2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I created a map for South Florida that has 4 Majority-Latino and 1 Majority-Black Congressional Districts under CVAP (Link on Dave's Redistricting App):



I plan to expand this later.


Opinions?

I like the clean districts. I generally don't really like having so much crossing between Miami-Dade and Broward but it works in context.
A question arises as to what happens with Collier but I assume the most logical course of action is simply splitting Lee in 2.
This arrangement also makes for an Okechobee district to be made.

[Biden his time]

I created a map for South Florida that has 4 Majority-Latino and 1 Majority-Black Congressional Districts under CVAP (Link on Dave's Redistricting App):



I plan to expand this later.


Opinions?

I like the clean districts. I generally don't really like having so much crossing between Miami-Dade and Broward but it works in context.
A question arises as to what happens with Collier but I assume the most logical course of action is simply splitting Lee in 2.
This arrangement also makes for an Okechobee district to be made.

Creating an Okeechobee-centered District is part of the plan in the first place so that works nicely.

I plan to split Lee and Collier both between the Okeechobee District (Lehigh Acres and the inland suburbs will go here) and a coastal District (which will include Cape Coral, Naples, possibly Ft. Myers) as of right now, but it may work out differently in the end.

[Sol]

I'm not sure what you mean by questionable. I quite like it that the rural areas of inland Southern Florida have their own district, and it was one of my main goals when creating the map. I've always thought they're quite culturally and economically distinct from the surrounding coastal urban areas in the Miami Metro and SW Florida. I did need to add some of the suburbs in Lee County to make the population of the District viable, but as the population inland expands, eventually there'll be no need for that.

What I was referring to with that is the slight dip into more densely populated territory on the east coast--I do agree, figuring out how to deal with those inland counties is hellacious.

I think y'all will find that the population map is a little tricky for an Inland districts+Collier/Lee setup if you aren't dipping a latino district into collier--it tends to create a domino effect which FUBARs the Tampa/Orlando area if you aren't careful.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b22b7093-1230-4b24-8d6e-997ab7f521d6
FL map I've made just now.
It was inspired by Abdullah's map, though far from identical to it. I have two black seats in Miami-Dade and Broward. I also drew a minority-influence district in Palm Beach County. Thankfully the math allowed me to avoid county splits at some key areas. I was able to nest 6 in Hillsborough+Pineallas+Pasco+Polk and 3 in Lee+Collier+Charlotte+Sarasota+Hardee+DeSoto+Manatee, as well as 3 in Orange+Seminole+Osceola. I also was able to create a whole-county CD in North-Central FL taking in Ocala and Gainesville.
There are 15 DeSantis and 14 Gillium districts, which is quite fair to me. The median district is the 13th, that rings around a Tampa district drawn to be minority influence as well, much like the current seat. It is pretty much the successor to the old 15th district on the court-drawn map of the 2010s.

[beesley]

20-9 Map

As well as being a great 20-9 map I have to say I genuinely admired the quality of your map presentation.

[Sol]

Anyone else find the precincts in Tampa really annoying to work with?

Yes, definitely. Every other precinct you color activates some more blocks on the opposite side of the county, and ironing out the exclaves takes ages when done by hand. Lee County has a similar problem in Ft. Myers and the surrounding areas.

It'll probably be fixed as Dave puts in the 2020 Election Data (which he is currently uploading for different states).


I created a map for Broward, Miami-Dade, and Monroe Counties that has 4 Majority-Latino and 1 Majority-Black Congressional Districts under CVAP (Link on Dave's Redistricting App):



All figures are from 2017 (or the 2019 5-Year ACS, which most accurately reflects 2017 figures)

Opinions on the map?

This looks really good! You can also do a little precinct trading as well, which will help cut down on municipality splits.

The only reason why I didn't draw Miami that way was because putting Hialeah in with Broward made me a little nervous, since one is basically drawing a Democratic Latino majority seat where the candidate of choice for the Latino community is probably a Republican.

[Sol]

Inspired by TimTurner's innovative approach to the Okechobee problem, here's a map which adopts that and marries it with a few other considerations:


link

[S019]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c29ea525-2bb3-47ad-bedd-a4e398cca30a I attempted a GOP map of Florida that I think mostly follows the fair maps law and doesn't do anything too egregious

[Skill and Chance]

So what changes most now that we know they are only getting 28 seats?

[Biden his time]

So what changes most now that we know they are only getting 28 seats?

It really depends which part of Florida underperformed the most relative to the state. We really don't know at this point. It could, for instance, be the Puerto Rican areas in the Orlando metro (Puerto Rico overperformed by about 100K so it'd even out nicely), or perhaps there's a smaller Cuban population than expected in Hialeah, West Miami-Dade, and the Tampa Bay Area. Maybe the retirees in the Villages and company aren't as numerous as expected (also would make sense because NY, NJ, IL all overperformed and that's where the retirees come from).

Personally, I think the last factor probably has the most to do with Florida's underperformance, so I think the proposed new district near the villages and Ocala which most people expected was going to form won't come into being. I could easily be wrong, though.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AnthonySabatini/status/1397970002247102465

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/AnthonySabatini/status/1397970002247102465

So I guess they think the state Supreme Court will COMPLETELY disregard the Fair Districts Amendment. Unnecessarily splitting counties (no reason to split Seminole county other than to help Republicans) would go completely against that.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/AnthonySabatini/status/1397970002247102465

It's amazing that losers like this get elected even by Republicans.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AnthonySabatini/status/1397970002247102465

So I guess they think the state Supreme Court will COMPLETELY disregard the Fair Districts Amendment. Unnecessarily splitting counties (no reason to split Seminole county other than to help Republicans) would go completely against that.

The current map splits Lake/Polk/Marion which are both all into 3. Overall central Florida only has a few counties but also a lot of districts. I highly doubt splitting 1 county in 3 where 3 other similarly sized counties are split into 3 is going to be that controversial. That tan district does have other county split issues perhaps but 1 specific county being split into 3 is not the biggest issue.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1397988994835574785?s=20

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1397988994835574785?s=20

This dude thinks putting St.Pete with FL 14th thereby creating a 27% black district makes for a VRA violation.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1397988994835574785?s=20

This dude thinks putting St.Pete with FL 14th thereby creating a 27% black district makes for a VRA violation.

This doesn't change the fact that state GOP leadership doesn't like him.

[Nyvin]

I don't see them dropping the FL-5 AA seat.  Minority access seats pretty much never go away.   Even with the R State Supreme Court it'll exist in some fashion somewhere.  The optics of drawing it out to replace it with a bunch of 55% R seats is absolutely horrible.

[lfromnj]

I don't see them dropping the FL-5 AA seat.  Minority access seats pretty much never go away.   Even with the R State Supreme Court it'll exist in some fashion somewhere.  The optics of drawing it out to replace it with a bunch of 55% R seats is absolutely horrible.

Yes because the current fl5th looks so clean and nice on the optical side to the average voter.

The much more moderate GA gop was also willing to draw out the similarly non sensible Ga 12th even if it was a minority access seat.

Democrats could argue for a seat purely based in Jacksonville and that had a chance in a lawsuit. I do not see current courts requiring Fl 5th in current form.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I really hope DRA adds 2020 election results for FL soon as the 2016 data is very useless for making districts in SoFL.

[Nyvin]

I don't see them dropping the FL-5 AA seat.  Minority access seats pretty much never go away.   Even with the R State Supreme Court it'll exist in some fashion somewhere.  The optics of drawing it out to replace it with a bunch of 55% R seats is absolutely horrible.

Yes because the current fl5th looks so clean and nice on the optical side to the average voter.

The much more moderate GA gop was also willing to draw out the similarly non sensible Ga 12th even if it was a minority access seat.

Democrats could argue for a seat purely based in Jacksonville and that had a chance in a lawsuit. I do not see current courts requiring Fl 5th in current form.

Pretty shape of a district < Denying Blacks representation

I'm not sure GA-12 is fitting the role of "minority access" either.  It was a new seat when they drew it and only lasted two elections.   If it was it was a really terrible one.

[lfromnj]

I don't see them dropping the FL-5 AA seat.  Minority access seats pretty much never go away.   Even with the R State Supreme Court it'll exist in some fashion somewhere.  The optics of drawing it out to replace it with a bunch of 55% R seats is absolutely horrible.

Yes because the current fl5th looks so clean and nice on the optical side to the average voter.

The much more moderate GA gop was also willing to draw out the similarly non sensible Ga 12th even if it was a minority access seat.

Democrats could argue for a seat purely based in Jacksonville and that had a chance in a lawsuit. I do not see current courts requiring Fl 5th in current form.

Pretty shape of a district < Denying Blacks representation

I'm not sure GA-12 is fitting the role of "minority access" either.  It was a new seat when they drew it and only lasted two elections.   If it was it was a really terrible one.

Its not just the shape. Its the fact that Tallahassee and Jacksonville are 2 separate cities quite far apart. Just like how the old GA 12th in the 2000s originally went from Savanah to Augusta to Athens. The GOP made it drop Athens in 2006 and in 2010 they dropped Savanah .  To most people they would vote for an improved fair amendment only if the districts are ugly as those are easy to propagandize. Leaving FL 5th as is,increases the chances of a ballot measure succeeding if anything.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't see them dropping the FL-5 AA seat.  Minority access seats pretty much never go away.   Even with the R State Supreme Court it'll exist in some fashion somewhere.  The optics of drawing it out to replace it with a bunch of 55% R seats is absolutely horrible.

Yes because the current fl5th looks so clean and nice on the optical side to the average voter.

The much more moderate GA gop was also willing to draw out the similarly non sensible Ga 12th even if it was a minority access seat.

Democrats could argue for a seat purely based in Jacksonville and that had a chance in a lawsuit. I do not see current courts requiring Fl 5th in current form.

Pretty shape of a district < Denying Blacks representation

I'm not sure GA-12 is fitting the role of "minority access" either.  It was a new seat when they drew it and only lasted two elections.   If it was it was a really terrible one.

Its not just the shape. Its the fact that Tallahassee and Jacksonville are 2 separate cities quite far apart. Just like how the old GA 12th in the 2000s originally went from Savanah to Augusta to Athens. The GOP made it drop Athens in 2006 and in 2010 they dropped Savanah .  To most people they would vote for an improved fair amendment only if the districts are ugly as those are easy to propagandize. Leaving FL 5th as is,increases the chances of a ballot measure succeeding if anything.

I agree it's hard to justify FL-05 from a VRA/state law equivalent perspective . It's almost impossible to justify FL-05 while opposing LA-02 and agreeing that the 2011 VA-03 and NC-12 were unconstitutional. 

At the same time, it's not crazy to think R's would benefit strategically from keeping FL-05 this decade.
 Northeast Florida has significant dummymander potential for R's down the line and the backlash to drawing out a black congressman would only accentuate that. 

[Sol]

I don't see them dropping the FL-5 AA seat.  Minority access seats pretty much never go away.   Even with the R State Supreme Court it'll exist in some fashion somewhere.  The optics of drawing it out to replace it with a bunch of 55% R seats is absolutely horrible.

Yes because the current fl5th looks so clean and nice on the optical side to the average voter.

The much more moderate GA gop was also willing to draw out the similarly non sensible Ga 12th even if it was a minority access seat.

Democrats could argue for a seat purely based in Jacksonville and that had a chance in a lawsuit. I do not see current courts requiring Fl 5th in current form.

Pretty shape of a district < Denying Blacks representation

I'm not sure GA-12 is fitting the role of "minority access" either.  It was a new seat when they drew it and only lasted two elections.   If it was it was a really terrible one.

Its not just the shape. Its the fact that Tallahassee and Jacksonville are 2 separate cities quite far apart. Just like how the old GA 12th in the 2000s originally went from Savanah to Augusta to Athens. The GOP made it drop Athens in 2006 and in 2010 they dropped Savanah .  To most people they would vote for an improved fair amendment only if the districts are ugly as those are easy to propagandize. Leaving FL 5th as is,increases the chances of a ballot measure succeeding if anything.

I agree it's hard to justify FL-05 from a VRA/state law equivalent perspective . It's almost impossible to justify FL-05 while opposing LA-02 and agreeing that the 2011 VA-03 and NC-12 were unconstitutional. 

At the same time, it's not crazy to think R's would benefit strategically from keeping FL-05 this decade.
 Northeast Florida has significant dummymander potential for R's down the line and the backlash to drawing out a black congressman would only accentuate that. 

The worst case scenario for Republicans if they draw out FL-05 is a swingy seat in Jacksonville electing a Democrat, which is still better than a safe seat electing a Democrat.

I guess they might be worried about a Gwen Graham doppleganger in FL-02, but that seems fairly unlikely to me. Even if that was a major risk, having 2 seats for most of the decade and 0 seats for like 2 years at the worst seems like a better deal.

[S019]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71630c42-e6fa-46ad-ab9f-c0f2e44735a0, I attempted 28 Florida and it turned out much worse than my 29 attempt, not having a new seat in Miami Dade makes it tricky to figure out how to divide the county. I tried putting the new seat in Miami Dade at first, but that caused major issues elsewhere in the map.