Which Southern states could trend D in the next 10-20 years?

[Roll Roons]

Didn't include Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas or Virginia for obvious reasons.

[OSR stands with Israel]

MS will be Dem by 2032 and the state is too small for the GOP to put In the efforts for them to adapt to save it

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

MS will be Dem by 2032 and the state is too small for the GOP to put In the efforts for them to adapt to save it

Blacks in MS have a higher birth rate than whites. There is also a age gap among older and younger whites in MS as well. Younger whites in MS are not voting Republican enough to offset the black vote. Mike Espy only lost by 8 points in a supposed safe state in 2018.

[Lechasseur]

Mississippi

After Mississippi, I think second spot would be South Carolina.

The irony is, the two states that were the most Democratic in the whole South 20 years ago, WV and AR, are now the safest Republican states in the whole South, if not the whole country.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Mississippi

After Mississippi, I think second spot would be South Carolina.

The irony is, the two states that were the most Democratic in the whole South 20 years ago, WV and AR, are now the safest Republican states in the whole South, if not the whole country.

I would say WY and OK are the two most safest Republican states in the country. I would say Idaho and South Dakora are more safe as well. In the south you could argue TN is the safest state

[brucejoel99]

Mississippi.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SC, it's a Carolina,  that's why Harrison is polling better than Cunningham in the Senate race

[Skill and Chance]

Pretty much all of the states on this list will, except for WV and probably but not certainly KY.  However, I doubt it will be enough to make any of them competitive in federal elections under normal circumstances.  Dem Gov upsets may become increasingly common, as we saw in LA and KY, and the local GOP will no longer be able to run with the certainty that any candidate they put up will win, as we saw in the AL-SEN special.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

South Carolina is trending Dem, but Harrison probably loses to Graham.

[Suburbia]

Mississippi.

Espy can win MS-SEN this year.

Jim Hood should have won last year, he made a lot of errors.

[MT Treasurer]

Pretty much all of the states on this list will, except for WV and probably but not certainly KY.  However, I doubt it will be enough to make any of them competitive in federal elections under normal circumstances.  Dem Gov upsets may become increasingly common, as we saw in LA and KY, and the local GOP will no longer be able to run with the certainty that any candidate they put up will win, as we saw in the AL-SEN special.

Arkansas?

[woodystick]

The only one I think the dems would ever have a chance at in the near future is South Carolina.

[morgankingsley]

South Carolina and Mississippi may flip soon, then Alabama, Louisiana, then Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and then West Virginia

[Skill and Chance]

Pretty much all of the states on this list will, except for WV and probably but not certainly KY.  However, I doubt it will be enough to make any of them competitive in federal elections under normal circumstances.  Dem Gov upsets may become increasingly common, as we saw in LA and KY, and the local GOP will no longer be able to run with the certainty that any candidate they put up will win, as we saw in the AL-SEN special.

Arkansas?

I should have added it to the up in the air list with KY.  I think AR-02 and AR-03 will move left while AR-01 and AR-04 move right.  Either way it won't be interesting anytime soon.

[voice_of_resistance]

I'd say that Democrats have 4 tiers of winning:

Tier 1: Currently winnable, or maybe in 5-10 years
Virginia is already Safe D
Texas
Georgia
Florida
North Carolina

Tier 2: Will become winnable if demographics trend properly in around 15-20 years
South Carolina (Greenville/Spartanburg slowly trending D)
Mississippi (becoming slightly blacker)

Tier 3: Too far off, but could become Tier 2 states in about 25 years
Alabama (Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile all have potential to become bigger metros)
Louisiana (NOLA, Shreveport, and Baton Rouge put together with enough D suburbs)
Oklahoma (Most rural areas are losing population and OKC/Tulsa are trending D)

Tier 4: Not in the foreseeable future, barring a realignment or Roy Moore scenario
West Virginia (no path here, already Dems are running on fumes)
Kentucky (too rural and white , and Louisville and Lexington aren't big enough on their own)
Arkansas (see Kentucky)
Tennessee (see Kentucky)

[Lechasseur]

I'd say that Democrats have 4 tiers of winning:

Tier 1: Currently winnable, or maybe in 5-10 years
Virginia is already Safe D
Texas
Georgia
Florida
North Carolina

Tier 2: Will become winnable if demographics trend properly in around 15-20 years
South Carolina (Greenville/Spartanburg slowly trending D)
Mississippi (becoming slightly blacker)

Tier 3: Too far off, but could become Tier 2 states in about 25 years
Alabama (Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile all have potential to become bigger metros)
Louisiana (NOLA, Shreveport, and Baton Rouge put together with enough D suburbs)
Oklahoma (Most rural areas are losing population and OKC/Tulsa are trending D)

Tier 4: Not in the foreseeable future, barring a realignment or Roy Moore scenario
West Virginia (no path here, already Dems are running on fumes)
Kentucky (too rural and white , and Louisville and Lexington aren't big enough on their own)
Arkansas (see Kentucky)
Tennessee (see Kentucky)

Well Nashville and Memphis are bigger than any city in Alabama or whatever by far. Why do you think Alabama could go Dem at some point in the future but not Tennessee?

[CookieDamage]

I'd say that Democrats have 4 tiers of winning:

Tier 1: Currently winnable, or maybe in 5-10 years
Virginia is already Safe D
Texas
Georgia
Florida
North Carolina

Tier 2: Will become winnable if demographics trend properly in around 15-20 years
South Carolina (Greenville/Spartanburg slowly trending D)
Mississippi (becoming slightly blacker)

Tier 3: Too far off, but could become Tier 2 states in about 25 years
Alabama (Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile all have potential to become bigger metros)
Louisiana (NOLA, Shreveport, and Baton Rouge put together with enough D suburbs)
Oklahoma (Most rural areas are losing population and OKC/Tulsa are trending D)

Tier 4: Not in the foreseeable future, barring a realignment or Roy Moore scenario
West Virginia (no path here, already Dems are running on fumes)
Kentucky (too rural and white , and Louisville and Lexington aren't big enough on their own)
Arkansas (see Kentucky)
Tennessee (see Kentucky)

Well Nashville and Memphis are bigger than any city in Alabama or whatever by far. Why do you think Alabama could go Dem at some point in the future but not Tennessee?

Yeah the characterization of Tennessee is way off.

[TDAS04]

I'd say that Democrats have 4 tiers of winning:

Tier 1: Currently winnable, or maybe in 5-10 years
Virginia is already Safe D
Texas
Georgia
Florida
North Carolina

Tier 2: Will become winnable if demographics trend properly in around 15-20 years
South Carolina (Greenville/Spartanburg slowly trending D)
Mississippi (becoming slightly blacker)

Tier 3: Too far off, but could become Tier 2 states in about 25 years
Alabama (Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile all have potential to become bigger metros)
Louisiana (NOLA, Shreveport, and Baton Rouge put together with enough D suburbs)
Oklahoma (Most rural areas are losing population and OKC/Tulsa are trending D)

Tier 4: Not in the foreseeable future, barring a realignment or Roy Moore scenario
West Virginia (no path here, already Dems are running on fumes)
Kentucky (too rural and white , and Louisville and Lexington aren't big enough on their own)
Arkansas (see Kentucky)
Tennessee (see Kentucky)

Well Nashville and Memphis are bigger than any city in Alabama or whatever by far. Why do you think Alabama could go Dem at some point in the future but not Tennessee?

Yeah the characterization of Tennessee is way off.

Yes, and even Kentucky has greater prospects for trending left than Alabama (not that any of those states should be competitive remotely soon).

[iceman]

South Carolina is hard to predict, the fastest growing areas are the republican counties.

[iceman]

I'd say that Democrats have 4 tiers of winning:

Tier 1: Currently winnable, or maybe in 5-10 years
Virginia is already Safe D
Texas
Georgia
Florida
North Carolina

Tier 2: Will become winnable if demographics trend properly in around 15-20 years
South Carolina (Greenville/Spartanburg slowly trending D)
Mississippi (becoming slightly blacker)

Tier 3: Too far off, but could become Tier 2 states in about 25 years
Alabama (Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile all have potential to become bigger metros)
Louisiana (NOLA, Shreveport, and Baton Rouge put together with enough D suburbs)
Oklahoma (Most rural areas are losing population and OKC/Tulsa are trending D)

Tier 4: Not in the foreseeable future, barring a realignment or Roy Moore scenario
West Virginia (no path here, already Dems are running on fumes)
Kentucky (too rural and white , and Louisville and Lexington aren't big enough on their own)
Arkansas (see Kentucky)
Tennessee (see Kentucky)

people here seem to assume that if an urban area is growing it, it would make the state trend D. we cannot assure that the urban areas would still be solidly DEM by then in 25 years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SC, just like NC is trending Dem, I was right all along, Harrison can beat Graham, in the Senate races, due to being similar to Tim Scott

[Non Swing Voter]

This board has a weird obsession with Mississippi flipping D. 

I voted South Carolina.  Demographically it is a lot more similar to states that have already moved towards Democrats in the South.  I wasn't all that surprised that the Charleston district flipped in 2018. 

[brucejoel99]

This board has a weird obsession with Mississippi flipping D.

Perhaps because the trends indicate that it's a potential possibility?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MS will never flip, SC is a Carolina and will vote like NC soon

[QAnonKelly]

MS will be competitive within 15 years because there's no way they're going to be able to keep their numbers with white voters %-wise as Boomers die off.