2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Skill and Chance]

Here's my 20-8 R FL map. FL-28 and FL-27 are won by Trump by 1% and 2% respectively. The Tampa and FL Metro districts are not as clean as Abdullah's map, but it gets the job done for the GOP if they pursue a map like this in someway.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/19b9da27-58b4-405a-950f-0294ba7659fd

Frankly I think they are worried enough about the Jacksonville area at this point to do 19/9.  They might try to drop the arm into Tallahassee, though.
That clearly violates the law, the language of the amendment states pretty clearly that they have to keep towns, counties intact.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1446500856061435927

[Brittain33]

I love that we've normalized that a Florida Supreme Court will ignore a disadvantageous amendment to the State Constitution because "it's now a Republican court."

[lfromnj]

I love that we've normalized that a Florida Supreme Court will ignore a disadvantageous amendment to the State Constitution because "it's now a Republican court."

Just like the OR and NY courts and the IL courts for legislative maps which are supposed to be "reasonably compact". These courts just won't get involved mostly.

For Illinois’ state legislative lines, the state constitution further requires that districts be contiguous and reasonably compact.

For Oregon:
State law requires that congressional and state legislative districts meet the following criteria:[8]

Districts must be contiguous.
Districts must "utilize existing geographic or political boundaries."
Districts should not "divide communities of common interest."
Districts should "be connected by transportation links."
Districts "must not be drawn for the purpose of favoring a political party, incumbent or other person."

Its weird how only one is noted as an example of a hack court

[Brittain33]

I love that we've normalized that a Florida Supreme Court will ignore a disadvantageous amendment to the State Constitution because "it's now a Republican court."

Just like the OR and NY courts and the IL courts for legislative maps which are supposed to be "reasonably compact". These courts just won't get involved mostly.

That may be the case, but in Florida the amendment was passed recently and interpreted by the court to force a remap a few years ago, so this would be a change from recent jurisprudence and the intent of the people just because it's now Republican justices so they'll choose to ignore the specific, actionable directives of the amendment because they don't want to.

I don't know how long those other terms in other states have been in the legislation or if they've ever come up before... or that we assume the NY supreme court (whatever it's called) wouldn't strike down a Dem gerrymander, which they might.

[Torie]

I love that we've normalized that a Florida Supreme Court will ignore a disadvantageous amendment to the State Constitution because "it's now a Republican court."

Just like the OR and NY courts and the IL courts for legislative maps which are supposed to be "reasonably compact". These courts just won't get involved mostly.

That may be the case, but in Florida the amendment was passed recently and interpreted by the court to force a remap a few years ago, so this would be a change from recent jurisprudence and the intent of the people just because it's now Republican justices so they'll choose to ignore the specific, actionable directives of the amendment because they don't want to.

I don't know how long those other terms in other states have been in the legislation or if they've ever come up before... or that we assume the NY supreme court (whatever it's called) wouldn't strike down a Dem gerrymander, which they might.

"NY supreme court (whatever it's called)"

The Appellate Division of the Appellate Court. Please write that down.   It has a certain insane logic to it. If you want to appeal the appeals court, pretend it is the trial court of what appellate  courts do, which has its own appeals court.

PS: The Supreme Courts are actually a thing in NYS to confuse the masses still further, but they are mere trial courts close to the bottom of the food chain, just above the pond scum of municipal courts that deal with park and bark cases, and cases under 5K or whatever the jurisdictional limit number is at the moment.

[Devils30]

I love that we've normalized that a Florida Supreme Court will ignore a disadvantageous amendment to the State Constitution because "it's now a Republican court."

Just like the OR and NY courts and the IL courts for legislative maps which are supposed to be "reasonably compact". These courts just won't get involved mostly.

That may be the case, but in Florida the amendment was passed recently and interpreted by the court to force a remap a few years ago, so this would be a change from recent jurisprudence and the intent of the people just because it's now Republican justices so they'll choose to ignore the specific, actionable directives of the amendment because they don't want to.

I don't know how long those other terms in other states have been in the legislation or if they've ever come up before... or that we assume the NY supreme court (whatever it's called) wouldn't strike down a Dem gerrymander, which they might.

I think 19-9 with a minimal change or Duval vote sink FL-5 is the most likely outcome.

[Non Swing Voter]

I love that we've normalized that a Florida Supreme Court will ignore a disadvantageous amendment to the State Constitution because "it's now a Republican court."

Yes, but I don't think we as posters normalized this.  It's just an objective fact at this point that Republicans (including partisan Judges) lack any integrity or shame. 

[Frodo]

They are roughly even now, as far as voter registration is concerned:

Florida Republicans close voter registration gap with Democrats

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1457765309897654276

[Roll Roons]

Apparently this is the first draft: https://redistricting.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=ce93c91276654cbcb0cb9acf2f5a39b7

Really not that aggressive.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting how 5 was kept in tact but 14 still crosses the bay

[lfromnj]

Apparently this is the first draft: https://redistricting.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=ce93c91276654cbcb0cb9acf2f5a39b7

Really not that aggressive.

No?
That just seems to be a "publicly" submitted map 2 days ago. Still don't see any confirmation on the website. It seems like a possible map.

[Gass3268]

Florida released 4 maps. Not a lot of major differences.

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1458527026898427905?s=20

[Pollster]

These look....fine?

[lfromnj]

These look....fine?

Too fine to be real. Making a 3rd Biden seat in Tampa is too weird.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1458530294202519556?s=20

[Nyvin]

That can't possibly be real.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is one of those Charlie Brown football situations, isn’t it?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Huh, interesting. Maybe they're trying to play it safe with the SC?

[Gass3268]

These have to be fake, right?

[S019]

Huh, interesting. Maybe they're trying to play it safe with the SC?

Either that or incumbent demands limited their choices, for instance Bilirakis lives in Pinellas, if he wishes to keep his home in his seat that obviously limits GOP options for FL-13 (this is just an example, idk if it happened, but it's an example of the type of stuff we could be talking about)

[politicallefty]

The one thing about Lean R seats in Florida is that they are really stubbornly R.

Honestly, I was only just holding out hope that they don't try to recreate the Tampa-St. Petersburg district from the 2000s (i.e. Tampa crossing the bay and taking in the most Democratic precincts in St. Petersburg). If that's real, I'm seriously amazed at how clean the lines are in the Tampa Bay area (districts 12-16).

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1458525691520114696

Calm down everyone, these are staff maps that will serve as a template for further drawing. Not actual proposals.

There is no way these would be released without the approval of actual legislators and probably even leadership. My guess is these maps were to set the tone that they would not be egregiously gerrymandering, in accordance with the state constitution, but that they'll make things better for the Republicans on the edges in upcoming drafts.   

[Pollster]

This map was 15/13 for Hillary in 2016 - I'd be stunned if this winds up being the final draft.