2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My 18-10 Map:





24,21,27 are Hispanic VAP Majority. 22,23 are black VAP plurality (~45%)

16 is a Hispanic VRA at 49% Hispanic VAP. 20 is Hispanic Opportunity at 43.7%-43.6% white-hispanic VAP.

5 should keep Lawson decently happy, it is 45.6% White, 41.8% Black on VAP and a 44.5% Black Plurality on Total Population

Rs would be set to get 4 seats in the Miami-Palm Beach Area vs 3. 20, 28, 21 would be taken by existing incumbents and 27 is the "added district" and would elect a new R. The area would continue to have 5 democrat-occupied districts, though the 24th could flip in an R wave.

The other 5 Dems are Lawson, Crist, Castor, and the two Orlando-Area Sinks.

Stephanie Murphy is pretty dead, no matter where she would decide to run here. The new 7th is 59% Trump. Other options are better but not great - The 4th is Trump +7 and the 13th is Trump +5.

There is a half-hearted attempt to go after Kathy Castor in what I re-numbered as the 12th, but it is still Biden +1 and trending D so it probably holds for her.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My 18-10 Map:





24,21,27 are Hispanic VAP Majority. 22,23 are black VAP plurality (~45%)

16 is a Hispanic VRA at 49% Hispanic VAP. 20 is Hispanic Opportunity at 43.7%-43.6% white-hispanic VAP.

5 should keep Lawson decently happy, it is 45.6% White, 41.8% Black on VAP and a 44.5% Black Plurality on Total Population

Rs would be set to get 4 seats in the Miami-Palm Beach Area vs 3. 20, 28, 21 would be taken by existing incumbents and 27 is the "added district" and would elect a new R. The area would continue to have 5 democrat-occupied districts, though the 24th could flip in an R wave.

The other 5 Dems are Lawson, Crist, Castor, and the two Orlando-Area Sinks.

Stephanie Murphy is pretty dead, no matter where she would decide to run here. The new 7th is 59% Trump. Other options are better but not great - The 4th is Trump +7 and the 13th is Trump +5.

There is a half-hearted attempt to go after Kathy Castor in what I re-numbered as the 12th, but it is still Biden +1 and trending D so it probably holds for her.

This would obviously never pass the fair maps law

Far from clear the FLSC would care. It's 7 GOP judges, a majority of which were appointed by Scott or DeSantis. Probably they would do what DeSantis wants. The state GOP is very weak in its proposals of a status quo map.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My 18-10 Map:





24,21,27 are Hispanic VAP Majority. 22,23 are black VAP plurality (~45%)

16 is a Hispanic VRA at 49% Hispanic VAP. 20 is Hispanic Opportunity at 43.7%-43.6% white-hispanic VAP.

5 should keep Lawson decently happy, it is 45.6% White, 41.8% Black on VAP and a 44.5% Black Plurality on Total Population

Rs would be set to get 4 seats in the Miami-Palm Beach Area vs 3. 20, 28, 21 would be taken by existing incumbents and 27 is the "added district" and would elect a new R. The area would continue to have 5 democrat-occupied districts, though the 24th could flip in an R wave.

The other 5 Dems are Lawson, Crist, Castor, and the two Orlando-Area Sinks.

Stephanie Murphy is pretty dead, no matter where she would decide to run here. The new 7th is 59% Trump. Other options are better but not great - The 4th is Trump +7 and the 13th is Trump +5.

There is a half-hearted attempt to go after Kathy Castor in what I re-numbered as the 12th, but it is still Biden +1 and trending D so it probably holds for her.

This would obviously never pass the fair maps law

Far from clear the FLSC would care. It's 7 GOP judges, a majority of which were appointed by Scott or DeSantis. Probably they would do what DeSantis wants. The state GOP is very weak in its proposals of a status quo map.

* or actually, some of the state GOP.

Apparently some of them have some guts and may actually try 18-10: https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/11/29/new-draft-redistricting-map-in-florida-cuts-up-murphys-seat-boosts-gop-1396060