COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Hollywood]

If I were the president, I would do this:

This pandemic acts like a ripple effect in the US. The first states are the quickest to lose the ripple, we can end the lockdowns in those states once they lose their case rates (i'm thinking about Washington and Illinois in particular, New York comes to mind but the huge scope of the impact leads me to think it might need a little more time). The ripple spreads to the later states (TX,GA,FL, other rurals) which haven't peaked yet and are still growing exponentially, we will hold the stay at home order on them.

New York comes to your mind?  That’s funny.  Letting them out is perhaps the worst decision any President could make at this time, aside from crop dusting every city and town with particles containing the virus.  They are literally responsible for New Jersey.  I wouldn’t consider opening NYC, or its surrounding areas, until at least middle May given that they still add 10K cases each day on top of 150K active ones.  I’m fine with Washington, and rural/burbs of Illinois can also be let out, but not Chicago or its surrounding areas. 

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

They are going to need to do another direct deposit stimulus check to individuals for May’s rent.

Why isn’t anyone in Congress talking about this with urgency?

[T'Chenka]

They are going to need to do another direct deposit stimulus check to individuals for May’s rent.

Why isn’t anyone in Congress talking about this with urgency?

Their corporate puppet master donors have not alllowed it yet.

[jimrtex]

OK,

Here are some predictive graphs from the 'Active Case' work I have been doing. I will add some realistic recoveries to UK and France tomorrow. So far, UK have only reported 340 recoveries which is clearly in error.

This dashboard for Texas appears to be estimating recoveries in a manner similar to yours. See footnote for Patients recovered.

Texas COVID-19

[Hollywood]

They are going to need to do another direct deposit stimulus check to individuals for May’s rent.

Why isn’t anyone in Congress talking about this with urgency?

They don't even want to go to Washington, because they might be put on the spot to vote for something meaningful.  Would it even help if they came back?  The Republicans just want business to start rolling again, and the Democrats are just worried about their next commission to investigate the President's handling of the coronavirus so they can put on another show.  I'm fine with just Trump and Cuomo handling it. 

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Here are some predictive graphs from the 'Active Case' work I have been doing. I will add some realistic recoveries to UK and France tomorrow. So far, UK have only reported 340 recoveries which is clearly in error.

This dashboard for Texas appears to be estimating recoveries in a manner similar to yours. See footnote for Patients recovered.

Texas COVID-19

Thanks, i will take a look. Recoveries are easy. It's like balancing a chemical equation.

If someone enters the New Cases graph, logically, that translates into a fatality or recovery 10-14 days later. Assuming the fatalaties are correct, average recovery rates are very predictable.

The USA is due for a lot of recoveries over the next fortnight for example and i will start adding those in if they dont materialize.

Despite everyone criticizing China's reporting, their data made sense. Their new cases matched closely with their recoveries.

[DINGO Joe]

Here's a good article on the test, trace and isolate efforts that will have to be put together before the US can reopen and the various efforts being taken to put together programs by states thus far

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/10/contact-tracing-coronavirus-strategy/

Of course, we need a ton of tests, and  we need an army of tracers and we need to maintain the isolaters.

[vitoNova]

Dayum.

Just got my TrumpBux last night.   $1200 worth of Playstation games, here we go!

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1248783331459768323

[Sbane]

All over the country, there are portions of stores that people are prohibited from buying from. In Michigan, by Gov Whitmer's executive order, this includes home improvement and gardening.

https://twitter.com/joesichspach/status/1248653376931258370?s=20

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/what-michigans-new-coronavirus-stay-home-executive-order-means

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s latest stay-home order to battle the coronavirus pandemic allows home improvement stores to stay open, but only to sell “products necessary to maintain the safety, sanitation and basic operations of residences.”

The new regulations required Home Depot to close its paint section, flooring section and outdoor gardening center by Friday morning.

Tillery, a Lansing resident who already lost his job as a floor layer, has been “trying to make ends meet” during the pandemic by picking up side jobs as a handyman, providing what he said are emergency repairs in a time of crisis.

Paint was supposed to be one of the last steps in his current project: fixing a home after a tree crashed through the roof, damaging the ceiling and causing water damage.

Now, he’s not sure he can finish the job, so he planned to snap a photo of the closed paint section to show his client as proof.

Not sure how I feel about this. Outdoor gardening is a way for people to keep themselves in good mental health while having to stay home for such a long period of time.

[Sbane]

If the number of fatalities in people below 25 is that low, then from a policy perspective its functionally 0.

Not if you're a governor deciding whether to re-open your state's schools...

Only in a small, small state. 5 is a very tiny number compared to how many people attend the school system.

And when people are howling for DeSantis's head because children (doesn't matter how many) are dying, do you recommend he tell the grieving families that it was "functionally zero from a policy perspective"? To say nothing of all the people over 25 who are needed to teach the children...

If I were DeSantis, I would choose a policy not rooted in paranoia and then explain it as tactfully as possible.
I would also not punish truancy in these circumstances either.
But in general this disease kills very few young people, so treating schools as some death ground where huge numbers of kids will die from corona is going into Chicken Little territory. Comparitively very few young people with no at-risk factors are actually at risk of dying from this thing.
Remote teaching might still be advisable in a wide range of cases, but not because of the risk of children dying, which is statistically insignificant (younger people with stuff like asthma is an entirely different story). It should be done to help teachers.

The main reason to keep kids out of school and away from each other is to stop the spread of covid-19. Opening schools back up in May would be a huge mistake, even if we do open up most of the economy. We need to be prepared in September when we eventually start up school again.

[Bismarck]

Two things that should come out of the Corona-virus pandemic:

Bill Gates to manage the International Effort of researching and planning for pandemic diseases.

Google to run all the US Government online databases.

Satire?

[Skill and Chance]

All over the country, there are portions of stores that people are prohibited from buying from. In Michigan, by Gov Whitmer's executive order, this includes home improvement and gardening.

https://twitter.com/joesichspach/status/1248653376931258370?s=20

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/what-michigans-new-coronavirus-stay-home-executive-order-means

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s latest stay-home order to battle the coronavirus pandemic allows home improvement stores to stay open, but only to sell “products necessary to maintain the safety, sanitation and basic operations of residences.”

The new regulations required Home Depot to close its paint section, flooring section and outdoor gardening center by Friday morning.

Tillery, a Lansing resident who already lost his job as a floor layer, has been “trying to make ends meet” during the pandemic by picking up side jobs as a handyman, providing what he said are emergency repairs in a time of crisis.

Paint was supposed to be one of the last steps in his current project: fixing a home after a tree crashed through the roof, damaging the ceiling and causing water damage.

Now, he’s not sure he can finish the job, so he planned to snap a photo of the closed paint section to show his client as proof.

Not sure how I feel about this. Outdoor gardening is a way for people to keep themselves in good mental health while having to stay home for such a long period of time.

I do question the severity of the restrictions on outdoor activities in some states.  Particularly as it gets hot, people will need to be able to go outside or there will be a spike in deaths from heat stroke.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Still terrible #s from NY. But in a week #s will likely to go down.





Cuomo said that Trump have to repeal SALT to help his donors average middle-class Americans!

[Mr. Reactionary]

All over the country, there are portions of stores that people are prohibited from buying from. In Michigan, by Gov Whitmer's executive order, this includes home improvement and gardening.

https://twitter.com/joesichspach/status/1248653376931258370?s=20

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/what-michigans-new-coronavirus-stay-home-executive-order-means

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s latest stay-home order to battle the coronavirus pandemic allows home improvement stores to stay open, but only to sell “products necessary to maintain the safety, sanitation and basic operations of residences.”

The new regulations required Home Depot to close its paint section, flooring section and outdoor gardening center by Friday morning.

Tillery, a Lansing resident who already lost his job as a floor layer, has been “trying to make ends meet” during the pandemic by picking up side jobs as a handyman, providing what he said are emergency repairs in a time of crisis.

Paint was supposed to be one of the last steps in his current project: fixing a home after a tree crashed through the roof, damaging the ceiling and causing water damage.

Now, he’s not sure he can finish the job, so he planned to snap a photo of the closed paint section to show his client as proof.

Not sure how I feel about this. Outdoor gardening is a way for people to keep themselves in good mental health while having to stay home for such a long period of time.

I do question the severity of the restrictions on outdoor activities in some states.  Particularly as it gets hot, people will need to be able to go outside or there will be a spike in deaths from heat stroke.

Gardening keeps people at home. My locality is delivering 500 home gardening kits directly to houses this month for citizens who register online. We were supposed to distribute them at a community event this month so we already have them built and onhand.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1249005265640476672

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1249007008264663042

[Del Tachi]

All over the country, there are portions of stores that people are prohibited from buying from. In Michigan, by Gov Whitmer's executive order, this includes home improvement and gardening.

https://twitter.com/joesichspach/status/1248653376931258370?s=20

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/what-michigans-new-coronavirus-stay-home-executive-order-means

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s latest stay-home order to battle the coronavirus pandemic allows home improvement stores to stay open, but only to sell “products necessary to maintain the safety, sanitation and basic operations of residences.”

The new regulations required Home Depot to close its paint section, flooring section and outdoor gardening center by Friday morning.

Tillery, a Lansing resident who already lost his job as a floor layer, has been “trying to make ends meet” during the pandemic by picking up side jobs as a handyman, providing what he said are emergency repairs in a time of crisis.

Paint was supposed to be one of the last steps in his current project: fixing a home after a tree crashed through the roof, damaging the ceiling and causing water damage.

Now, he’s not sure he can finish the job, so he planned to snap a photo of the closed paint section to show his client as proof.

Not sure how I feel about this. Outdoor gardening is a way for people to keep themselves in good mental health while having to stay home for such a long period of time.

Agree.  There needs to be a shift in public policy from “essential” vs “non-essential” to safe vs unsafe.  Department stores and other retail businesses can be operated safely as long as people are maintaining social distance and wearing masks.  Restaurants, gyms and health clubs are probably still too unsafe to operate normally though.  

[vitoNova]

The best thing to come out of this Era of Rona is coronavirus hip-hop.

Yes.  It's a thing.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Reported new cases and death in Italy today are the highest in a week.  There’s still no evidence of continued decline. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why does everyone keep saying New York (the state with the most testing per capita) is testing at the same rate as South Korea? Worldometers shows it's not even close.

[FrancoAgo]

Reported new cases and death in Italy today are the highest in a week.  There’s still no evidence of continued decline. 

as i can see too people around,
in my town there are rumors that many people go to visit friends, here luckily atm there is not a expansion of infection but probably in area more heavier hit these behaviors help the spread of virus

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1249007008264663042

America first?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1249007008264663042

America first?

Okay, Hillary.

Population size....what a stupid comparison.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1249007008264663042

America first?

Okay, Hillary.

Population size....what a stupid comparison.

We would've had a 110% more competent response with Hillary & you know it.