Why did Obama do worse in the White South than other Blacks?

[Intell]

I presume the 2008 democratic primaries made these rural working class whites feel like they had lost control of the Democratic Party and so they voted for McCain.

TN Senate Election 2006
MS Senate Election 2006
TX Senate Election 2002

?

[Del Tachi]

He didn't (at least not in MS and TX)?

MS-SEN 2006:  34.9% DEM
MS-PRES 2008:  43.0% DEM

TX-SEN 2002:  43.3% DEM
TX-PRES 2008:  43.6% DEM

 

[Intell]

He didn't (at least not in MS and TX)?

MS-SEN 2006:  34.9% DEM
MS-PRES 2008:  43.0% DEM

TX-SEN 2002:  43.3% DEM
TX-PRES 2008:  43.6% DEM

 

In white white rural counties he did do quite worse though.

In like Beaumont County, TX or Tishimingo County, MS.

[Del Tachi]

He didn't (at least not in MS and TX)?

MS-SEN 2006:  34.9% DEM
MS-PRES 2008:  43.0% DEM

TX-SEN 2002:  43.3% DEM
TX-PRES 2008:  43.6% DEM

 

In white white rural counties he did do quite worse though.

In like Beaumont County, TX or Tishimingo County, MS.

These places were trending towards Republicans both before and after Obama as well, and their reaction to candidate Obama is probably an over-analysis to some extent.

[Sumner 1868]

Moderate racists willing to accept blacks as Senator but not as President?

[TDAS04]

Harold Ford did pretty well probably because he appeared quite culturally conservative.  That doesn't explain why Obama performed worse in TN than Kerry, but perhaps Ford being a bit of a DINO enabled him to win over some moderate racists--who were willing to overlook race in the Senate race, while Obama was too much for them.

[darklordoftech]

Obama’s middle name being the last name of someone who America had a just waged a war against could be a factor.

[TML]

I think another factor was probably the dwindling number of Greatest (GI) Generation voters, which is/was a reliably Democratic cohort. By the late 2000s/early 2010s, this cohort had dwindled to a point where they were no longer able to ensure Democratic victories in many ancestrally Democratic areas.

[Covid]

Trends always change faster on the presidential level than for the US senate.

[Smash255]

He didn't (at least not in MS and TX)?

MS-SEN 2006:  34.9% DEM
MS-PRES 2008:  43.0% DEM

TX-SEN 2002:  43.3% DEM
TX-PRES 2008:  43.6% DEM

 

In white white rural counties he did do quite worse though.

In like Beaumont County, TX or Tishimingo County, MS.

Many of those areas by in large have been trending Republican both before and after Obama.  Now if you were comparing during the same election cycle or even an election cycle or so after then it might  make an apt argument.  However, Tishomingo for example has been trending Republican for 30+ years so Obama doing worse than Fleming did in 06 I really don't think you can read much into.  Obama and Fleming had very similar #'s FWIW there in 2008.  Tishomingo also literally has 10% of the 25+ population with a Bachelor's degree. 

[Sumner 1868]

Since we have no exit polls for anything in 2002 or Mississippi in 2006, we can only compare exit polls for Tennessee.

2006

White Male: Corker 61%, Ford 39%
White Women: Corker 56%, Ford 42%
18-29: Ford 51%, Corker 49%
30-44: Corker 54%, Ford 44%
45-60: Corker 55%, Ford 44%
Over 60: Ford 53%, Corker 46%
Over 65: Ford 52%, Corker 46%
No College Degree: Ford 50%, Corker 49%
College Graduates: Corker 56%, Ford 43%
Liberal: Ford 89%, Corker 11%
Moderate: Ford 63%, Corker 35%
Conservative: Corker 80%, Ford 19%
White Evangelical/Born-Again: Corker 65%, Ford 33%
Incomes under $15,000: Ford 67%, Corker 31%

2008
White Male: McCain 64%, Obama 31%
White Women: McCain 63%, Obama 36%
18-29: Obama 55%, McCain 43%
30-44: McCain 61%, Obama 36%
45-64: McCain 55%, Obama 43%
Over 65: McCain 59%, Obama 36%
No College Degree: McCain 57%, Obama 40%
College Graduate: McCain 53%, Obama 44%
Liberal: Obama 84%, McCain 13%
Moderate: Obama 48%, McCain 47%
Conservative: McCain 82%, Obama 17%
White Evangelical/Born-Again: McCain 75%, Obama 22%
Incomes Under $15,000: Obama 48%, McCain 41%

So we get some idea of who Ford 06/McCain 08 voters were. I'd imagine the TX and MS ones were pretty similar.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Obama’s middle name being the last name of someone who America had a just waged a war against could be a factor.

Obama's foreign sounding name was a big problem in the South as well. Most blacks have the same names as whites, so people like Harold Ford had 'American' names.

[Agonized-Statism]

"Hussein", like most posters are saying, and he was a national politician. Statewide, you can tailor your message more for the people of your state. Obama wasn't aiming to win Tennessee, Mississippi, and Texas.

Gotta keep in mind that this is all based on people's perceptions. I personally consider Obama way, way closer to white on the gradient than everyone says, but that middle name was a big turnoff for those voters who would ignorantly associate him with, say, the Nation of Islam. In their minds: Black man + Arab middle name = Dashiki-wearing black nationalist hippie who wants to end my way of life. Other black politicians, perceived as conservative Christians unconnected to 1960s counterculture, play better. In reality, Obama was as plain as neoliberals come, but good luck telling them that.

[Indy Texas]

I don't think you can underrate how low information voters wouldn't necessarily know that someone named Harold Ford was black but would clearly discern someone named Barack Obama was not white.

Politically disengaged voters did not really make the connection of the Democrats being the "black people's party" and the Republicans being the "white people's party" until after Obama ran as their nominee.

[Indy Texas]

"Hussein", like most posters are saying, and he was a national politician. Statewide, you can tailor your message more for the people of your state. Obama wasn't aiming to win Tennessee, Mississippi, and Texas.

Gotta keep in mind that this is all based on people's perceptions. I personally consider Obama way, way closer to white on the gradient than everyone says, but that middle name was a big turnoff for those voters who would ignorantly associate him with, say, the Nation of Islam. In their minds: Black man + Arab middle name = Dashiki-wearing black nationalist hippie who wants to end my way of life. Other black politicians, perceived as conservative Christians unconnected to 1960s counterculture, play better. In reality, Obama was as plain as neoliberals come, but good luck telling them that.

The irony is that Obama was probably the "whitest" black politician at the time. White bread Kansas lineage from his mother; zero African-American roots; father was totally out of the picture so no black/African influence on his upbringing; prep school education in Hawaii; college at Occidental, Columbia and Harvard, no HBCUs.

If he had married a white woman, he would basically have no connection to Black America whatsoever.

[Agonized-Statism]

The irony is that Obama was probably the "whitest" black politician at the time. White bread Kansas lineage from his mother; zero African-American roots; father was totally out of the picture so no black/African influence on his upbringing; prep school education in Hawaii; college at Occidental, Columbia and Harvard, no HBCUs.

If he had married a white woman, he would basically have no connection to Black America whatsoever.

A lot of that was media hype, too. I wonder if his own campaign fed into the "black candidate" image to win some southern states in the primaries.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I don't think you can underrate how low information voters wouldn't necessarily know that someone named Harold Ford was black but would clearly discern someone named Barack Obama was not white.

Politically disengaged voters did not really make the connection of the Democrats being the "black people's party" and the Republicans being the "white people's party" until after Obama ran as their nominee.

I disagree, race has always been America's original sin. Even though Carter and Clinton were Bubbas they were still considered part of the black party.

[Orwell]

I think you guys are kinda missing the point of the white yellow dogs dying

[MIKESOWELL]

Partly because he was running for president and not just a regional or local political position.

[TDAS04]

Interestingly, Doug Wilder carried Southwest VA in 1989.  Also, Carol Mosley Braun Carried several Southern IL counties in 1992 that Obama lost in 2008.

[Sumner 1868]

Interestingly, Doug Wilder carried Southwest VA in 1989.  Also, Carol Mosley Braun Carried several Southern IL counties in 1992 that Obama lost in 2008.

A lot of that is the politics of coal within the Democratic Party that emerged from Gore's nomination in 2000.

[Politician]

Because trends take longer to filter downballot

[Stranger in a strange land]

I think you guys are kinda missing the point of the white yellow dogs dying

This was obviously a long-term factor, but it can't fully explain everything being discussed in this thread: there's no way enough of them died in TN between 2006 and 2008 to make such a big difference.

[jamestroll]

I think you guys are kinda missing the point of the white yellow dogs dying

This was obviously a long-term factor, but it can't fully explain everything being discussed in this thread: there's no way enough of them died in TN between 2006 and 2008 to make such a big difference.

You could argue that racism did cost Ford the election in 2006. Though to be frank, Corker was the most acceptable of the GOP candidates. Ford could have well been elected Senator against another Republican candidate. Considering the luck that Democrats had in 2012 he could have been re-elected but may have lost or retired in 2018.

Back at the time Tennessee and Arkansas were seen to have the "perfect percentage of blacks". Not large enough that whites would completely abandon the Democratic Party but large enough to push most Democrats over the top in competitive races.

Today, it is more likely that South Carolina, Georgia, Missisippi or Louisiana elect a Democrat statewide than Tennessee.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

When you’re running for a senate seat you can cater solely to your states electoral environment, rather than that of the nation. Additionally there were characteristics unique Obama which damaged his performance with Rural white Democrats, such as his “clingers” statement which both Hillary and the Republicans exploited. The aforementioned speculation is more sound than thinking a massive chunk of Demosaurs had this elaborate tier system where their support for minority candidates abruptly cuts off if they’re running for too high a position...