2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Tekken_Guy]

Four new plans by The Florida Senate Committee on Reapportionment dropped November 24

S000C8018
S000C8020
S000C8022
S000C8024

The initial conflict between whether to align FL-21 and FL-22 North to South or West to East remains, as does the Alachua County decision. However, a number of other minor changes have been made common to all these maps. None in Miami-Dade, Hillsborough, or Duval Counties though.

They all are counterparts of the original four maps, except with the new changes (8002 with 8018, 8004 with 8020, etc.)


Here are DRA links to the initial four plans (courtesy of "michael.mcdonald"):

S000C8002 (Alachua split; FL-21 and FL-22 East / West)
S000C8004 (Alachua whole; FL-21 and FL-22 North / South)
S000C8006 (Alachua split; FL-21 and FL-22 North / South)
S000C8008 (Alachua whole; FL-21 and FL-22 East / West)

That FL-22 in the East-West divide was only Biden+9. I wonder if it will be competitive in 2022?

[Tekken_Guy]

-SNIP-

That FL-22 in the East-West divide was only Biden+9. I wonder if it will be competitive in 2022?

On the surface, it may look as if that'd be the case, and it possibly will be in the upcoming gubernatorial and senatorial races. It's a majority-White, suburban, affluent coastal district with a notably elderly population (only 14.8% youth, compared to 19.5% statewide and 22.1% nationwide) and a very large Jewish contingent (holding the city of Boca Raton). It swung significantly towards the right between the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential elections, going from Clinton+11.4 to Biden+9.8, and Youngkin and Ciattarelli's messages back earlier this month resonated very hard with this kind of district.

However, this ignores the presence of the current Democratic incumbent, Ted Deutch, a Jewish man from Boca Raton who is very pro-Israel and is very in-tune with his area, significantly outperforming both Clinton (by 2.0%) and Biden (by 2.4%). Perhaps a DSA-type candidate could make things interesting, but as long as Deutch keeps on running, I think the Democrats would keep the seat.

It's not hard to see Rubio or DeSantis win the district next year, especially Rubio. Their coattails could pull a candidate to victory over the finish line. Though it probably flips back D in 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

-SNIP-

That FL-22 in the East-West divide was only Biden+9. I wonder if it will be competitive in 2022?

On the surface, it may look as if that'd be the case, and it possibly will be in the upcoming gubernatorial and senatorial races. It's a majority-White, suburban, affluent coastal district with a notably elderly population (only 14.8% youth, compared to 19.5% statewide and 22.1% nationwide) and a very large Jewish contingent (holding the city of Boca Raton). It swung significantly towards the right between the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential elections, going from Clinton+11.4 to Biden+9.8, and Youngkin and Ciattarelli's messages back earlier this month resonated very hard with this kind of district.

However, this ignores the presence of the current Democratic incumbent, Ted Deutch, a Jewish man from Boca Raton who is very pro-Israel and is very in-tune with his area, significantly outperforming both Clinton (by 2.0%) and Biden (by 2.4%). Perhaps a DSA-type candidate could make things interesting, but as long as Deutch keeps on running, I think the Democrats would keep the seat.

It's not hard to see Rubio or DeSantis win the district next year, especially Rubio. Their coattails could pull a candidate to victory over the finish line. Though it probably flips back D in 2024.

Interesting to know is that Rubio only lost this district by 6.5% in 2016 while Trump 2016 lost it by 11.4% (and DeSantis two years later by 13.3%).

Personally, I think that Rubio's strength is definitely underrated in suburban White areas of Florida (he even won Hillsborough County in 2016!). I wouldn't go so far as to say their coattails would flip it, though, unless the Republicans have an equally strong challenger to the popular incumbent Deutch.

And this, of course, is all based on the presumption that DeSantis and Rubio would be able to win the district, which would take immensely unlikely double-digit victories statewide. If DeSantis and Rubio are winning this district at all, the Republicans already have 54 senate seats and upwards of 240 House seats.

There are two GOP state reps in the area, Chip LaMarca and Mike Caruso, who won seats by double digits that Biden and Trump virtually tied in.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1465340478686044167

This is what I was expecting from the beginning.   

It seems Sabatini's unpopularity with the FL GOP is what's keeping them from cracking FL-7,  this is the only map that does it.

And it does so without going into Sabatini’s home-base of Lake.

I wonder what’s keeping them from drawing out FL-13 though?

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah, as others have said, this DeSantis map doesn't seem to be an actual legitimate proposal, just something to set the tone for what he wants which seems to be more aggressive. It's overall sloppy and too many incumbents would be unhappy.

Even though this map is 19-9 on 2020, it doesn't, there are a lot of Trump + 5ish seats that could foreseeably fall (FL-03, FL-06, FL-17, FL-21, FL-27, FL-28) so it doesn't even do a particularly great job at gerrymandering, more just tries to shoot the Dems floor down to 8 and prolly reduce them to 8 seats in 2022.

The floor might be 7 or 6 actually. That FL-25 and even that FL-21 will be contested, though both may end up just being fools gold for the GOP.

[Tekken_Guy]

Now Republicans are bracing for DeSantis to keep his promise and haul them back into a special session, worrying that he might hit the campaign trail and use his popularity and the bully pulpit to bring election-year pressure on those who bucked him.

“DeSantis has carved out his own lane in the GOP: the Voldemort lane,” said Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber, a Democrat who clashed with DeSantis over Covid lockdowns and who was involved in Democrats’ redistricting efforts in 2010.

Lol we have the Harry Potter Democrats.

Republicans in the Legislature say they were taken aback by DeSantis’ power play, with one describing him as being hyperfocused on redistricting compared to other issues.

“In meetings, he would just demand: ‘Pass my maps! My maps! My maps!’ He’s just bizarrely obsessed with this. He won’t let it go. He won’t listen to reason,” said a Republican who didn’t want to criticize DeSantis publicly.

It’s jarring to hear the Voldemort analogy, given that’s who DeSantis’s predecessor was often compared to.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1773104449944211609?t=MYFw9GhJXEmMxI81E8o...

Well its last chance is the State Supreme Court.