2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Zaybay]

My 18-10 Map:





24,21,27 are Hispanic VAP Majority. 22,23 are black VAP plurality (~45%)

16 is a Hispanic VRA at 49% Hispanic VAP. 20 is Hispanic Opportunity at 43.7%-43.6% white-hispanic VAP.

5 should keep Lawson decently happy, it is 45.6% White, 41.8% Black on VAP and a 44.5% Black Plurality on Total Population

Rs would be set to get 4 seats in the Miami-Palm Beach Area vs 3. 20, 28, 21 would be taken by existing incumbents and 27 is the "added district" and would elect a new R. The area would continue to have 5 democrat-occupied districts, though the 24th could flip in an R wave.

The other 5 Dems are Lawson, Crist, Castor, and the two Orlando-Area Sinks.

Stephanie Murphy is pretty dead, no matter where she would decide to run here. The new 7th is 59% Trump. Other options are better but not great - The 4th is Trump +7 and the 13th is Trump +5.

There is a half-hearted attempt to go after Kathy Castor in what I re-numbered as the 12th, but it is still Biden +1 and trending D so it probably holds for her.

This would obviously never pass the fair maps law

Far from clear the FLSC would care. It's 7 GOP judges, a majority of which were appointed by Scott or DeSantis. Probably they would do what DeSantis wants. The state GOP is very weak in its proposals of a status quo map.

We actually already know the answer to this. They do care. The whole reason the GOP is drawing rather status quo, fair-ish maps when they could easily be brutal is because of fear of the courts. They've been very vocal about how they don't want to get in trouble with them.

If it were really just as simple as "Oh they're all Scott and DeSantis appointees, of course they'd greenlight anything", then the GOP would just draw a gerrymander.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My 18-10 Map:





24,21,27 are Hispanic VAP Majority. 22,23 are black VAP plurality (~45%)

16 is a Hispanic VRA at 49% Hispanic VAP. 20 is Hispanic Opportunity at 43.7%-43.6% white-hispanic VAP.

5 should keep Lawson decently happy, it is 45.6% White, 41.8% Black on VAP and a 44.5% Black Plurality on Total Population

Rs would be set to get 4 seats in the Miami-Palm Beach Area vs 3. 20, 28, 21 would be taken by existing incumbents and 27 is the "added district" and would elect a new R. The area would continue to have 5 democrat-occupied districts, though the 24th could flip in an R wave.

The other 5 Dems are Lawson, Crist, Castor, and the two Orlando-Area Sinks.

Stephanie Murphy is pretty dead, no matter where she would decide to run here. The new 7th is 59% Trump. Other options are better but not great - The 4th is Trump +7 and the 13th is Trump +5.

There is a half-hearted attempt to go after Kathy Castor in what I re-numbered as the 12th, but it is still Biden +1 and trending D so it probably holds for her.

This would obviously never pass the fair maps law

Far from clear the FLSC would care. It's 7 GOP judges, a majority of which were appointed by Scott or DeSantis. Probably they would do what DeSantis wants. The state GOP is very weak in its proposals of a status quo map.

* or actually, some of the state GOP.

Apparently some of them have some guts and may actually try 18-10: https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/11/29/new-draft-redistricting-map-in-florida-cuts-up-murphys-seat-boosts-gop-1396060

[_.]

-SNIP-

Can you shuffle 24, 26, 27, 28 to make all of them Hispanic majority, while keeping similar partisan breakdown? Or even push 24 to be roughly even? I feel 4 Hispanic plus 2 black district are probably enough for VRA.

So I've done it. 4 majority-Hispanic seats by Voting-Age population, 3 of them having voted for Trump by double digits, and 2 majority-Black seats by Voting-Age population.

This is an insane map, but technically it slides because there's no doubt minorities are getting their political representation.

DRA's Minority Representation Index goes up to 81/100, while Proportionality increases to 23/100, Competitiveness is up to 24/100, and Compactness is up to 63/100. On the other hand, County Splitting drops to 11/100.

Link on Dave's Redistricting App

Byron Donalds will be able to move North out of his home in Naples, and will fully represent Lee County in this scenario.

Image Link

The biggest difference is that this map involves splitting Collier County, pairing the Northern portion (FL-20 on the map above) with Hendry County, Southwestern Broward (two majority-Hispanic areas), and then much of Hialeah and Northwest Dade (virtually unanimously Hispanic, very Republican). This makes a 58.9% Hispanic district by Voting-Age population that voted for Clinton by 3% and Trump 2020 by 10%. Represented by Diaz-Balart.

The Southern Part of Collier heads South into the Southern part of Dade and Monroe County (FL-21 on the map above), which usually would result in a Democratic district, however an arm into Tamiami and Westchester keeps it sufficiently Republican, outvoting Homestead. This district is 61.2% Hispanic by Voting-Age population, voted for Clinton by 5% and Trump 2020 by 10%. Represented by Gimenez.

Finally, this leaves enough room for a third Republican seat encompassing West Miami, Doral, The Hammocks, and a significant portion of Hialeah (FL-22 on the map above). 84.0% Hispanic by Voting-Age population. Voted for Clinton by 14% and Trump 2020 by 10%. Represented by Salazar.

The last Hispanic seat, holding Central Miami, then stretching up North into Miami Beach then the heavily Hispanic East Pines and West Hollywood in Broward County (FL-24 on the map above) would be solidly Democratic, but it still saw a significant swing in 2020 from Clinton+27% to Biden+14%. It's 53.2% Hispanic by Voting-Age population.

Then there are two seats that are just barely Black-majority by Voting-Age population (FL-23 and FL-25 on the map above).

[BoiseBoy]

New maps from senate committee, looks like they're gonna be pretty damn good maps when all is said and done. Nothing too crazy here:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1478901567470424067?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

There are four plans apparently. All pretty similar.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1478903980004679682?s=20

[Gass3268]

Interested to see the big differences between the Senate and the House.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm honestly really confused about what the GOP's goal is in Tampa. All 3 of those seats in all the maps went for Biden, probably by lean-likely margins meaning while they could clean-sweep Tampa in 2022, it offers a good chance Dems a good chance for 3 Tampa seats, and more often than not I'd expect Dems to hold at least 2 of the 3 seats. is it for competitiveness? Do they believe that they'll start outright winning Hilsboro County?

The only differences in the 2 maps appear to be whether 21 and 22 should be configured North-South or East-West or how 8, 10, and 7 should be configured in Downtown Orlando. The East-West config of 21 and 22 seems slightly better Rs as it'd make 22 probably only about Biden + 10. Seems like the difference in Orlando seat partisanship between the districts is negligible though 1 seems to try and push out 7 slightly more.

These maps seem pretty reasonable though. There are some small decisions made to benefit the GOP, most notably in Miami, but all things considered this is much better than many maps we've seen

[Roll Roons]

I'm honestly really confused about what the GOP's goal is in Tampa. All 3 of those seats in all the maps went for Biden, probably by lean-likely margins meaning while they could clean-sweep Tampa in 2022, it offers a good chance Dems a good chance for 3 Tampa seats, and more often than not I'd expect Dems to hold at least 2 of the 3 seats. is it for competitiveness? Do they believe that they'll start outright winning Hilsboro County?

Trying to avoid a lawsuit I guess? Hillsborough County's overall margin has been very static over the past four election cycles, even though the internal coalitions have changed a bit.

[lfromnj]

I'm honestly really confused about what the GOP's goal is in Tampa. All 3 of those seats in all the maps went for Biden, probably by lean-likely margins meaning while they could clean-sweep Tampa in 2022, it offers a good chance Dems a good chance for 3 Tampa seats, and more often than not I'd expect Dems to hold at least 2 of the 3 seats. is it for competitiveness? Do they believe that they'll start outright winning Hilsboro County?

Trying to avoid a lawsuit I guess? Hillsborough County's overall margin has been very static over the past four election cycles, even though the internal coalitions have changed a bit.

But it doesn't make sense. Even the old FL Supreme court would allow a Inner Ring seat and then a more suburban seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm honestly really confused about what the GOP's goal is in Tampa. All 3 of those seats in all the maps went for Biden, probably by lean-likely margins meaning while they could clean-sweep Tampa in 2022, it offers a good chance Dems a good chance for 3 Tampa seats, and more often than not I'd expect Dems to hold at least 2 of the 3 seats. is it for competitiveness? Do they believe that they'll start outright winning Hilsboro County?

Trying to avoid a lawsuit I guess? Hillsborough County's overall margin has been very static over the past four election cycles, even though the internal coalitions have changed a bit.

But it doesn't make sense. Even the old FL Supreme court would allow a Inner Ring seat and then a more suburban seat.

Maybe it's for the point of competitiveness? A D-leaning seat in Orlando or Jacksonville would likely have more favorable Dem trends for the decade whereas most of Tampa metro has been pretty neutral.

[lfromnj]

I'm honestly really confused about what the GOP's goal is in Tampa. All 3 of those seats in all the maps went for Biden, probably by lean-likely margins meaning while they could clean-sweep Tampa in 2022, it offers a good chance Dems a good chance for 3 Tampa seats, and more often than not I'd expect Dems to hold at least 2 of the 3 seats. is it for competitiveness? Do they believe that they'll start outright winning Hilsboro County?

Trying to avoid a lawsuit I guess? Hillsborough County's overall margin has been very static over the past four election cycles, even though the internal coalitions have changed a bit.

But it doesn't make sense. Even the old FL Supreme court would allow a Inner Ring seat and then a more suburban seat.

Maybe it's for the point of competitiveness? A D-leaning seat in Orlando or Jacksonville would likely have more favorable Dem trends for the decade whereas most of Tampa metro has been pretty neutral.

But there's no requirements for exact partisan fairness . Overall FL's requirements are closest to CA's although county lines matter more. The FL supreme court made the GOP redraw SD01 and SD02 in the panhandle. The GOP preferred one inland and one beach seat. No partisan difference as both are super Safe R.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting that all 3 Miami Cuban seats are Clinton - Trump

[BoiseBoy]

Clinton won 15/28 seats under these proposals, Biden won 12 (easy to guess which three flipped).
https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1478912731550044169?s=20

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm honestly really confused about what the GOP's goal is in Tampa. All 3 of those seats in all the maps went for Biden, probably by lean-likely margins meaning while they could clean-sweep Tampa in 2022, it offers a good chance Dems a good chance for 3 Tampa seats, and more often than not I'd expect Dems to hold at least 2 of the 3 seats. is it for competitiveness? Do they believe that they'll start outright winning Hilsboro County?

Trying to avoid a lawsuit I guess? Hillsborough County's overall margin has been very static over the past four election cycles, even though the internal coalitions have changed a bit.

But it doesn't make sense. Even the old FL Supreme court would allow a Inner Ring seat and then a more suburban seat.

Maybe it's for the point of competitiveness? A D-leaning seat in Orlando or Jacksonville would likely have more favorable Dem trends for the decade whereas most of Tampa metro has been pretty neutral.

But there's no requirements for exact partisan fairness . Overall FL's requirements are closest to CA's although county lines matter more. The FL supreme court made the GOP redraw SD01 and SD02 in the panhandle. The GOP preferred one inland and one beach seat. No partisan difference as both are super Safe R.

Ye that’s what gets sticky, it says a map can’t unduly favour one party but at the same time doesn’t offer any objective metrics. Their more take approach is probably a combination of not wanting to risk the map getting overturned as well as satisfying R incumbents, many of who may be unwilling to take in parts of blue cities and want to keep ultra-safe districts

[lfromnj]

I'm honestly really confused about what the GOP's goal is in Tampa. All 3 of those seats in all the maps went for Biden, probably by lean-likely margins meaning while they could clean-sweep Tampa in 2022, it offers a good chance Dems a good chance for 3 Tampa seats, and more often than not I'd expect Dems to hold at least 2 of the 3 seats. is it for competitiveness? Do they believe that they'll start outright winning Hilsboro County?

Trying to avoid a lawsuit I guess? Hillsborough County's overall margin has been very static over the past four election cycles, even though the internal coalitions have changed a bit.

But it doesn't make sense. Even the old FL Supreme court would allow a Inner Ring seat and then a more suburban seat.

Maybe it's for the point of competitiveness? A D-leaning seat in Orlando or Jacksonville would likely have more favorable Dem trends for the decade whereas most of Tampa metro has been pretty neutral.

But there's no requirements for exact partisan fairness . Overall FL's requirements are closest to CA's although county lines matter more. The FL supreme court made the GOP redraw SD01 and SD02 in the panhandle. The GOP preferred one inland and one beach seat. No partisan difference as both are super Safe R.

Ye that’s what gets sticky, it says a map can’t unduly favour one party but at the same time doesn’t offer any objective metrics. Their more take approach is probably a combination of not wanting to risk the map getting overturned as well as satisfying R incumbents, many of who may be unwilling to take in parts of blue cities and want to keep ultra-safe districts

https://mobile.twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1478914664499089408

The map is literally majority Clinton though. There's no way that somehow going 1 r 1 d in Tampa would cause even a Dem court to strike it down. Again this isn't a question of why aren't they gerrymandering but why are they drawing a Dem friendly configuration in Tampa.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The last congressional map the state house put out was slightly more aggressive. Well see if that sticks

[Oryxslayer]

I mean these should be the same four maps the senate submitted previously, just re-upped for the new year.

The real confusing bit about the Tampa stuff is that Gus Bilirakis lives in Palm Harbor in North Pinellas, and he's getting placed in the St. Pete seat no matter the map. Rubio only wins the 14th, the middle of the three seats, during his 2016 sweep (by FL standards).

If they didn't care about Gus I figured they would clean up the region from by removing the entirety of St. Pete - not just the AA areas - and maybe a few neighboring towns from Pinellas and connecting it with South Tampa and the West Suburbs via the bridges. this of course would be different from every other district that tries the crossing, in that it uses road, not water, connections and stays in the west of the metro and doesn't snake along the east shore of the bay. Allows them to almost entirely nest the new Pinellas seat in the county which would favor the GOP, and the crossing West Tampa seat would favor the Dems. The added bonus of this would allow the East Tampa seat to be drawn as a CVAP minority coalition seat, to further insulate then from the voting rights suit the legislature desires to avoid. As is the dispersion of the minority population benefits the Dems, but I'm not sure the most diverse 15th could be fully classified as an access seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone else feel like the GOP will pull a last minute gotcha and like completely reconfigure Tampa? This still doesn’t make sense why they’d draw 3 Dem leaning seats unless they’re really cocky they can win all 3. There’s no real VRA or COI reason for this config, infact I’d argue it’s not great from either standpoint as it cracks minorities in Tampa, isnt based on any precedent, and isn’t really an incumbent thing since as the poster above pointed out you can make a Pinellas seat R-Leaning without touching any other R seats

This is the FL GOP, they ain’t stupid and I have a hard time seeing them just throw away 1-2 possible seats like that

One possibility is that it’s just a placeholder config for now; they drew giant rectangles because they weren’t sure what to do with Tampa yet and they plan on going through later and drawing a more favorable config

[lfromnj]

Anyone else feel like the GOP will pull a last minute gotcha and like completely reconfigure Tampa? This still doesn’t make sense why they’d draw 3 Dem leaning seats unless they’re really cocky they can win all 3. There’s no real VRA or COI reason for this config, infact I’d argue it’s not great from either standpoint as it cracks minorities in Tampa, isnt based on any precedent, and isn’t really an incumbent thing since as the poster above pointed out you can make a Pinellas seat R-Leaning without touching any other R seats

This is the FL GOP, they ain’t stupid and I have a hard time seeing them just throw away 1-2 possible seats like that

One possibility is that it’s just a placeholder config for now; they drew giant rectangles because they weren’t sure what to do with Tampa yet and they plan on going through later and drawing a more favorable config

Yeah basically the only good thing about the Tampa configuration is that they are very compact.  Pretty similar to the AZ grid maps.

[It’s so Joever]

Plot twist: The FL GOP got frustrated with the stupid Hillsborough precincts and just gave up.

[Gass3268]

Anyone else feel like the GOP will pull a last minute gotcha and like completely reconfigure Tampa? This still doesn’t make sense why they’d draw 3 Dem leaning seats unless they’re really cocky they can win all 3. There’s no real VRA or COI reason for this config, infact I’d argue it’s not great from either standpoint as it cracks minorities in Tampa, isnt based on any precedent, and isn’t really an incumbent thing since as the poster above pointed out you can make a Pinellas seat R-Leaning without touching any other R seats

This is the FL GOP, they ain’t stupid and I have a hard time seeing them just throw away 1-2 possible seats like that

One possibility is that it’s just a placeholder config for now; they drew giant rectangles because they weren’t sure what to do with Tampa yet and they plan on going through later and drawing a more favorable config

There seems to be a fundamental difference of opinion between the Florida Senate and the Florida House on what to do with redistricting. It will be interesting to see who wins out.

[GALeftist]

Anyone else feel like the GOP will pull a last minute gotcha and like completely reconfigure Tampa? This still doesn’t make sense why they’d draw 3 Dem leaning seats unless they’re really cocky they can win all 3. There’s no real VRA or COI reason for this config, infact I’d argue it’s not great from either standpoint as it cracks minorities in Tampa, isnt based on any precedent, and isn’t really an incumbent thing since as the poster above pointed out you can make a Pinellas seat R-Leaning without touching any other R seats

This is the FL GOP, they ain’t stupid and I have a hard time seeing them just throw away 1-2 possible seats like that

One possibility is that it’s just a placeholder config for now; they drew giant rectangles because they weren’t sure what to do with Tampa yet and they plan on going through later and drawing a more favorable config

There seems to be a fundamental difference of opinion between the Florida Senate and the Florida House on what to do with redistricting. It will be interesting to see who wins out.

Actually one of the drafts we've seen from the House doesn't really look that bad. It shores up Gimenez and Salazar about as much as the Senate does and it doesn't axe Murphy's seat or even really make it redder. It does change the configuration in Tampa to be more R favorable and limit Ds to two seats but even then it doesn't axe Crist's seat or anything. Of course, there's also Sabatini's map which axes Murphy's seat, but everyone hates him so I'm hopeful they won't go with his map. (Plus, his map makes the new seat in Tampa a little tenuous as well.)

Unrelated question: how Hispanic are you allowed to make the Hialeah seat without running afoul of the VRA? Trying to draw a fair map of Florida.

[Oryxslayer]

Unrelated question: how Hispanic are you allowed to make the Hialeah seat without running afoul of the VRA? Trying to draw a fair map of Florida.

As high as you want as long as the other two/three Hispanic seats have comparably similar HVAP/HCVAP. The issue here is not adequate seats - geography forces them to be majority Hispanic - but equal opportunity in every one.

Say you have two neighboring Black belt seats. One is >80% AA and safe, one is 53% and marginal. That would seen as dilution and a point of attack for civil rights groups since you could have two seats over 65% and safe.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Unrelated question: how Hispanic are you allowed to make the Hialeah seat without running afoul of the VRA? Trying to draw a fair map of Florida.

As high as you want as long as the other two/three Hispanic seats have comparably similar HVAP/HCVAP. The issue here is not adequate seats - geography forces them to be majority Hispanic - but equal opportunity in every one.

Say you have two neighboring Black belt seats. One is >80% AA and safe, one is 53% and marginal. That would seen as dilution and a point of attack for civil rights groups since you could have two seats over 65% and safe.

Isn't there also an upper limit where any percentage can be considered a pack?

[Oryxslayer]

Unrelated question: how Hispanic are you allowed to make the Hialeah seat without running afoul of the VRA? Trying to draw a fair map of Florida.

As high as you want as long as the other two/three Hispanic seats have comparably similar HVAP/HCVAP. The issue here is not adequate seats - geography forces them to be majority Hispanic - but equal opportunity in every one.

Say you have two neighboring Black belt seats. One is >80% AA and safe, one is 53% and marginal. That would seen as dilution and a point of attack for civil rights groups since you could have two seats over 65% and safe.

Isn't there also an upper limit where any percentage can be considered a pack?

I mean sure, say you have three seats >75% Hispanic. That can be classified as a pack if there is the potential for a fourth Hispanic seat to be drawn by taking population from the other three. If however three are only possible, because of geography, voter concentration, population numbers, or other statistics - then you should be more concerned about equity of VAP. If you are drawing 2 Hispanic seats with the third as a White or coalition seat, then that would also make the other two classify as packs since a third is possible but not drawn.

To this end, I'm not sure if you can get a fifth district into M-D to unpack the Hispanic seats which already have a high HVAP. This was almost guaranteed if Florida got a 29th seat, but with 28 you would probably have to do weird stuff with DWS's seat or fajita strip the Naples region even more - possible but not practical.