2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Brittain33]

Perhaps they think even with a Pub Supreme Court, they understand what "unduly favor" means

Stop trying to make fetch happen, Torie

I am too obtuse, or clueless, or senile, or un-hip, to understand what "fetch" means here in context. You can either enlighten me here, PM more, or ignore. No problem. You have a point about the the verb "stop" but that is for another day. It was from anyone but a very few, I would not respond to the the verb "stop."  I will "stop" soon enough. Patience.

It's a quote from Mean Girls, which is a movie I'm too old to know memes from, so there wouldn't be much hope for you. Here's a link.

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/stop-trying-to-make-fetch-happen

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think they leave Murphy alone and make Crist's a Trump district

[_.]

Annual Population Growth Rate Map of Florida over the 2010s by House District

Image Link

TOP TEN

+4.17% ANNUAL - District 44 - SW Orange County
+4.09% ANNUAL - District 57 - SE Hillsborough County
+4.01% ANNUAL - District 17 - Northern St. John's County
+3.38% ANNUAL - District 73 - Western Manatee County
+3.23% ANNUAL - District 32 - Southern Lake County
+3.18% ANNUAL - District 42 - SE Osceola County + SE Polk County
+3.08% ANNUAL - District 50 - Eastern Orange County + Northern Brevard County
+3.03% ANNUAL - District 43 - Central Osceola County (Kissimmee)
+2.96% ANNUAL - District 39 - Northern Polk County + Western Osceola County
+2.89% ANNUAL - District 41 - Central Polk County

TWO SHRINKING DISTRICTS

-0.17% ANNUAL - District 7 - Big Bend Region
-0.11% ANNUAL - District 111 - Southern Hialeah + NW Miami


Some Cuban Seats about to get chopped!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1458549388599611395?s=20

[Torie]

Here is an alternative iteration of the Tampa Bay area that should fly with the court on the grounds that it avoids chopping Tampa and bifurcating the black hoods in the city. It does move FL-13 a PVI point to the Dems however, back to where it is now, so the map is not a Pub free lunch.

[Devils30]

Despite what was done to Crist's district, it's hard to see Dems not voting for these maps if they come up. It's the best they can realistically expect and has the capability of being 15-13 D in a 2018 type year.

This one seems like a calculated gamble by the FL GOP that Dems will move in the direction of becoming an AOC/identity obsessed party and lose Hispanic and Jewish voters. Note the Tampa area 3 Biden seats could all become R with additional GOP gains with minorities and WWC voters. The new 22nd in eastern Broward/Boca/Delray is a heavily Jewish area and could swing R if Dems continue in the AOC/Corbyn direction. This is a big if and must involve the Rs moving on from Trump (but not so much his policies). Murphy probably has GOP allies in the legislature uninterested in helping Sabatini join Boebert and MTG in Congress. Still, the 21-7 upside for the GOP comes with enormous risk and Dems get the economy strong in 2024, mild reversion with Dade Hispanics, it could easily become a 14-14 map.

I do give the Florida GOP credit if it passes, it is definitely something different than other Republican maps and I don't doubt the political acumen of the strongest state party in the country.

[Skill and Chance]

IDK what to make of this... R's in OH and NC swinging for the fences, but very reserved maps in Florida, Texas, and probably Georgia.

[Brittain33]

IDK what to make of this... R's in OH and NC swinging for the fences, but very reserved maps in Florida, Texas, and probably Georgia.

I would not describe the maps in Texas as "very reserved", they needed to draw ugly gerrymanders and concede Dem seats just to maintain their overstretched majority. Texas left nothing on the table. Florida, and if the early drafts hold, Georgia, may leave some potential gains on the table in favor of a reasonable map.  

[Oryxslayer]

Despite what was done to Crist's district, it's hard to see Dems not voting for these maps if they come up. It's the best they can realistically expect and has the capability of being 15-13 D in a 2018 type year.

This one seems like a calculated gamble by the FL GOP that Dems will move in the direction of becoming an AOC/identity obsessed party and lose Hispanic and Jewish voters. Note the Tampa area 3 Biden seats could all become R with additional GOP gains with minorities and WWC voters. The new 22nd in eastern Broward/Boca/Delray is a heavily Jewish area and could swing R if Dems continue in the AOC/Corbyn direction. This is a big if and must involve the Rs moving on from Trump (but not so much his policies). Murphy probably has GOP allies in the legislature uninterested in helping Sabatini join Boebert and MTG in Congress. Still, the 21-7 upside for the GOP comes with enormous risk and Dems get the economy strong in 2024, mild reversion with Dade Hispanics, it could easily become a 14-14 map.

I do give the Florida GOP credit if it passes, it is definitely something different than other Republican maps and I don't doubt the political acumen of the strongest state party in the country.

Your thinking too hard. We have the mapper 'on record' basically saying he doesn't want any lawsuits or litigation, which means following the constitutions anti-gerrymandering laws as they were written rather than as one desires AND provide adequate access for minorities. With those considerations, ones can only Gerry so much yet this map attempts such things.

If they opt for the coastal 21/22 rather than the N/S it would simply be because the coast actually has entrenched GOP areas and they are gerrying two safe D seats into a Safe D and a potentially competitive one. The GOP has long held some coastal state house seats in this area. This isn't some new invention - the 2010 map did it. Which is why it may not occur: coastal-inland was thrown out in favor of north-south. Same with Tampa - more a product or nesting and a desire to try to make the seats similar to the successfully gerryed state Senate lines than any pecularities. You can see very similar behavior on the state Senate map, which is more status-quo/incumbent protection with gerrymandering reserved for those areas like Gainesville that are safe from a lawsuit and clearly would remove a competitive seat from the board in favor of the GOP.

IDK what to make of this... R's in OH and NC swinging for the fences, but very reserved maps in Florida, Texas, and probably Georgia.

Which ofc is weird, but reflects the political situation in their states. The GOP fears the states with established or growing Dem parties, especially when said parties are dependent upon minority voters and therefore have most of their seats situationally untouchable by litigation. Retention not expansion is the goal. Meanwhile in the other states on your list the Dems have been out of power for a long time, and recently were (relatively) never close to really seizing it. The mappers are therefore confident, even though institutional strength means the Dems are in a stronger position in both states thanks to their courts than in TX or FL. Same thing will likely happen in KS.

[Skill and Chance]

Despite what was done to Crist's district, it's hard to see Dems not voting for these maps if they come up. It's the best they can realistically expect and has the capability of being 15-13 D in a 2018 type year.

This one seems like a calculated gamble by the FL GOP that Dems will move in the direction of becoming an AOC/identity obsessed party and lose Hispanic and Jewish voters. Note the Tampa area 3 Biden seats could all become R with additional GOP gains with minorities and WWC voters. The new 22nd in eastern Broward/Boca/Delray is a heavily Jewish area and could swing R if Dems continue in the AOC/Corbyn direction. This is a big if and must involve the Rs moving on from Trump (but not so much his policies). Murphy probably has GOP allies in the legislature uninterested in helping Sabatini join Boebert and MTG in Congress. Still, the 21-7 upside for the GOP comes with enormous risk and Dems get the economy strong in 2024, mild reversion with Dade Hispanics, it could easily become a 14-14 map.

I do give the Florida GOP credit if it passes, it is definitely something different than other Republican maps and I don't doubt the political acumen of the strongest state party in the country.

Your thinking too hard. We have the mapper 'on record' basically saying he doesn't want any lawsuits or litigation, which means following the constitutions anti-gerrymandering laws as they were written rather than as one desires AND provide adequate access for minorities. With those considerations, ones can only Gerry so much yet this map attempts such things.

If they opt for the coastal 21/22 rather than the N/S it would simply be because the coast actually has entrenched GOP areas and they are gerrying two safe D seats into a Safe D and a potentially competitive one. The GOP has long held some coastal state house seats in this area. This isn't some new invention - the 2010 map did it. Which is why it may not occur: coastal-inland was thrown out in favor of north-south. Same with Tampa - more a product or nesting and a desire to try to make the seats similar to the successfully gerryed state Senate lines than any pecularities. You can see very similar behavior on the state Senate map, which is more status-quo/incumbent protection with gerrymandering reserved for those areas like Gainesville that are safe from a lawsuit and clearly would remove a competitive seat from the board in favor of the GOP.

IDK what to make of this... R's in OH and NC swinging for the fences, but very reserved maps in Florida, Texas, and probably Georgia.

Which ofc is weird, but reflects the political situation in their states. The GOP fears the states with established or growing Dem parties, especially when said parties are dependent upon minority voters and therefore have most of their seats situationally untouchable by litigation. Retention not expansion is the goal. Meanwhile in the other states on your list the Dems have been out of power for a long time, and recently were (relatively) never close to really seizing it. The mappers are therefore confident, even though institutional strength means the Dems are in a stronger position in both states thanks to their courts than in TX or FL. Same thing will likely happen in KS.

Ehhh... I think the GOP has a lot more to worry about in NC now than in FL or even TX given how much the Hispanic vote shifted right in 2020 and how aggressive the Biden admin has been on environmental issues.

OH and GA R's both seem to be reading the landscape well.  NV and NM D's look overconfident.    It sounds farfetched, but I also think the KS GOP should be more worried.  There's a long way to go, but KS actually had a bigger swing toward Biden than GA. 

[Devils30]

Despite what was done to Crist's district, it's hard to see Dems not voting for these maps if they come up. It's the best they can realistically expect and has the capability of being 15-13 D in a 2018 type year.

This one seems like a calculated gamble by the FL GOP that Dems will move in the direction of becoming an AOC/identity obsessed party and lose Hispanic and Jewish voters. Note the Tampa area 3 Biden seats could all become R with additional GOP gains with minorities and WWC voters. The new 22nd in eastern Broward/Boca/Delray is a heavily Jewish area and could swing R if Dems continue in the AOC/Corbyn direction. This is a big if and must involve the Rs moving on from Trump (but not so much his policies). Murphy probably has GOP allies in the legislature uninterested in helping Sabatini join Boebert and MTG in Congress. Still, the 21-7 upside for the GOP comes with enormous risk and Dems get the economy strong in 2024, mild reversion with Dade Hispanics, it could easily become a 14-14 map.

I do give the Florida GOP credit if it passes, it is definitely something different than other Republican maps and I don't doubt the political acumen of the strongest state party in the country.

Your thinking too hard. We have the mapper 'on record' basically saying he doesn't want any lawsuits or litigation, which means following the constitutions anti-gerrymandering laws as they were written rather than as one desires AND provide adequate access for minorities. With those considerations, ones can only Gerry so much yet this map attempts such things.

If they opt for the coastal 21/22 rather than the N/S it would simply be because the coast actually has entrenched GOP areas and they are gerrying two safe D seats into a Safe D and a potentially competitive one. The GOP has long held some coastal state house seats in this area. This isn't some new invention - the 2010 map did it. Which is why it may not occur: coastal-inland was thrown out in favor of north-south. Same with Tampa - more a product or nesting and a desire to try to make the seats similar to the successfully gerryed state Senate lines than any pecularities. You can see very similar behavior on the state Senate map, which is more status-quo/incumbent protection with gerrymandering reserved for those areas like Gainesville that are safe from a lawsuit and clearly would remove a competitive seat from the board in favor of the GOP.

IDK what to make of this... R's in OH and NC swinging for the fences, but very reserved maps in Florida, Texas, and probably Georgia.

Which ofc is weird, but reflects the political situation in their states. The GOP fears the states with established or growing Dem parties, especially when said parties are dependent upon minority voters and therefore have most of their seats situationally untouchable by litigation. Retention not expansion is the goal. Meanwhile in the other states on your list the Dems have been out of power for a long time, and recently were (relatively) never close to really seizing it. The mappers are therefore confident, even though institutional strength means the Dems are in a stronger position in both states thanks to their courts than in TX or FL. Same thing will likely happen in KS.

Ehhh... I think the GOP has a lot more to worry about in NC now than in FL or even TX given how much the Hispanic vote shifted right in 2020 and how aggressive the Biden admin has been on environmental issues.

OH and GA R's both seem to be reading the landscape well.  NV and NM D's look overconfident.    It sounds farfetched, but I also think the KS GOP should be more worried.  There's a long way to go, but KS actually had a bigger swing toward Biden than GA.  

The new FL Supreme Court is majority conservative. That’s why I am surprised the Rs aren’t trying for a bigger gain. That said, perhaps the GOP is concerned that these justices are strict textualists and might be sympathetic to the Dems argument as the law states districts can’t favor one party.

Trump Rs don’t care about theories of statutory interpretation but a lot of constitutional conservatives take reading the statute and directly applying its words very seriously.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Despite what was done to Crist's district, it's hard to see Dems not voting for these maps if they come up. It's the best they can realistically expect and has the capability of being 15-13 D in a 2018 type year.

This one seems like a calculated gamble by the FL GOP that Dems will move in the direction of becoming an AOC/identity obsessed party and lose Hispanic and Jewish voters. Note the Tampa area 3 Biden seats could all become R with additional GOP gains with minorities and WWC voters. The new 22nd in eastern Broward/Boca/Delray is a heavily Jewish area and could swing R if Dems continue in the AOC/Corbyn direction. This is a big if and must involve the Rs moving on from Trump (but not so much his policies). Murphy probably has GOP allies in the legislature uninterested in helping Sabatini join Boebert and MTG in Congress. Still, the 21-7 upside for the GOP comes with enormous risk and Dems get the economy strong in 2024, mild reversion with Dade Hispanics, it could easily become a 14-14 map.

I do give the Florida GOP credit if it passes, it is definitely something different than other Republican maps and I don't doubt the political acumen of the strongest state party in the country.

Your thinking too hard. We have the mapper 'on record' basically saying he doesn't want any lawsuits or litigation, which means following the constitutions anti-gerrymandering laws as they were written rather than as one desires AND provide adequate access for minorities. With those considerations, ones can only Gerry so much yet this map attempts such things.

If they opt for the coastal 21/22 rather than the N/S it would simply be because the coast actually has entrenched GOP areas and they are gerrying two safe D seats into a Safe D and a potentially competitive one. The GOP has long held some coastal state house seats in this area. This isn't some new invention - the 2010 map did it. Which is why it may not occur: coastal-inland was thrown out in favor of north-south. Same with Tampa - more a product or nesting and a desire to try to make the seats similar to the successfully gerryed state Senate lines than any pecularities. You can see very similar behavior on the state Senate map, which is more status-quo/incumbent protection with gerrymandering reserved for those areas like Gainesville that are safe from a lawsuit and clearly would remove a competitive seat from the board in favor of the GOP.

IDK what to make of this... R's in OH and NC swinging for the fences, but very reserved maps in Florida, Texas, and probably Georgia.

Which ofc is weird, but reflects the political situation in their states. The GOP fears the states with established or growing Dem parties, especially when said parties are dependent upon minority voters and therefore have most of their seats situationally untouchable by litigation. Retention not expansion is the goal. Meanwhile in the other states on your list the Dems have been out of power for a long time, and recently were (relatively) never close to really seizing it. The mappers are therefore confident, even though institutional strength means the Dems are in a stronger position in both states thanks to their courts than in TX or FL. Same thing will likely happen in KS.

Ehhh... I think the GOP has a lot more to worry about in NC now than in FL or even TX given how much the Hispanic vote shifted right in 2020 and how aggressive the Biden admin has been on environmental issues.

OH and GA R's both seem to be reading the landscape well.  NV and NM D's look overconfident.    It sounds farfetched, but I also think the KS GOP should be more worried.  There's a long way to go, but KS actually had a bigger swing toward Biden than GA.  

The new FL Supreme Court is majority conservative. That’s why I am surprised the Rs aren’t trying for a bigger gain. That said, perhaps the GOP is concerned that these justices are strict textualists and might be sympathetic to the Dems argument as the law states districts can’t favor one party.

Trump Rs don’t care about theories of statutory interpretation but a lot of constitutional conservatives take reading the statute and directly applying its words very seriously.

Even if the GOP is assuming there's a majority strict-textualists, it does seem like you'd be able to easily go at least a little further. One could make a very strong argument that just making FL-14 more like it currently is is better in terms of COI because it keeps minorities together in a district where the can elect a canidate of choice, thereby making it the only blue district in Hillsboro County.

Even FL-7 you could at least make a bit weaker without doing anything too egregious, but maybe the GOP sees the writing on the wall in Orlando.

What's so weird about this map is you can tell there was at least a little bit of gerrymandering going on in Miami-Dade to shore up FL-27 and get a 22nd that could be winnable for the GOP in the right year, but the rest of the map really does look like it was drawn by a commission.

[_.]

Four new plans by The Florida Senate Committee on Reapportionment dropped November 24

S000C8018
S000C8020
S000C8022
S000C8024

The initial conflict between whether to align FL-21 and FL-22 North to South or West to East remains, as does the Alachua County decision. However, a number of other minor changes have been made common to all these maps. None in Miami-Dade, Hillsborough, or Duval Counties though.

They all are counterparts of the original four maps, except with the new changes (8002 with 8018, 8004 with 8020, etc.)


Here are DRA links to the initial four plans (courtesy of "michael.mcdonald"):

S000C8002 (Alachua split; FL-21 and FL-22 East / West)
S000C8004 (Alachua whole; FL-21 and FL-22 North / South)
S000C8006 (Alachua split; FL-21 and FL-22 North / South)
S000C8008 (Alachua whole; FL-21 and FL-22 East / West)

[Tekken_Guy]

Four new plans by The Florida Senate Committee on Reapportionment dropped November 24

S000C8018
S000C8020
S000C8022
S000C8024

The initial conflict between whether to align FL-21 and FL-22 North to South or West to East remains, as does the Alachua County decision. However, a number of other minor changes have been made common to all these maps. None in Miami-Dade, Hillsborough, or Duval Counties though.

They all are counterparts of the original four maps, except with the new changes (8002 with 8018, 8004 with 8020, etc.)


Here are DRA links to the initial four plans (courtesy of "michael.mcdonald"):

S000C8002 (Alachua split; FL-21 and FL-22 East / West)
S000C8004 (Alachua whole; FL-21 and FL-22 North / South)
S000C8006 (Alachua split; FL-21 and FL-22 North / South)
S000C8008 (Alachua whole; FL-21 and FL-22 East / West)

That FL-22 in the East-West divide was only Biden+9. I wonder if it will be competitive in 2022?

[_.]

-SNIP-

That FL-22 in the East-West divide was only Biden+9. I wonder if it will be competitive in 2022?

On the surface, it may look as if that'd be the case, and it possibly will be in the upcoming gubernatorial and senatorial races. It's a majority-White, suburban, affluent coastal district with a notably elderly population (only 14.8% youth, compared to 19.5% statewide and 22.1% nationwide) and a very large Jewish contingent (holding the city of Boca Raton). It swung significantly towards the right between the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential elections, going from Clinton+11.4 to Biden+9.8, and Youngkin and Ciattarelli's messages back earlier this month resonated very hard with this kind of district.

However, this ignores the presence of the current Democratic incumbent, Ted Deutch, a Jewish man from Boca Raton who is very pro-Israel and is very in-tune with his area, significantly outperforming both Clinton (by 2.0%) and Biden (by 2.4%). Perhaps a DSA-type candidate could make things interesting, but as long as Deutch keeps on running, I think the Democrats would keep the seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

-SNIP-

That FL-22 in the East-West divide was only Biden+9. I wonder if it will be competitive in 2022?

On the surface, it may look as if that'd be the case, and it possibly will be in the upcoming gubernatorial and senatorial races. It's a majority-White, suburban, affluent coastal district with a notably elderly population (only 14.8% youth, compared to 19.5% statewide and 22.1% nationwide) and a very large Jewish contingent (holding the city of Boca Raton). It swung significantly towards the right between the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential elections, going from Clinton+11.4 to Biden+9.8, and Youngkin and Ciattarelli's messages back earlier this month resonated very hard with this kind of district.

However, this ignores the presence of the current Democratic incumbent, Ted Deutch, a Jewish man from Boca Raton who is very pro-Israel and is very in-tune with his area, significantly outperforming both Clinton (by 2.0%) and Biden (by 2.4%). Perhaps a DSA-type candidate could make things interesting, but as long as Deutch keeps on running, I think the Democrats would keep the seat.

It's not hard to see Rubio or DeSantis win the district next year, especially Rubio. Their coattails could pull a candidate to victory over the finish line. Though it probably flips back D in 2024.

[_.]

-SNIP-

That FL-22 in the East-West divide was only Biden+9. I wonder if it will be competitive in 2022?

On the surface, it may look as if that'd be the case, and it possibly will be in the upcoming gubernatorial and senatorial races. It's a majority-White, suburban, affluent coastal district with a notably elderly population (only 14.8% youth, compared to 19.5% statewide and 22.1% nationwide) and a very large Jewish contingent (holding the city of Boca Raton). It swung significantly towards the right between the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential elections, going from Clinton+11.4 to Biden+9.8, and Youngkin and Ciattarelli's messages back earlier this month resonated very hard with this kind of district.

However, this ignores the presence of the current Democratic incumbent, Ted Deutch, a Jewish man from Boca Raton who is very pro-Israel and is very in-tune with his area, significantly outperforming both Clinton (by 2.0%) and Biden (by 2.4%). Perhaps a DSA-type candidate could make things interesting, but as long as Deutch keeps on running, I think the Democrats would keep the seat.

It's not hard to see Rubio or DeSantis win the district next year, especially Rubio. Their coattails could pull a candidate to victory over the finish line. Though it probably flips back D in 2024.

Interesting to know is that Rubio only lost this district by 6.5% in 2016 while Trump 2016 lost it by 11.4% (and DeSantis two years later by 13.3%).

Personally, I think that Rubio's strength is definitely underrated in suburban White areas of Florida (he even won Hillsborough County in 2016!). I wouldn't go so far as to say their coattails would flip it, though, unless the Republicans have an equally strong challenger to the popular incumbent Deutch.

And this, of course, is all based on the presumption that DeSantis and Rubio would be able to win the district, which would take immensely unlikely double-digit victories statewide. If DeSantis and Rubio are winning this district at all, the Republicans already have 54 senate seats and upwards of 240 House seats.

[Tekken_Guy]

-SNIP-

That FL-22 in the East-West divide was only Biden+9. I wonder if it will be competitive in 2022?

On the surface, it may look as if that'd be the case, and it possibly will be in the upcoming gubernatorial and senatorial races. It's a majority-White, suburban, affluent coastal district with a notably elderly population (only 14.8% youth, compared to 19.5% statewide and 22.1% nationwide) and a very large Jewish contingent (holding the city of Boca Raton). It swung significantly towards the right between the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential elections, going from Clinton+11.4 to Biden+9.8, and Youngkin and Ciattarelli's messages back earlier this month resonated very hard with this kind of district.

However, this ignores the presence of the current Democratic incumbent, Ted Deutch, a Jewish man from Boca Raton who is very pro-Israel and is very in-tune with his area, significantly outperforming both Clinton (by 2.0%) and Biden (by 2.4%). Perhaps a DSA-type candidate could make things interesting, but as long as Deutch keeps on running, I think the Democrats would keep the seat.

It's not hard to see Rubio or DeSantis win the district next year, especially Rubio. Their coattails could pull a candidate to victory over the finish line. Though it probably flips back D in 2024.

Interesting to know is that Rubio only lost this district by 6.5% in 2016 while Trump 2016 lost it by 11.4% (and DeSantis two years later by 13.3%).

Personally, I think that Rubio's strength is definitely underrated in suburban White areas of Florida (he even won Hillsborough County in 2016!). I wouldn't go so far as to say their coattails would flip it, though, unless the Republicans have an equally strong challenger to the popular incumbent Deutch.

And this, of course, is all based on the presumption that DeSantis and Rubio would be able to win the district, which would take immensely unlikely double-digit victories statewide. If DeSantis and Rubio are winning this district at all, the Republicans already have 54 senate seats and upwards of 240 House seats.

There are two GOP state reps in the area, Chip LaMarca and Mike Caruso, who won seats by double digits that Biden and Trump virtually tied in.

[_.]

-SNIP-

That FL-22 in the East-West divide was only Biden+9. I wonder if it will be competitive in 2022?

On the surface, it may look as if that'd be the case, and it possibly will be in the upcoming gubernatorial and senatorial races. It's a majority-White, suburban, affluent coastal district with a notably elderly population (only 14.8% youth, compared to 19.5% statewide and 22.1% nationwide) and a very large Jewish contingent (holding the city of Boca Raton). It swung significantly towards the right between the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential elections, going from Clinton+11.4 to Biden+9.8, and Youngkin and Ciattarelli's messages back earlier this month resonated very hard with this kind of district.

However, this ignores the presence of the current Democratic incumbent, Ted Deutch, a Jewish man from Boca Raton who is very pro-Israel and is very in-tune with his area, significantly outperforming both Clinton (by 2.0%) and Biden (by 2.4%). Perhaps a DSA-type candidate could make things interesting, but as long as Deutch keeps on running, I think the Democrats would keep the seat.

It's not hard to see Rubio or DeSantis win the district next year, especially Rubio. Their coattails could pull a candidate to victory over the finish line. Though it probably flips back D in 2024.

Interesting to know is that Rubio only lost this district by 6.5% in 2016 while Trump 2016 lost it by 11.4% (and DeSantis two years later by 13.3%).

Personally, I think that Rubio's strength is definitely underrated in suburban White areas of Florida (he even won Hillsborough County in 2016!). I wouldn't go so far as to say their coattails would flip it, though, unless the Republicans have an equally strong challenger to the popular incumbent Deutch.

And this, of course, is all based on the presumption that DeSantis and Rubio would be able to win the district, which would take immensely unlikely double-digit victories statewide. If DeSantis and Rubio are winning this district at all, the Republicans already have 54 senate seats and upwards of 240 House seats.

There are two GOP state reps in the area, Chip LaMarca and Mike Caruso, who won seats by double digits that Biden and Trump virtually tied in.

Either of these would be very good challengers to Deutch
They definitely have crossover appeal as each won some 5K Biden voters as well as all the Trump voters

[Oryxslayer]

-SNIP-

That FL-22 in the East-West divide was only Biden+9. I wonder if it will be competitive in 2022?

On the surface, it may look as if that'd be the case, and it possibly will be in the upcoming gubernatorial and senatorial races. It's a majority-White, suburban, affluent coastal district with a notably elderly population (only 14.8% youth, compared to 19.5% statewide and 22.1% nationwide) and a very large Jewish contingent (holding the city of Boca Raton). It swung significantly towards the right between the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential elections, going from Clinton+11.4 to Biden+9.8, and Youngkin and Ciattarelli's messages back earlier this month resonated very hard with this kind of district.

However, this ignores the presence of the current Democratic incumbent, Ted Deutch, a Jewish man from Boca Raton who is very pro-Israel and is very in-tune with his area, significantly outperforming both Clinton (by 2.0%) and Biden (by 2.4%). Perhaps a DSA-type candidate could make things interesting, but as long as Deutch keeps on running, I think the Democrats would keep the seat.

It's not hard to see Rubio or DeSantis win the district next year, especially Rubio. Their coattails could pull a candidate to victory over the finish line. Though it probably flips back D in 2024.

Interesting to know is that Rubio only lost this district by 6.5% in 2016 while Trump 2016 lost it by 11.4% (and DeSantis two years later by 13.3%).

Personally, I think that Rubio's strength is definitely underrated in suburban White areas of Florida (he even won Hillsborough County in 2016!). I wouldn't go so far as to say their coattails would flip it, though, unless the Republicans have an equally strong challenger to the popular incumbent Deutch.

And this, of course, is all based on the presumption that DeSantis and Rubio would be able to win the district, which would take immensely unlikely double-digit victories statewide. If DeSantis and Rubio are winning this district at all, the Republicans already have 54 senate seats and upwards of 240 House seats.

There are two GOP state reps in the area, Chip LaMarca and Mike Caruso, who won seats by double digits that Biden and Trump virtually tied in.

Reminder that a coastal seat very similar to the one proposed was drawn like this in 2011 then thrown out in 2016. We can judge based on the two years when it was in effect how viable the GOP was in challenging such a seat based on these results. it was actually Frankel who sat in the swing seat, and then they swapped after redistricting swapped their homes. She expanded her margin from 54-46 to 58-42 in 2014, despite the lower turnout producing a GOP environment nationwide.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

The FL State House proposes a 17 Trump - 11 Biden , in a GOP year could become 19R-9D.
 
https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1465337130972958727?s=20

[Roll Roons]

So either way, it's clear that the Florida GOP isn't going balls to the wall with redistricting. They could have chopped up FL-05, FL-07 and probably reduced Dems to one seat in the Tampa/St. Pete area.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

So either way, it's clear that the Florida GOP isn't going balls to the wall with redistricting.

The GOP House has a more aggressive map as well. Murphy's seat gets redistricted out in this plan.

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1465340478686044167?s=20

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1465340478686044167

This is what I was expecting from the beginning.   

It seems Sabatini's unpopularity with the FL GOP is what's keeping them from cracking FL-7,  this is the only map that does it.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1465340478686044167

This is what I was expecting from the beginning.   

It seems Sabatini's unpopularity with the FL GOP is what's keeping them from cracking FL-7,  this is the only map that does it.

That 6th is really marginal. Murphy might be hang on, or flip it back in 2024