2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone else feel like the GOP will pull a last minute gotcha and like completely reconfigure Tampa? This still doesn’t make sense why they’d draw 3 Dem leaning seats unless they’re really cocky they can win all 3. There’s no real VRA or COI reason for this config, infact I’d argue it’s not great from either standpoint as it cracks minorities in Tampa, isnt based on any precedent, and isn’t really an incumbent thing since as the poster above pointed out you can make a Pinellas seat R-Leaning without touching any other R seats

This is the FL GOP, they ain’t stupid and I have a hard time seeing them just throw away 1-2 possible seats like that

One possibility is that it’s just a placeholder config for now; they drew giant rectangles because they weren’t sure what to do with Tampa yet and they plan on going through later and drawing a more favorable config

There seems to be a fundamental difference of opinion between the Florida Senate and the Florida House on what to do with redistricting. It will be interesting to see who wins out.

Actually one of the drafts we've seen from the House doesn't really look that bad. It shores up Gimenez and Salazar about as much as the Senate does and it doesn't axe Murphy's seat or even really make it redder. It does change the configuration in Tampa to be more R favorable and limit Ds to two seats but even then it doesn't axe Crist's seat or anything. Of course, there's also Sabatini's map which axes Murphy's seat, but everyone hates him so I'm hopeful they won't go with his map. (Plus, his map makes the new seat in Tampa a little tenuous as well.)

Unrelated question: how Hispanic are you allowed to make the Hialeah seat without running afoul of the VRA? Trying to draw a fair map of Florida.

One H000C8001 plan seems pretty reasonable though reduces Tampa to just a likely and lean D seat. However, I'd say the H000C8003 map is a gerrymander, though not the most aggressive one. The thing is it's really hard to shore up the South Miami seats more than they already are anyways because in order to do that you need to start pushing into Cape Coral area, which is just terrible from COI, doesn't help from a VRA standpoint, and just looks horrendous. The map reduces Orlando to only 2 Dem seats when it should clearly be 3.

From what it seems like, it seems like the FL GOP is making maps that at least for now try to protect their incumbents with relatively least change seats in the process keeping seats like FL-05 intact.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The map posted earlier that makes Murphy's seat Trump +4 wouldn't even help Sabatini. He lives in Lake county which would not be in the district, he would have to run against Webster which would be an uphill battle

[lfromnj]

https://redistricting.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=6d9c37ef54914e5f8de3df03e568f769

Dem senator submits map that is 17-11 .

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The map posted earlier that makes Murphy's seat Trump +4 wouldn't even help Sabatini. He lives in Lake county which would not be in the district, he would have to run against Webster which would be an uphill battle

GOP be like: Yeah, lets have maps that are fair to Dems. Only one thing matters to us. Screwing over Sabatini.

[Roll Roons]

I'm genuinely surprised that none of these maps have Disney World or Mar-A-Lago going into Republican districts. I guess the latter is tougher to do than the former, but still.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm genuinely surprised that none of these maps have Disney World or Mar-A-Lago going into Republican districts. I guess the latter is tougher to do than the former, but still.

Both are theoretically easy to do, though only in certain circumstances. Removing Disney and the SW corner of Orange from the Orlando 3-county grouping requires topping off with extraneous population, best found in Polk with the Latino spillover from Osceola. if however the mappers are considering county integrity, then adding two chops for Disney is unwise. It is done on the senate map.

Similarly, it' not hard to add East Palm Beach into FL-18 or it successor. It however is easiest done when you are lopping the top off FL-20, nesting it in Broward, and making one of FL-21/22 into a new coalition seat. The sprawling FL-20 has excess minority population and drops some areas north of West Palm Beach into Fl-18, whereas a new minority seat needs all the diverse Palm beach areas it can get. Lopping the top off also forces a N-S rather than E-W FL-21/22 and attempting a E-W while putting the White Shoreline in FL-18 doesn't look all that nice.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Fla_Pol/status/1480571371100983301?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Fla_Pol/status/1480571371100983301?s=20

These are the maps with N-S alignments for FL-21/22.

[Oryxslayer]

Not sure what the FL Senate GOP's game is here, unless they really think they are going to consistently win and hold a Biden +8 seat that's trending left.

The way how Tampa is cut in the Senate maps suggests that they might not have any idea either - especially since I noted one of the GOP incumbents is placed in the St. Pete seat, and the 3-way split may run afoul of the civil rights suits the GOP wishes to avoid. To that end, something similar to the House's version might become the final version: a St. Pete + west tampa, and a East tampa + Minority heavy East Bay.

Or the senate is preferring these lines to give one of their own opportunity. But we have not heard any hints about that.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/Mdixon55/status/1480994918676013057?s=20

[Roll Roons]

From eyeballing it, these would probably be my initial ratings for these seats.

Safe R:
FL-01 (Gaetz, ugh), FL-02 (Dunn), FL-03 (Cammack), FL-04 (Rutherford), FL-06 (Waltz), FL-08 (Posey), FL-11 (Webster), FL-12 (Bilirakis), FL-16 (Buchanan), FL-17 (Steube), FL-18 (Mast), FL-19 (Donalds), FL-25 (Diaz-Balart), FL-28 (Franklin)

Likely R: FL-26 (Gimenez)

Lean R: FL-27 (Salazar)

Tossup: FL-13 (Open), FL-15 (Open)

Lean D: FL-07 (Open)

Likely D: FL-09 (Soto), FL-14 (Castor), FL-21 (Frankel)

Safe D: FL-05 (Lawson), FL-10 (Open), FL-20 (Cherfilus-McCormick), FL-22 (Deutch), FL-23 (Wasserman Schultz), FL-24 (Wilson)

[_.]

Looks like they split FL-21 and FL-22 North/South rather than East/West, and they also kept Alachua County whole, deciding not to crack Gainesville.

Glad to see it!

[GALeftist]

Probably the state where growth was most R-friendly and they make the new seat a tossup. Wow.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1481800995135004675?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Expect that map to pass the Senate on a semi-bipartisan vote. The House and the Senate still however differ when it comes to the Tampa and maybe also Orlando (there were committee disagreements about it today between the chambers) and these differences need to be resolved.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bro if this holds I’m actually pretty happy with how FL Rs redistricted. They were relatively transparent, followed VRA, acknowledged current lines, didn’t make many “power grabs”, and does a decent job at COIs

[Unelectable Bystander]

Any chance the Florida GOP is expecting that the state is trending right faster than people assume and is doing this just to maximize potential gains in a good environment?

[BoiseBoy]

DeSantis' office is pushing an 18-10 map.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1482870530080485390

[Oryxslayer]

DeSantis' office is pushing a 20-8 map.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1482870530080485390

It's a very impressive gerrymander at the topline that's for sure. It's fairly sloppy at the finer points. And it would be near instantly sued, both under the VRA and the state's amendment. It's basically a reversion to the 2011 plan wherever possible or probable.

That said, one wonders how much capital is actually behind this. This is the first time the governor has put out a plan in decades. Unless something changes, the senate seems all but certain to pass it's own plan - a plan similar but different in crucial areas to the House's map. Therefore, there could be two secondary goals. One, to push the House-Senate negotiations towards those of that favor the GOP. Two, and perhaps the real reason, is to have an "excuse" to present for national and online  Republican partisans to preserve and further his own image when Florida passes a legislature map.

EDIT: like this s**t.

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1482878196680900619?s=20

There hasn't been much 'standard' legal effort behind this, which suggests the goal is more in the messaging.

[Skye]

DeSantis really woke up and chose violence huh.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1482875844787781634

I highly doubt they blow up FL-05 at the very least.

[Nyvin]

That really seems like red meat to throw to conservative voters.   It completely spits on the Fair Districts Amendment everywhere and most likely violates the VRA in regards to black voters as well.

Also I don't believe the Florida Governor holds veto power over the maps anyway.  

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1482881886179504136?s=20

Another example of the sloppiness below the topline. Another example of how this map isn't realistic, and designed to be passed. The goal is messaging and appearances, to what end beyond DeSantis's own ambition remains unknown,

[lfromnj]

That really seems like red meat to throw to conservative voters.   It completely spits on the Fair Districts Amendment everywhere and most likely violates the VRA in regards to black voters as well.

Also I don't believe the Florida Governor holds veto power over the maps anyway.  

He doesn't hold veto power over legislative. Iirc he does over congressional

[THG]

DeSantis has a lot of influence over the FL Legislature (I know people in the Florida SL and I know DeSantis).

That being said, the final map (while far more aggressive than the State Senate maps) won’t exactly be the DeSantis proposed map. I do expect the final map to possibly draw out FL-05 and have a similar partisan lean (18-19 Trump seats minimum), but it will shore up some R incumbents such as Salazar a bit more.