-dying-in-the-hallway-coronavirus-has-michigan-hospital-workers-at-a-breaking-point.html%3foutputType=amp

Granted, the distribution of the virus isn’t even in Michigan so some parts may be perfectly fine, but plenty of hospitals are struggling.
I usually like your posts, but this one is completely off.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1249007008264663042

America first?

Okay, Hillary.

Population size....what a stupid comparison.

We would've had a 110% more competent response with Hillary & you know it.

I mean, I only wonder how many states would have already seceded if thrice-impeached President Hillary Clinton’s CDC has told the red state yokels not to go to church on Easter. 

This is a good point.  Many mistakes have been made, but Trump is undoubtedly a better messenger to red state governors (where the formal shutdown power lies) that Clinton and blue states were culturally more likely to support aggressive economic action regardless of what the federal government recommended.  Under a President Clinton, there would be ~15 governors denouncing the federal "conspiracy" and calling for Sweden-style business as usual in their states right now.

If Clinton tried to take matters into her own hands, an inevitable 5/4 or 6/3 (depending on what happened in the Senate in 2017-18) SCOTUS ruling on a national guard enforced federal lockdown would probably lead to Bleeding Kansas 2.0.     

[Grassroots]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

That's a lie on your part, hospitals aren't being overwhelmed in Michigan. Nice try.

I'm not even going to talk about that "millions of people dying" bit because doing so would result in me losing brain cells.

The millions of people dying in Michigan was an obvious hyperbole, but hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/running-out-of-body-bags-people-dying-in-the-hallway-coronavirus-has-michigan-hospital-workers-at-a-breaking-point.html%3foutputType=amp

Granted, the distribution of the virus isn’t even in Michigan so some parts may be perfectly fine, but plenty of hospitals are struggling.
I usually like your posts, but this one is completely off.

I hesitate to believe an obviously over-exaggerated article over the hard data.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1249007008264663042

America first?

Okay, Hillary.

Population size....what a stupid comparison.

We would've had a 110% more competent response with Hillary & you know it.

I mean, I only wonder how many states would have already seceded if thrice-impeached President Hillary Clinton’s CDC has told the red state yokels not to go to church on Easter. 

This is a good point.  Many mistakes have been made, but Trump is undoubtedly a better messenger to red state governors (where the formal shutdown power lies) that Clinton and blue states were culturally more likely to support aggressive economic action regardless of what the federal government recommended.  Under a President Clinton, there would be ~15 governors denouncing the federal "conspiracy" and calling for Sweden-style business as usual in their states right now.

If Clinton tried to take matters into her own hands, an inevitable 5/4 or 6/3 (depending on what happened in the Senate in 2017-18) SCOTUS ruling on a national guard enforced federal lockdown would probably lead to Bleeding Kansas 2.0.     

If there is a crisis, you have to have a Republican in WH. Democrats have been making this case for years, I've been told.

[It’s so Joever]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

That's a lie on your part, hospitals aren't being overwhelmed in Michigan. Nice try.

I'm not even going to talk about that "millions of people dying" bit because doing so would result in me losing brain cells.

The millions of people dying in Michigan was an obvious hyperbole, but hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/running-out-of-body-bags-people-dying-in-the-hallway-coronavirus-has-michigan-hospital-workers-at-a-breaking-point.html%3foutputType=amp

Granted, the distribution of the virus isn’t even in Michigan so some parts may be perfectly fine, but plenty of hospitals are struggling.
I usually like your posts, but this one is completely off.

I hesitate to believe an obviously over-exaggerated article over the hard data.

...You do understand those are projections, right?
They aren’t actually reflective of the situation.
I can’t speak for Michigan with certainty, but in Colorado, IHME has actually underestimated deaths and hospital beds needed for the past few days.


More importantly, Michigan is a large State and the virus cases aren’t evenly distributed, even when taking population into account. Some parts of Michigan probably have ample room, but I bet much of Detroit is overwhelmed. It still balances out.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

That's a lie on your part, hospitals aren't being overwhelmed in Michigan. Nice try.

I'm not even going to talk about that "millions of people dying" bit because doing so would result in me losing brain cells.

The millions of people dying in Michigan was an obvious hyperbole, but hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/running-out-of-body-bags-people-dying-in-the-hallway-coronavirus-has-michigan-hospital-workers-at-a-breaking-point.html%3foutputType=amp

Granted, the distribution of the virus isn’t even in Michigan so some parts may be perfectly fine, but plenty of hospitals are struggling.
I usually like your posts, but this one is completely off.

I hesitate to believe an obviously over-exaggerated article over the hard data.

Do you know what "data" means?

@ Idiots who think we can't reopen the Summer

Keep putting your foot in your mouth, you'll eventually learn to like the taste.

Data is data.

You're not looking at data, you're looking at a model output. It literally says "projected". That's not data.

I find it insulting that people who don't know the difference between a credible interval and a confidence interval are trying to appeal to one model result as if they were experts, or as if they could even understand what the model is doing.

[Del Tachi]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

That's a lie on your part, hospitals aren't being overwhelmed in Michigan. Nice try.

I'm not even going to talk about that "millions of people dying" bit because doing so would result in me losing brain cells.

The millions of people dying in Michigan was an obvious hyperbole, but hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/running-out-of-body-bags-people-dying-in-the-hallway-coronavirus-has-michigan-hospital-workers-at-a-breaking-point.html%3foutputType=amp

Granted, the distribution of the virus isn’t even in Michigan so some parts may be perfectly fine, but plenty of hospitals are struggling.
I usually like your posts, but this one is completely off.

I hesitate to believe an obviously over-exaggerated article over the hard data.

Do you know what "data" means?

@ Idiots who think we can't reopen the Summer

Keep putting your foot in your mouth, you'll eventually learn to like the taste.

Data is data.

You're not looking at data, you're looking at a model output. It literally says "projected". That's not data.

I find it insulting that people who don't know the difference between a credible interval and a confidence interval are trying to appeal to one model result as if they were experts, or as if they could even understand what the model is doing.

Talking about the performance of the various models is relevant, if these projections were used in calibrating the public policy response - like they were

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

That's a lie on your part, hospitals aren't being overwhelmed in Michigan. Nice try.

I'm not even going to talk about that "millions of people dying" bit because doing so would result in me losing brain cells.

The millions of people dying in Michigan was an obvious hyperbole, but hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/running-out-of-body-bags-people-dying-in-the-hallway-coronavirus-has-michigan-hospital-workers-at-a-breaking-point.html%3foutputType=amp

Granted, the distribution of the virus isn’t even in Michigan so some parts may be perfectly fine, but plenty of hospitals are struggling.
I usually like your posts, but this one is completely off.

I hesitate to believe an obviously over-exaggerated article over the hard data.

Do you know what "data" means?

@ Idiots who think we can't reopen the Summer

Keep putting your foot in your mouth, you'll eventually learn to like the taste.

Data is data.

You're not looking at data, you're looking at a model output. It literally says "projected". That's not data.

I find it insulting that people who don't know the difference between a credible interval and a confidence interval are trying to appeal to one model result as if they were experts, or as if they could even understand what the model is doing.

Talking about the performance of the various models is relevant, if these projections were used in calibrating the public policy response - like they were

That's not what he's doing. He doesn't know what the difference between data and a model prediction is. His opinion here is entirely irrelevant because he's trying to defend his points with oranges that he thinks are apples.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/slpng_giants/status/1248671688709017601

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why is the administration so obsessed with hydrochloroquine when there are several other possible drugs out there that seem to have shown more promise with fewer side effects?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/slpng_giants/status/1248671688709017601

Can you imagine having access to the best experts in the U.S. & instead choosing to talk to a Fox News pundit?

[T'Chenka]

Why is the administration so obsessed with hydrochloroquine when there are several other possible drugs out there that seem to have shown more promise with fewer side effects?

Trump's family has skin in the game financially. Yes, he's sinking that low in times like these.

[Frodo]

Why is the administration so obsessed with hydrochloroquine when there are several other possible drugs out there that seem to have shown more promise with fewer side effects?

Does Trump have any personal financial stake in those other drugs?  

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1249004396278616065

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Why is the administration so obsessed with hydrochloroquine when there are several other possible drugs out there that seem to have shown more promise with fewer side effects?

Does Trump have any personal financial stake in those other drugs?  

Maybe the manufacturers of those other drugs could pay Michael CohenRudy Giuliani $1.2 million? 

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1249004396278616065

It makes sense we have had the worst response to the coronavirus in the world, since we have the misfortune of having a President who is among the worst we have ever had since the founding of our republic.  

[jimrtex]

OK,

Here are some predictive graphs from the 'Active Case' work I have been doing. I will add some realistic recoveries to UK and France tomorrow. So far, UK have only reported 340 recoveries which is clearly in error.

This dashboard for Texas appears to be estimating recoveries in a manner similar to yours. See footnote for Patients recovered.

Texas COVID-19

Thanks, i will take a look. Recoveries are easy. It's like balancing a chemical equation.

If someone enters the New Cases graph, logically, that translates into a fatality or recovery 10-14 days later. Assuming the fatalaties are correct, average recovery rates are very predictable.

The USA is due for a lot of recoveries over the next fortnight for example and i will start adding those in if they dont materialize.

Despite everyone criticizing China's reporting, their data made sense. Their new cases matched closely with their recoveries.

There was an interview with a doctor whose specialty was infection diseases. He was asked how he would respond if a patient believed they had COVID-19. If they were having respiratory distress, he would direct them to a hospital, and get a description of their vehicle. When they arrived at the hospital, personnel would come out and get them and bring them in through a segregated entrance where they could not only be tested for the virus, but other tests run.

But other patients would be directed to an out-patient testing facility where a swab would be taken, and told to isolate in personal quarantine (you don't quarantine with your family).  There may have been zero follow-up other than reporting the test results. This may be why recoveries are not reported.

Testing in the US varies widely by state.

13 states and the District of Columbia have tested more than 1% of the population (10,000 tests per million). The positive rate varies:

NY 41.2% (NY is the only state with more than 2% tested)
NJ 40.1%
LA 20.9%
MA 20.5%
DC 17.7%
DE 13.4%
RI 13.1%
WA 11.0%
VT 7.8%
UT 5.2%
NM 4.0%
AK 3.3%
HI 2.9%
ND 2.9%

At the top-end NY and NJ are basically confirming that symptomatic persons do have the virus. At the bottom end, they have been able to not only test anyone with symptoms, but likely done contact and community testing and test medical personnel and first responders.

Among states with below 0.5% tested, less than 5000 tests per million.

GA 25.7%
AL 14.6%
CA 12.8%
VA 12.7%
TX 10.5%
KS 10.2%
ME 8.8%
NE 6.8%

It is hard to interpret this. Clearly lots of people without symptoms have been tested. So there is the possibility that the other 99.5% of the population that has not been tested will have similar results.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1249007008264663042

America first?

Okay, Hillary.

Population size....what a stupid comparison.

20,000 deaths should not be watered down because we have a large country.

[Roll Roons]

Why is the administration so obsessed with hydrochloroquine when there are several other possible drugs out there that seem to have shown more promise with fewer side effects?

It's been in use for a long time, can be easily produced on a mass scale, and there are multiple anecdotal reports of its effectiveness. Plus it was probably the first one he heard about.