2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Brittain33]

I can't believe they would not gerrymander, but I also can't believe they would release "good" maps and set themselves up to look bad later by gerrymandering after the fact.

Is it possible that trends in Central Florida are so risky that they preferred not to mess with FL-7?

[Brittain33]

If the final maps look like this, I take back anything I said about normalizing the FL Supreme Court ignoring the amendment for political expediency because it was now Republican.

[Roll Roons]

So why is it that the FL map was so much tamer than NC or OH?

[Skill and Chance]

So why is it that the FL map was so much tamer than NC or OH?

Obviously the constitutional amendments if this holds.

Also, they know that downballot R's tend to outperform presidential R's in most of FL.  This is true everywhere south of the Panhandle, and North Florida (outside of downtown Tallahassee and Jacksonville) is too R for this to matter anymore.  NC and OH are generally the opposite.

[Oryxslayer]

This map was 15/13 for Hillary in 2016 - I'd be stunned if this winds up being the final draft.

I mean that is entirely because of Miami-Dade, which is also why the map is 16-12 in 2020. Frankly, both presidential numbers were never accurate for that county, and I always preferred to use some variation of the 2016 senate and 2018 numbers when I messed around with FL in summer 2020. Both of the marginal seats remain marginals (R 16, D 18) under those numbers so I guess that's the constitution at work.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Weather or not FL Rs gerrymander, they have 2 problems in the Miami-Dade metro area.

The northern part of the state can be gerrymandered relatively normally "cracking/packing", and I suspect they will slowly ammend the map to make it more GOP favorable. No way Tampa gets 3 Biden seats for instance.

However, their Miami problem is outside the 2 black seats, you get 3 D (21, 22, and 23) seats that are kinda the ideal partisanship of around D +15 to D + 20; not enough to be considered packed but enough to reliably win. It very much gives me RGC

The 2nd decision they have to make is how crazy they want to go in the Cuban parts of Miami, since huge swings between 2016 and 2020 make defining a gerrymander in the region hard; a gerrymander on 2020 Pres numbers could be considered a dummymander but playing it safe could mean "overpacking" Rs if 2020 is indicative of future trends.

[Oryxslayer]

I would also note something that MCImaps said on twitter: they could be, like Texas, afraid of losing it all in lawsuits so are sacrificing some potential for the good of the present. Especially since their State Senate map locks in a R majority - the present map is potentially losable - through some blatant cracking in downtown Miami, St. Pete, and Gainesville.

[Devils30]

I would also note something that MCImaps said on twitter: they could be, like Texas, afraid of losing it all in lawsuits so are sacrificing some potential for the good of the present. Especially since their State Senate map locks in a R majority - the present map is potentially losable - through some blatant cracking in downtown Miami, St. Pete, and Gainesville.

 

That 16-12 map should get complete Democratic support as well. It’s pretty much what a commission would draw minus a couple things like St Pete. It could go 21-7 in a GOP wave if you look at Palm Beach and FL-22 but Dems would do fine in a D+1 type year which is all you can ask for.

[Torie]

I can't believe they would not gerrymander, but I also can't believe they would release "good" maps and set themselves up to look bad later by gerrymandering after the fact.

Is it possible that trends in Central Florida are so risky that they preferred not to mess with FL-7?

Perhaps they think even with a Pub Supreme Court, they understand what "unduly favor" means, in a way nobody thinks obtains in NYS with identical language? With redistricting it's agitprop 24/7, and on commissions of citizens ala MI, the Dems seem to have a monopoly on the smarts, and the Pubs the dumbs, just the way the political coalitions are going.

[Nyvin]

From this article




Does anyone know for sure who actually drew these maps?

In that sentence they're referring to the current district map that was redrawn in 2015,  the FL Supreme Court choose the map the Women's LoV drew.  

It's not referring to the draft map that came out today.

(I agree the article is worded very poorly though)

[S019]

From this article




Does anyone know for sure who actually drew these maps?

Well here's the publisher of that site:

https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1458549388599611395

More: https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1458551022230642690


So seems like they did want to play it safe and avoid legal challenges

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bruh even if they're playing it safe why would they draw 3 Biden seats in Tampa, when 2 is easy to do and perfectly legal, and one could argue better represents the interests of minority voters.

Even if Rs do end up playing this one safe I'd expect them to make a few minor changes at the very least, especially when it comes to the I-84 corridor.

[Nyvin]

Bruh even if they're playing it safe why would they draw 3 Biden seats in Tampa, when 2 is easy to do and perfectly legal, and one could argue better represents the interests of minority voters.

Even if Rs do end up playing this one safe I'd expect them to make a few minor changes at the very least, especially when it comes to the I-84 corridor.

Tampa is pretty much a Democratic gerrymander, lol.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Desantis has lost the vital support of laser eyed election twitter users.

https://twitter.com/sneedworth2000/status/1458534564859580420?s=21

[_.]

Based based based based based

Let's see how long this lasts


They gerrymandered Miami the dumbest way possible

Putting the fast-growing overwhelmingly Democratic (arguably gentrifying) central Miami with the shrinking Republican West Miami won't bode well for Rs long-term

And Tampa Bay at this point is a Democratic gerrymander lol

[Roll Roons]

Well, I really wanted to put Disney World into a GOP district: https://davesredistricting.org/join/3acbbb79-415c-4a77-89f7-15b9c27af38b

So I gave it to the Lakeland-based FL-28 and tweaked some of the other Central FL districts to adjust for population.

[_.]

I can't believe they would not gerrymander, but I also can't believe they would release "good" maps and set themselves up to look bad later by gerrymandering after the fact.

Is it possible that trends in Central Florida are so risky that they preferred not to mess with FL-7?

No, they aren't risky at all in fact..

It's really awesome they blundered like this because there were easy workarounds they could've chosen to counter Democratic trends in Orange, Seminole, and Hillsborough Counties.

The retirement communities in North-Central Florida, Hernando, Sumter, Citrus, and arguably even Pasco are high-growth (faster-growing than the blue counties), high-turnout, and receive a steady supply of retirees every year.

Mix and match them together and you can stuff blue areas in some pretty Republican districts...

For example in this map I made a few months back:

Image Link

The current maps feel too good to be true, and I'm expecting them to cut at least one of the D central Florida seats as they revise.

The fact that the Northern Florida D district made it on so far bodes well for Democrats, though IMO
I'd think they wouldn't have drawn it in the first place if they wanted to off it like that.

[_.]

When are they planning to put up the Florida Legislature maps?

That's where the interesting stuff will happen...
Lower profile and easy to get away with things

[Oryxslayer]

When are they planning to put up the Florida Legislature maps?

That's where the interesting stuff will happen...
Lower profile and easy to get away with things

Senate Map's are up on the same govt site as the congress - the state senate made these lines so they of course will release a map for their own chamber. Same stuff: neat lines, recognizable COIs, and Dems get better numbers in the Seminole and Homestead seats then they do currently. The inverse is though that most of the currently R held seats are reinforced so that the chamber's majority is no longer competitive, like it potentially can be on the current map.

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1458604058936164352?s=20

[Devils30]

If nothing changes, the Dems will probably vote yes on these congressional maps.

[Brittain33]

Perhaps they think even with a Pub Supreme Court, they understand what "unduly favor" means

Stop trying to make fetch happen, Torie

[Brittain33]

Desantis has lost the vital support of laser eyed election twitter users.

They've had a very rough couple of days.

[OBD]

This map is...actually good? Lmao

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Fantastic and fair map! 😀

[Torie]

Perhaps they think even with a Pub Supreme Court, they understand what "unduly favor" means

Stop trying to make fetch happen, Torie

I am too obtuse, or clueless, or senile, or un-hip, to understand what "fetch" means here in context. You can either enlighten me here, PM more, or ignore. No problem. You have a point about the the verb "stop" but that is for another day. It was from anyone but a very few, I would not respond to the the verb "stop."  I will "stop" soon enough. Patience.