2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida  (Read 56395 times)
Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,944
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« on: November 29, 2021, 11:57:03 AM »



This is what I was expecting from the beginning.   

It seems Sabatini's unpopularity with the FL GOP is what's keeping them from cracking FL-7,  this is the only map that does it.

That 6th is really marginal. Murphy might be hang on, or flip it back in 2024
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,944
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2021, 03:52:28 PM »



This is what I was expecting from the beginning.   

It seems Sabatini's unpopularity with the FL GOP is what's keeping them from cracking FL-7,  this is the only map that does it.

Honestly looking at this map it could very likely end up a 12/13 democratic map if the Orlando and Tampa area seats trend blue along with one of the other marginal seats (Hialeah, Key West seats especially)
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,944
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2022, 06:27:43 PM »

Sorry for the double post but what an incredible map lol



I hope it gets adopted and turns the Cubanos back to democrats

Hey a man can dream
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,944
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2022, 06:22:45 PM »



Congress is now the only one left.

That 62 is something...
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,944
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2022, 11:47:04 PM »

A Democratic district can be drawn in Duval, wouldn't that be effectively black influence?

Not yet. The numbers and trends suggest though that it is very close and would almost certainly be an option if we did mid-decade censuses.

This would be 43% white, 37% black, 12% Hispanic, 7% Asian. Biden +14.

Surely that's enough to be black performing? Black people are bound to be a comfortable majority in Dem primaries, and the Dem primary winner will win the general election race.



The issue here was never the Dem Primary - the Jacksonville mayoral contests show that African American voters control the Democratic side of the city - but the generals. To that end - what is the Dem margins there? Most importantly, the exogenous 2018 gov race. A simple west Duval seat I drew up in 1 minute had margins between 5 and 10%, with Rubio winning the seat. That's not enough allies for the African American primary voters to defend the seat and make it constantly perform. Especially since a Duval only seat would be looking at the tighter Black-White mayoral races as exogenous contests to measure by - those these are not in DRA. These are also new allies, whereas say downtown Richmond or downtown New Orleans are long term blocks of coalition White voters. FL-10 offers another comparison here.

To that end, Alachua-Duval would certainly work this decade, but since the original point was to concentrate a seat in the Duval region, that option is beyond the scope of this analysis.

The point about mayoral elections isn’t the best point as jacksonville the city is larger then a congressional district and includes a lot of the white suburbs and wealthy beaches. 
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,944
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2022, 07:29:04 AM »

If DeSantis will just veto any non-gerrymander map (looking likely at this point), why wouldn't the legislature just pass his map?
If they don't pass his map it'll just end up in the courts anyway because they'll have no map at all, so if they're afraid of the map ending up in court why don't they just pass DeSantis' map if it'll end up in court either way?

And if they really wanted to they could pass both DeSantis' map and their usual map as a backup in the case that DeSantis' map gets overturned by the courts.

The calculations for Democrats is different then republicans. The VRA works simultaneously for and against democrats depending on the state, but usually the most egregious gerrymanders done by democrats is in majority white areas (like Upstate New York or Down state Illinois) where there is little to no precedent prohibiting such, so there is little risk of a court challenge.

For Republicans trying to minimize democratic seats (especially in the south) means getting rid of minority seats, and if they over stretch they run the risk of having their whole map thrown out in a court challenge as what happened to North Carolina.

DeSantis is spending much of his energy on trying to nuke Lawson’s black plurality seat, something that most in the legislature seem to have no appetite for as they know it likely will be a lot of work and attention for no gain. The whole debacle really makes DeSantis look a lot less savvy
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,944
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2022, 12:53:01 PM »



I was told by MCI maps he was appealing to a voter base of 500 people.

Sounds like no veto override session either.

“Upheld by the courts” sounds like a direct jab at DeSantis’s shenanigans in north Florida
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