2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Oryxslayer]

If De Santis vetoes the legislature's maps, could you see Democrats voting with Republicans to override it? At least assuming it's a reasonably fair map like the current Senate version.

That might be it's true purpose - to serve as a threat to get Dems to go along with less favorable lines then what we see now in the senate.

[GALeftist]

Honestly the Desantis map seems like a wasteful reason to cross the bay. It invites controversy  with little benefit . A bay cross can help make a secure map for all likely r districts but the map includes a tossup biden seat east of Tampa. At that point why not just make the tossup based in Pinellas at Biden +2 and then draw a Tampa district and just secure the rest of Hillsborough  to keep only 2 biden districts in the region with little complaints ?
Its unlikely Pinellas will trend in any specific direction while the East Tampa seat doesn't have the best of trends recently for the GOP

Obviously the ET idea that a st Pete Tampa district would violate the VRA is stupid  but its still a galvanizing proposal with little benefit .

I'll bet what happened is whoever drew the map drew it in like 10 minutes and didn't bother to check the partisan numbers and just assumed an east Hillsborough seat would be likely R. The whole map is sloppy in similar ways (double bunks incumbents, has Salazar in a Biden district, etc. etc.) and I don't think even the guy who drew it thinks it will become law. The point is to show that the governor (or people in his orbit) wants a better configuration in Tampa, not the particulars of how he wants it achieved.

I'm very skeptical that this map would recieve a VRA overturn for the same reasons that lfrmonj mentioned. The current FL-05 links two disconnected communities across hundreds of miles to secure a majority Black-seat -- almost a dead ringer for the old NC-12. Especially with the new map (seemingly?) having relatively clean borders I struggle to see the Supreme Court or the 11th Circuit overturning the map. In fact, combining the votes of Thomas (voted both in Cromartie and Harris to overturn NC-12) and Alito and Roberts (who voted to uphold NC-12 in Harris, but only the basis of stare decisis), I'm more inclined to think that there is a majority on the Supreme Court to get rid of FL-05 than to keep it.

The bigger issue is FL-20. You definitely need two black districts in metro Miami no matter how you slice it. However, the successor district to FL-20 they drew here is only 43.5% black by VAP, which should usually work but isn't great when it's easy to improve substantially. I don't really even know why they chopped it, since packing black voters is probably a positive for the GOP in Miami, but it's another example of sloppiness. Anyway that's one problem with this map, but despite its seriousness it's relatively easy to fix. Here are the deeper issues:

1. Obviously it violates the Florida constitution. The FLSC is probably hackish enough to ignore this but it's possible it could get hairy
2. Chopping FL-05 is beneficial to Republicans nationally but is bad for Dunn (FL-02) and Rutherford (FL-04) specifically as well as Tallahassee and Jacksonville Republicans more broadly. This is especially relevant since Gwen Graham got elected in a similar FL-02 to the one proposed in 2014
3. For whatever reason they waited until the Florida legislature was like halfway done with the process to do this, they would have had a much better negotiating position if they had done this ages ago

[GALeftist]

Sorry for the double post but what an incredible map lol

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1483202158028034050

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Sorry for the double post but what an incredible map lol

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1483202158028034050

I hope it gets adopted and turns the Cubanos back to democrats

Hey a man can dream

[lfromnj]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/01/17/florida-legislature-consider-desantis-proposed-redistricting-map-4-more-likely-gop-districts/

Oh never mind I forgot Breitbart boomers.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1483529296652255233

Florida Senate is proceeding with its plan. We'll see what happens in the House I suppose.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1483529296652255233
Florida Senate is proceeding with its plan. We'll see what happens in the House I suppose.

DeSantis' plan is an embarrassment only created to satiate a bunch of loudmouth conservatives. It never was going to pass the legislature.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1483529296652255233
Florida Senate is proceeding with its plan. We'll see what happens in the House I suppose.

DeSantis' plan is an embarrassment only created to satiate a bunch of loudmouth conservatives. It never was going to pass the legislature.

The FL Senate sees the plan exactly as what it is and gives it as much respect as it deserves.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1483529296652255233
Florida Senate is proceeding with its plan. We'll see what happens in the House I suppose.

DeSantis' plan is an embarrassment only created to satiate a bunch of loudmouth conservatives. It never was going to pass the legislature.

Agreed but it's interesting to me that they didn't even make any changes to Tampa or Orlando in response. I never expected the FL-05 chop or the silliness in South Florida to fly but those seemed like the areas where they would compromise with the governor if they compromised at all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1483529296652255233
Florida Senate is proceeding with its plan. We'll see what happens in the House I suppose.

DeSantis' plan is an embarrassment only created to satiate a bunch of loudmouth conservatives. It never was going to pass the legislature.

Agreed but it's interesting to me that they didn't even make any changes to Tampa or Orlando in response. I never expected the FL-05 chop or the silliness in South Florida to fly but those seemed like the areas where they would compromise with the governor if they compromised at all.

Probably either the Governor's influence on his legislators is weaker than it looks, or the map is too off-the-wall to get any sort of credibility whatsoever in any of its specifics, or both.

[THG]

IMO, a telling quote about redistricting in Florida from a fairly powerful State Senator:

“There seems to be a viewpoint that because a chamber has a map..that we are at a point in the process where we are wrapping it up and done” Rodrigues said. “I..point out we are at the very beginning of the process"

- FL Sen. Ray Rodrigues said in relation to the Desantis map

Link: https://floridapolitics.com/archives/487285-ron-desantis-map-sets-up-tension-with-legislature-over-redistricting-process/

[Oryxslayer]

IMO, a telling quote about redistricting in Florida from a fairly powerful State Senator:

“There seems to be a viewpoint that because a chamber has a map..that we are at a point in the process where we are wrapping it up and done” Rodrigues said. “I..point out we are at the very beginning of the process"

- FL Sen. Ray Rodrigues said in relation to the Desantis map

Link: https://floridapolitics.com/archives/487285-ron-desantis-map-sets-up-tension-with-legislature-over-redistricting-process/

Well right now in it's most simple form the House hasn't considered the map which passed the Senate committee. The potential for dueling proposals existed earlier, its only gone up - and that would require negotiation.

[Brittain33]

I do think a number of posters on Twitter have been far too sanguine about the DeSantis map and putting too much faith in the Senate to do what it wants.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So we're probably looking at a map that's less fair than the Senate one but nothing like the De Santis one. Something like the House map that nukes Murphy?

[lfromnj]

So we're probably looking at a map that's less fair than the Senate one but nothing like the De Santis one. Something like the House map that nukes Murphy?

The thing about the Desantis map is that it's obviously very aggressive in the north but gets less and less aggressive as one goes south.  First fl05 is nuked. Then fl07 is nuked but only Trump +5
Then the st Pete Tampa district but its basically useless.  It makes way more sense at that point to draw an actually fair map and then just cherry pick it slightly.
All 3 South Fl swing districts are weaker than the legislatures maps.



Something like this works the same without being as absurd. Regular St Pete district cherrypicked to get it to Biden +2. Then a Trailer park coast distrct. After that Eastern Pasco with Northern Hillsborough excluding Tampa and any black suburbs. Then a Tampa district. Finally a Southern Hillsborough district.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I agree that keeping a core St. Pete and core Tampa seats makes more sense than the current Senate configuration, tbh (it's weird that they're so adamant on creating 2 swing districts in Hillsborough, but who knows what they're thinking). In every other respect though the Senate map is clearly better.

[Oryxslayer]

I agree that keeping a core St. Pete and core Tampa seats makes more sense than the current Senate configuration, tbh (it's weird that they're so adamant on creating 2 swing districts in Hillsborough, but who knows what they're thinking). In every other respect though the Senate map is clearly better.

That's kinda why I expect Something similar to the House's Tampa map to be the final version: one east Tampa minority seat, and one West Tampa and near suburbs + St. Pete and her near suburbs.

[Mr.Phips]

So we're probably looking at a map that's less fair than the Senate one but nothing like the De Santis one. Something like the House map that nukes Murphy?

I’m guessing basically the DeSantis map but with FL-05 staying intact.  That’s what I expected all along.

[lfromnj]

So we're probably looking at a map that's less fair than the Senate one but nothing like the De Santis one. Something like the House map that nukes Murphy?

I’m guessing basically the DeSantis map but with FL-05 staying intact.  That’s what I expected all along.

Why not just do what I did in Tampa. Its much closer to what a good map does and won't invite as much controversy while barely sacrificing any partisan margin.  I love the trailer park COI as well

[MillennialModerate]

I’m confused why Florida Republicans didn’t go with a plan like DeSantis all along?

They have nothing to stop them at all…..

[Oryxslayer]

I’m confused why Florida Republicans didn’t go with a plan like DeSantis all along?

They have nothing to stop them at all…..

Clearly because they do see some hurdles that the laser-eyes are disregarding: the Senate is on record as wanting zero voting rights lawsuits, and the leg clearly believes that the provisions of the fair districts amendment clearly can't be disregarded - even though the GOP has the state Supreme Court.

[lfromnj]

I agree that keeping a core St. Pete and core Tampa seats makes more sense than the current Senate configuration, tbh (it's weird that they're so adamant on creating 2 swing districts in Hillsborough, but who knows what they're thinking). In every other respect though the Senate map is clearly better.

Well Desantis's Jacksonville district is still a gerrymander but better than FL05 . Also Desantis receding the Broward Black district to solely Broward is a reasonable decision. Its similar to Michigan dropping its black percentages or Ohio no longer having an Akron to Cleveland black district. All 3 of these suggested districts focused on maximizing black percentages within a broader metro so they weren't something like FL05/NC12.  Desantis merely reduced one of them. I think there would be a more reasonable move if Palm Beach then had a 30% black district drawn instead of splitting the Palm Beach black community.

[Oryxslayer]

if Palm Beach then had a 30% black district drawn instead of splitting the Palm Beach black community.

It honestly makes sense to lop the top of FL-20, make FL-21 into a Hispanic-AA coalition seat anchored by Palm Beach, and then nest FL-20 in Broward. However, the Haitian-African American splits within the Broward Black community made it politically impossible. Probably would have happened if Florida got seat 29, cause that one 'wants' to be the fourth M-D Hispanic seat and the effort needed to ensure it would also be a new GOP seat probably would necessitate a major resuffle of Broward and everything to its north.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, news from the floor:

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1483534943988895747?s=20

This amendment was accepted unanimously.

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1483910818009862152?s=20

[Nyvin]

Ron DeSantis' Press Secretary has made the following statement re: FL-05

“The northern Florida district is an unconstitutional gerrymander that unnaturally connects communities in Jacksonville with communities hours away in Tallahassee and Gadsden counties,” Pushaw wrote. “We eliminated this flagrant gerrymander. We believe our map is within constitutional requirements and performs better than the other maps on Tier 2 constitutional requirements, including compactness and preservation of boundaries, all while increasing the number of minority districts.”

The FDA literally states that the maps must produce districts that racial minorities can elect candidates of their choice.   Blacks in the Panhandle deserve a candidate of their choice, it's an obvious COI.   Florida has had a black opportunity district in the northern part of the state for decades, well before the FDA.  Are they seriously going to make the argument that blacks in northern/Central Florida get NO seats?  That's absurd.

FDA language-

Districts shall not be drawn to deny racial or language minorities the equal
opportunity to participate in the polit ical process and elect representatives of their choice.

Who would've thought a constitutional amendment that literally writes out protection for racial minorities' representation would be used to potentially remove their representation!