2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[ProgressiveModerate]

DeSantis has a lot of influence over the FL Legislature (I know people in the Florida SL and I know DeSantis).

That being said, the final map (while far more aggressive than the State Senate maps) won’t exactly be the DeSantis proposed map. I do expect the final map to possibly draw out FL-05 and have a similar partisan lean (18-19 Trump seats minimum), but it will shore up some R incumbents such as Salazar a bit more.

Except shoring up Salazar and Giminez more is hard without making Diaz-Balart mad; the Senate proposals already make his district into a Clinton one. The GOP seems to be betting on the idea that 2016 Miami-Dade was a fluke and 2020 will be the norm going forwards.

[THG]

DeSantis has a lot of influence over the FL Legislature (I know people in the Florida SL and I know DeSantis).

That being said, the final map (while far more aggressive than the State Senate maps) won’t exactly be the DeSantis proposed map. I do expect the final map to possibly draw out FL-05 and have a similar partisan lean (18-19 Trump seats minimum), but it will shore up some R incumbents such as Salazar a bit more.

Except shoring up Salazar and Giminez more is hard without making Diaz-Balart mad; the Senate proposals already make his district into a Clinton one. The GOP seems to be betting on the idea that 2016 Miami-Dade was a fluke and 2020 will be the norm going forwards.

Looking at the voter registration trends in Miami-Dade as well as the insane drivel the FL Dems are saying about Florida Hispanics, that’s probably a very good bet the GOP is making.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah, as others have said, this DeSantis map doesn't seem to be an actual legitimate proposal, just something to set the tone for what he wants which seems to be more aggressive. It's overall sloppy and too many incumbents would be unhappy.

Even though this map is 19-9 on 2020, it doesn't, there are a lot of Trump + 5ish seats that could foreseeably fall (FL-03, FL-06, FL-17, FL-21, FL-27, FL-28) so it doesn't even do a particularly great job at gerrymandering, more just tries to shoot the Dems floor down to 8 and prolly reduce them to 8 seats in 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

DeSantis has a lot of influence over the FL Legislature (I know people in the Florida SL and I know DeSantis).

That being said, the final map (while far more aggressive than the State Senate maps) won’t exactly be the DeSantis proposed map. I do expect the final map to possibly draw out FL-05 and have a similar partisan lean (18-19 Trump seats minimum), but it will shore up some R incumbents such as Salazar a bit more.

Except shoring up Salazar and Giminez more is hard without making Diaz-Balart mad; the Senate proposals already make his district into a Clinton one. The GOP seems to be betting on the idea that 2016 Miami-Dade was a fluke and 2020 will be the norm going forwards.

Looking at the voter registration trends in Miami-Dade as well as the insane drivel the FL Dems are saying about Florida Hispanics, that’s probably a very good bet the GOP is making.

Yes and no. For the furthest out parts of the County (say everything South of Kendall and Hialeah, this definitely seems true (FL25 and 26). However, iirc, Biden actually did better than Obama in FL-27 at least Obama in 2008. This is like Little Havana and the areas immediately outside the "CBD" of Miami with all the High-Rise condos. I think 2024 (and frankly the 2022 midterms) will be a test as to see what happens in Miami Dade because it almost always seems to swing towards the incumbent party regardless of what happens nationally. Even if the Cuban areas of Miami-Dade are shifting right (which I think by and large they are), I still think Biden's performance was uniquely bad, at least for now.

So ig what I'm trying to say is that it's not just 1 big universal shift; the wealthier, higher educated, more connected areas immediately outside CBD will prolly be neutral if not shift left while FL-26 and FL-25 continue their rightwards trajectory.

Keeping FL-27 marginal seems like the GOPs best bet. If it stagnates or shifts left, oh well, at least they had a chance at the start of the decade, and FL-26 and FL-25 can be more secure. If the GOP loses all 3 because of repeat 2016 performance, then there's prolly not much they could've done.

[Gass3268]

They aren't going to kill FL-05, a VRA district.

[ProgressiveModerate]

They aren't going to kill FL-05, a VRA district.

Actually, it's not a VRA district as it's only ~40% black, and it'd be very hard to make majority Black, even though it does functionally elect a black Dem

[Oryxslayer]

They aren't going to kill FL-05, a VRA district.

Actually, it's not a VRA district as it's only ~40% black, and it'd be very hard to make majority Black, even though it does functionally elect a black Dem

It doesn't need to be >50% to be performing, only >50% to qualify for section 2. Because it is performing under RPV, attempting to end it would qualify as retrogression.

There is a reason why the senate map, drawn specifically to avoid a court fight, does not even touch the seat. Similarly, the Senate found that the 10th is performing by statistical metrics even though that has less African American percentage.



Don't marry yourself to 50%, the courts have not. More than 50% is needed in some parts of the country, less than 39% in others.

[lfromnj]

They aren't going to kill FL-05, a VRA district.

Actually, it's not a VRA district as it's only ~40% black, and it'd be very hard to make majority Black, even though it does functionally elect a black Dem

It doesn't need to be >50% to be performing, only >50% to qualify for section 2. Because it is performing under RPV, attempting to end it would qualify as retrogression.

There is a reason why the senate map, drawn specifically to avoid a court fight, does not even touch the seat. Similarly, the Senate found that the 10th is performing by statistical metrics even though that has less African American percentage.



Don't marry yourself to 50%, the courts have not. More than 50% is needed in some parts of the country, less than 39% in others.

And lastly FL05 could very likely just get struck down in Federal Court anyway . Its not a geographically compact district and resembles nc12 of olde or the savanah Dekalb districts . No one has bothered to sue it. Push comes to shove fl05 in its current form is not VRA protected

[lfromnj]

That really seems like red meat to throw to conservative voters.   It completely spits on the Fair Districts Amendment everywhere and most likely violates the VRA in regards to black voters as well.

Also I don't believe the Florida Governor holds veto power over the maps anyway.  

Literally no conservative voters cares besides a few lazer eyes on Twitter. The only state GOP to get conservatives to care at all seems to have been Montana where they managed to keep Flathead in the west.

[GALeftist]

Dumb map. I think it's more noteworthy that DeSantis is saying he wants a more aggressive map than that he proposed this one specifically. What I don't really know is what might result from this. Like, if hypothetically the FL Senate was dead set on their map, the legislature probably has the votes to override a veto, right? How much leverage does DeSantis really have?

Anyway I just don't see them nuking FL-05 or doing any of that silliness in South Florida. I think there's a chance that they take the Senate map and nuke FL-07, change the Tampa configuration, and that's really about it.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah, as others have said, this DeSantis map doesn't seem to be an actual legitimate proposal, just something to set the tone for what he wants which seems to be more aggressive. It's overall sloppy and too many incumbents would be unhappy.

Even though this map is 19-9 on 2020, it doesn't, there are a lot of Trump + 5ish seats that could foreseeably fall (FL-03, FL-06, FL-17, FL-21, FL-27, FL-28) so it doesn't even do a particularly great job at gerrymandering, more just tries to shoot the Dems floor down to 8 and prolly reduce them to 8 seats in 2022.

The floor might be 7 or 6 actually. That FL-25 and even that FL-21 will be contested, though both may end up just being fools gold for the GOP.

[GALeftist]

Lol wait I just noticed that this map nukes FL-20. FL-05 might be a gray area but that district is straight up majority black. Unless the Supreme Court just wants to toss out the VRA in its entirety I don't see how this map is worth the time of day.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

They aren't going to kill FL-05, a VRA district.

They could still nuke the Tallahassee-to-Jacksonville arrangement, but they'd have to have 1 black-controlled CD in far northern Florida no matter what happens. The DeSantis map does not have such a district, and as such it's flagrantly illegal by default.

[Minnesota Mike]

This proposed map is more about the presidential race in 2024 than a realistic redistricting proposal. Have to keep the MAGA laser eyes happy.

[lfromnj]

This proposed map is more about the presidential race in 2024 than a realistic redistricting proposal. Have to keep the MAGA laser eyes happy.

Who exactly are the MAGA lazer eyes who are a substantial base for the 2024 primary? Its a few dozen twitter users.

[Minnesota Mike]

This proposed map is more about the presidential race in 2024 than a realistic redistricting proposal. Have to keep the MAGA laser eyes happy.

Who exactly are the MAGA lazer eyes who are a substantial base for the 2024 primary? Its a few dozen twitter users.

Agree it's not a huge group but it is an easy pander to some very engaged grass roots voters and highly partisan insiders.

[lfromnj]

Lol wait I just noticed that this map nukes FL-20. FL-05 might be a gray area but that district is straight up majority black. Unless the Supreme Court just wants to toss out the VRA in its entirety I don't see how this map is worth the time of day.

FYI you can just recede FL05 to Broward only to make it 46% black. Obviously a Broward Palm beach district isn't a horrific district but a Broward only district can work out. After that if one really cared they could also unite most of the black community in Palm Beach for a diverse 3 way split seat in demographics.  If it doesn't cause too much uproar it may not be a bad plan either for the FL GOP. Creating 2 deep blue districts instead of 1, can help make the remaining 2 White Dem districts a few points more R

[Brittain33]

FYI you can just recede FL05 to Broward only to make it 46% black.

No, you can’t. That’s not at all how VRA works. This comes up with Georgia where Republicans think you can get rid of GA-2 by giving Black voters another district in Atlanta. It’s not about the number of districts, it’s about the ability of a specific geographically defined community to elect the candidate of their choice. You need to enable the Black population of northern Florida or southwestern Georgia to have the opportunity for representation in Congress and a VRA district in Fort Lauderdale doesn’t do that any more than a district in Chicago or Prince George’s does.

[lfromnj]

FYI you can just recede FL05 to Broward only to make it 46% black.

No, you can’t. That’s not at all how VRA works. This comes up with Georgia where Republicans think you can get rid of GA-2 by giving Black voters another district in Atlanta. It’s not about the number of districts, it’s about the ability of a specific geographically defined community to elect the candidate of their choice. You need to enable the Black population of northern Florida or southwestern Georgia to have the opportunity for representation in Congress and a VRA district in Fort Lauderdale doesn’t do that any more than a district in Chicago or Prince George’s does.

I  meant to type fl 20th which is currently  majority black. It could be entirely within Broward and become 45% black.

Also please explain how Tallahassee to Jacksonville is geographically defined . Its just as absurd as nc12 and certain Georgia districts in the 90s which were shut down. Any vra lawsuit trying to save the current shape of the 5th is dead. An argument can be made/ an actual fair map would have just a whole Duval district minus the beach portion.  Overall fl 5 isn't an awful deal for Rs.  Instead of having a Biden +10  jax district and Trump +12 fl02 you have 1 safe r and 1 safe d..

[David Hume]

They aren't going to kill FL-05, a VRA district.

Actually, it's not a VRA district as it's only ~40% black, and it'd be very hard to make majority Black, even though it does functionally elect a black Dem

It doesn't need to be >50% to be performing, only >50% to qualify for section 2. Because it is performing under RPV, attempting to end it would qualify as retrogression.

There is a reason why the senate map, drawn specifically to avoid a court fight, does not even touch the seat. Similarly, the Senate found that the 10th is performing by statistical metrics even though that has less African American percentage.



Don't marry yourself to 50%, the courts have not. More than 50% is needed in some parts of the country, less than 39% in others.

You should also take into account the courts' partisan lean. 11th circuit is very partisan, with Chief Judge Pryor basically Alito. They can easily rule that FL-05 was not reasonably compact as it connects unrelated communities over a hundred miles away for the sole reason to make it 40% black.

At SC level, Roberts hates VRA intensively. His first job was basically to fight against VRA as a lawyer in the Reagan administration. He strongly believes colorblindness and detests racial quotas. If this case arrives at SC, he may simply refuse to gran cert. Or even worse for Dems, strike down VRA seats in total.

[GALeftist]

FYI you can just recede FL05 to Broward only to make it 46% black.

No, you can’t. That’s not at all how VRA works. This comes up with Georgia where Republicans think you can get rid of GA-2 by giving Black voters another district in Atlanta. It’s not about the number of districts, it’s about the ability of a specific geographically defined community to elect the candidate of their choice. You need to enable the Black population of northern Florida or southwestern Georgia to have the opportunity for representation in Congress and a VRA district in Fort Lauderdale doesn’t do that any more than a district in Chicago or Prince George’s does.

I  meant to type fl 20th which is currently  majority black. It could be entirely within Broward and become 45% black.

Also please explain how Tallahassee to Jacksonville is geographically defined . Its just as absurd as nc12 and certain Georgia districts in the 90s which were shut down. Any vra lawsuit trying to save the current shape of the 5th is dead. An argument can be made/ an actual fair map would have just a whole Duval district minus the beach portion.  Overall fl 5 isn't an awful deal for Rs.  Instead of having a Biden +10  jax district and Trump +12 fl02 you have 1 safe r and 1 safe d..

Yeah FL-05 isn't really a slam dunk for the Democrats in terms of partisanship because a fair map without it would probably still have a lean/likely D district contained within Duval. (Of course, the DeSantis map has no such district; instead, it splits Jacksonville black voters straight down the middle, which seems like a more compelling VRA violation, to me at least.) I think at least part of the reason it's still around is the Rs in Florida genuinely like it. It makes FL-02 a lot safer, protecting against a 2014 repeat, and it also makes the Jacksonville seat nice and safe for Rutherford or whatever other Jacksonville Republican wants a bite at the apple later on.

[lfromnj]

FYI you can just recede FL05 to Broward only to make it 46% black.

No, you can’t. That’s not at all how VRA works. This comes up with Georgia where Republicans think you can get rid of GA-2 by giving Black voters another district in Atlanta. It’s not about the number of districts, it’s about the ability of a specific geographically defined community to elect the candidate of their choice. You need to enable the Black population of northern Florida or southwestern Georgia to have the opportunity for representation in Congress and a VRA district in Fort Lauderdale doesn’t do that any more than a district in Chicago or Prince George’s does.

I  meant to type fl 20th which is currently  majority black. It could be entirely within Broward and become 45% black.

Also please explain how Tallahassee to Jacksonville is geographically defined . Its just as absurd as nc12 and certain Georgia districts in the 90s which were shut down. Any vra lawsuit trying to save the current shape of the 5th is dead. An argument can be made/ an actual fair map would have just a whole Duval district minus the beach portion.  Overall fl 5 isn't an awful deal for Rs.  Instead of having a Biden +10  jax district and Trump +12 fl02 you have 1 safe r and 1 safe d..

Yeah FL-05 isn't really a slam dunk for the Democrats in terms of partisanship because a fair map without it would probably still have a lean/likely D district contained within Duval. (Of course, the DeSantis map has no such district; instead, it splits Jacksonville black voters straight down the middle, which seems like a more compelling VRA violation, to me at least.) I think at least part of the reason it's still around is the Rs in Florida genuinely like it. It makes FL-02 a lot safer, protecting against a 2014 repeat, and it also makes the Jacksonville seat nice and safe for Rutherford or whatever other Jacksonville Republican wants a bite at the apple later on.

It actually doesn't split Jacksonville black voters right down the middle. A maximized district would maybe be like 37% black. This one is 34%. The vast majority of black voters in Jacksonville are west of the St.johns river which is used as the dividing point in the map. It merely splits off say slightly diverse areas in the Eastern half of Jacksonville that have more white moderate voters and replaced it with Clay/Nassau. Still a sneaky gerrymander similar to a say a compact Cinci gerrymander using Clermont county.

[lfromnj]

Honestly the Desantis map seems like a wasteful reason to cross the bay. It invites controversy  with little benefit . A bay cross can help make a secure map for all likely r districts but the map includes a tossup biden seat east of Tampa. At that point why not just make the tossup based in Pinellas at Biden +2 and then draw a Tampa district and just secure the rest of Hillsborough  to keep only 2 biden districts in the region with little complaints ?
Its unlikely Pinellas will trend in any specific direction while the East Tampa seat doesn't have the best of trends recently for the GOP



Obviously the ET idea that a st Pete Tampa district would violate the VRA is stupid  but its still a galvanizing proposal with little benefit .

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I'm very skeptical that this map would recieve a VRA overturn for the same reasons that lfrmonj mentioned. The current FL-05 links two disconnected communities across hundreds of miles to secure a majority Black-seat -- almost a dead ringer for the old NC-12. Especially with the new map (seemingly?) having relatively clean borders I struggle to see the Supreme Court or the 11th Circuit overturning the map. In fact, combining the votes of Thomas (voted both in Cromartie and Harris to overturn NC-12) and Alito and Roberts (who voted to uphold NC-12 in Harris, but only the basis of stare decisis), I'm more inclined to think that there is a majority on the Supreme Court to get rid of FL-05 than to keep it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If De Santis vetoes the legislature's maps, could you see Democrats voting with Republicans to override it? At least assuming it's a reasonably fair map like the current Senate version.