2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Biden his time]

Wont Miami be underwater by 2050?

Aa for the city, pretty firmly no, even under the worst case scenarios. According to NASA, Miami Beach will see only 0.83 meters of sea level rise by 2100 in their medium scenario. Most of the city is well above that (the suburbs, though, not so much).

Parts of West Dade will see trouble starting around the 2040s, but it's nothing a little bit of infrastructure and ingenuity can't solve.
We must become Venice to survive.

And if it really gets bad, Florida will live on through the Orlando metro and Central Florida, which is well above sea level and wont be seeing any threat even with 10 meters of sea level rise.

Wont Miami be underwater by 2050?

they could learn from the Dutch on how to manage the oceans and keep some of the land

This unfortunately is not an option due to the local geology

The area will need to elevate itself by a massive amount. With a tax base of our size, it's definitely possible.
And it isn't as if we're gonna give up! Too much money at risk. 

[Biden his time]

Map #2:

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Map #2:

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The Villages sticks out like a sore thumb on this map.

[Biden his time]

Map #3 of Florida Census Tracts:

Voting Age Population by Race and Ethnicity:

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I haven't yet added a detailed legend to this one but it uses exactly the same colors as DRA's "All Groups" option does when put on 100% opacity. Go ahead and make your comparisons where you can.

[Biden his time]

Map #4, Same as above but total population

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Interesting to compare with Map #3

[Biden his time]

Surprises in the Census Data

Underperformance/Overperformance Map - Raw Numbers

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Underperformance/Overperformance Map - Percentage

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[Biden his time]

When you look at the Florida overperformance/underperformance maps above, one thing that may catch your eye is the heavy underperformances in Miami (-28,578) and Miramar (-6,590). These underperformances are so heavy, in fact, that Miami-Dade County outside of Miami overperformed by over 10,000, and Miramar was Broward County's greatest underperformer. (The counties as wholes did not perform so badly, barely being 10K off from the original projections)

Where did these underperformances come from? It's very easy to answer. The Black parts of these cities, East Miramar and Northern Miami (not North Miami, which also underperformed).

Miramar's population was previously estimated to be 141,000 in 2019, with 65,000 people who were African-American alone and 49,000 Hispanics (46% Black, 35% Hispanic).

The 2020 Census results show that Miramar's population is actually 135,000, with 57,000 people who were African-American alone and 55,000 Hispanics (42% Black, 41% Hispanic). The Non-Hispanic White population (mainly living in the West and Central parts of Miramar) completely evaporated, from being expected to number 18,000 to actually being 11,000.

In fact, East Miramar underperformed by 8,000 people, while Central Miramar and the heavily Hispanic West Miramar both overperformed (mainly due to Hispanics).

Similarly, in Miami, where the Black alone population was expected to be 79,000 (17% of the city), it actually turned out to be 57,000 (13% of the city).


You may be thinking, well it still won't be so hard to make a majority-Black district. Look at Miami Gardens, Opa-Locka, West Park, and Gladeview. They all overperformed. Why did they overperform, though? In each one of these cities, the Black population underperformed, but the Hispanic population overperformed enough that those cities as wholes all overperformed.

As an example, Miami Gardens, a "historically" (whatever that word means in South Florida) black suburb, was expected to have 78K Blacks and 29K Latinos. In reality, it had 70K Blacks and 37K Latinos.

The story is the same all throughout Northeast Miami-Dade and Southwest Broward, every city.


The new harsh truth for Frederica Wilson is that it is no longer possible to create a compact district in Miami-Dade and Broward where the population is majority-African-American by VAP. I tried, trust me.*

In fact, Wilson currently represents a plurality-Hispanic district by Voting-Age population (44.9% Hispanic to 43.6% Black), and where the population is only barely plurality Black (45.1% Black to 43.9% Hispanic).** This is opposed to earlier estimates where her district was thought to be upwards of 49% Black.


* Unless you want to go with this abomination which is only 51% Black (under the 2019 estimates it would've been 54% Black and also would've been 40K people bigger than your average district)

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The point still stands though, the 2019 ACS data projections made it very easy to draw a compact 56% Black VAP district in the area, and you could get it up to 60% if you wanted to get egregious. This is the case no longer.


** Yes, the Black population of FL-24 is younger than the Hispanic population. This is because the Hispanics who live in FL-24 disproportionately live in Central Miami and on the coast, and are very old and affluent compared to their counterparts across the rest of the county and the black populations of their district.


Interesting how much more intense than expected gentrification is.


Another thing important to note is that the Black areas of Northern Broward County and Jacksonville saw no such underperformance with their Black populations and proportions, with it getting even easier to draw more Black-heavy districts based in those areas.

I'm pretty confident in saying that two VAP Black districts based solely in Duval County and Northern Broward County will become necessities by 2030 if things continue at this rate.


It looks like TimTurner was onto something when he was talking about Miami-Dade getting a fourth Latino congressional seat

[Biden his time]

I tried my hand at a fair congressional map of Florida using the 2020 census results.

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The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

82/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
80/100 on the Compactness Index
59/100 on County Splitting
76/100 on the Minority Representation index
26/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 14R to 14D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 16R to 12D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 15R to 13D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 15R to 13D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 15R to 13D


This map has three majority-Hispanic districts in Miami-Dade, as well as a fourth majority-Hispanic district in the Orlando metro (something that was impossible under the 2019 numbers, insane growth happens here every year).

It also has a 48% Black district in Miami-Dade, a 37% Black district in Broward, and a 35% Black district in Duval (which would've been unthinkable before the Jacksonville overperformance).


Opinions?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here's my FL map with 2020 data. I was able to draw 3 Hispanic majority districts in the Miami area. Most of Duval is in one Dem leaning district. Al Lawson is drawn out. I do expect him to get screwed in redistricting tbh. I also put the new 28th district in the Fort Lauderdale area too. Overal map composition is 15 R - 13 D.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b1f91af-1bca-47b1-a24a-911c09279900

[Biden his time]

I tried my hand at a hardline Republican gerrymander of Florida using the 2020 census results. If Republicans go all out, the map will likely look something like this (perhaps with an extra Democratic sink in Miami-Dade County).

It seems more likely that we see a 19R - 9D or 18R - 10D map instead, though.

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The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

33/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
56/100 on the Compactness Index
43/100 on County Splitting
76/100 on the Minority Representation index
31/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 19R to 9D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 17R to 11D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 17R to 11D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 20R to 8D


This map has three majority-Hispanic districts in Miami-Dade, as well as a fourth majority-Hispanic district in the Orlando metro.

It also has a 50% Black district based in Miami-Dade, a 50% Black district based in North Broward and Palm Beach. Neither of these districts are very compact but this is how it is now.

It seems very likely in the future that it will be easier to make a compact North Broward Black VRA district (where the Black population is expanding) than it will be in Miami-Dade (because in Miami and the Southern reaches of the Black areas, the population is shrinking fast, and in the Northern reaches, such as East Miramar and Miami Gardens, the Black population is growing sluggishly, not enough to balance out).

The Jacksonville metro area has been split straight down the middle as evenly as possible, and both seats there voted for Trump by 13.1% in the 2020 presidential election. The Duval overperformance has lessened the margins from the previously expected Trump+17% and Trump+16% numbers, but it is still probably safe for the Republicans until 2024 or 2026 (Jacksonville's dynamic is similar to Atlanta's, demographically and politically). It will be interesting to see how long it'll take for the dummymander to fall.

Also, this is already when taking advantage of Union, Bradford, and Baker Counties to the West. Remove those and you can only manage Trump+11% districts.

By 2030 it will be mandatory for a Black-plurality seat solely to be placed in Jacksonville if things continue at this rate. Currently, a 37% Black seat can be made there, but Florida's districts are much larger than average due to it narrowly missing out on a 29th seat this apportionment.

The Republican seats are thin in Miami-Dade, but a fajita into Collier could theoretically make them redder. If Cubans shift even a smidge leftwards, the house of cards will fall but these are the risks you have to take to get a 20 - 8 map.

The Seminole-Lake-Volusia district may run into trouble, but it will happen later than you think, especially because Seminole's demographic transformation is being balanced out by high growth in North Brevard, Eastern Lake County, and the Deltona suburbs.

The Southeast Hillsborough-North Manatee County district has a similar dynamic, except it is trending much faster towards Democrats and is currently somewhat more Republican.


Opinions?

[Non Swing Voter]

I tried my hand at a hardline Republican gerrymander of Florida using the 2020 census results. If Republicans go all out, the map will likely look something like this (perhaps with an extra Democratic sink in Miami-Dade County).

It seems more likely that we see a 19R - 9D or 18R - 10D map instead, though.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

33/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
56/100 on the Compactness Index
43/100 on County Splitting
76/100 on the Minority Representation index
31/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 19R to 9D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 17R to 11D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 17R to 11D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 20R to 8D


This map has three majority-Hispanic districts in Miami-Dade, as well as a fourth majority-Hispanic district in the Orlando metro.

It also has a 50% Black district based in Miami-Dade, a 50% Black district based in North Broward and Palm Beach. Neither of these districts are very compact but this is how it is now.

It seems very likely in the future that it will be easier to make a compact North Broward Black VRA district (where the Black population is expanding) than it will be in Miami-Dade (because in Miami and the Southern reaches of the Black areas, the population is shrinking fast, and in the Northern reaches, such as East Miramar and Miami Gardens, the Black population is growing sluggishly, not enough to balance out).

The Jacksonville metro area has been split straight down the middle as evenly as possible, and both seats there voted for Trump by 13.1% in the 2020 presidential election. The Duval overperformance has lessened the margins from the previously expected Trump+17% and Trump+16% numbers, but it is still probably safe for the Republicans until 2024 or 2026 (Jacksonville's dynamic is similar to Atlanta's, demographically and politically). It will be interesting to see how long it'll take for the dummymander to fall.

Also, this is already when taking advantage of Union, Bradford, and Baker Counties to the West. Remove those and you can only manage Trump+11% districts.

By 2030 it will be mandatory for a Black-plurality seat solely to be placed in Jacksonville if things continue at this rate. Currently, a 37% Black seat can be made there, but Florida's districts are much larger than average due to it narrowly missing out on a 29th seat this apportionment.

The Republican seats are thin in Miami-Dade, but a fajita into Collier could theoretically make them redder. If Cubans shift even a smidge leftwards, the house of cards will fall but these are the risks you have to take to get a 20 - 8 map.

The Seminole-Lake-Volusia district may run into trouble, but it will happen later than you think, especially because Seminole's demographic transformation is being balanced out by high growth in North Brevard, Eastern Lake County, and the Deltona suburbs.

The Southeast Hillsborough-North Manatee County district has a similar dynamic, except it is trending much faster towards Democrats and is currently somewhat more Republican.


Opinions?

Would that comply with the VRA?  So we are looking at the GOP likely gaining 2 seats?  How much would that risk being a dummymander in Miami though.  A lot of those low propensity Trump voters can't be counted on to turn out in 2022 right?

[Biden his time]

-SNIP-

Would that comply with the VRA?  So we are looking at the GOP likely gaining 2 seats?  How much would that risk being a dummymander in Miami though.  A lot of those low propensity Trump voters can't be counted on to turn out in 2022 right?

These are the factors the GOP must consider when they attempt their gerrymander. It remains to be seen how Miami Cubans trend in the future, and such a map runs the risk of overextending, but these are simply the risks one takes when making a gerrymander.

Other places the GOP may get too cocky when making a 20-8 map are Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and the Orlando metro, considering trends.

The current North Florida Democratic district isn't VRA protected, but it will be interesting to see its future considering the growing Black population and the general bluing of the area (similar to Atlanta).

I did cover all this stuff and went into more detail in the paragraphs written below the map.

We don't know how it will go yet but this 20-8 configuration is really the highest they could go if they went all out (though they may be able to make their margins a little bit higher in the Miami districts, if they incorporate parts of Collier County).

[sting in the rafters]

Packed and cracked Miami-Dade like its the 80s

composite:14D/14R
potus 20: 13D/15R
att gen 18: 12D/16R
gov 18: 14D/14R
sen 18: 15D/13R
potus 16: 15D/13R
sen 16: 12D/16R
potus 12/16: 14D/14R

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/politicofl/status/1431349556592185347

[Frodo]

Republicans currently hold just short of 80 seats in the Florida House.  During Jeb Bush's governorship (in his second term), they had at times upwards of an 85-seat majority, at least until 2006.  After redistricting is over and done with, how likely is it that we are going to see those majorities again this decade?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Republicans currently hold just short of 80 seats in the Florida House.  During Jeb Bush's governorship (in his second term), they had at times upwards of an 85-seat majority, at least until 2006.  After redistricting is over and done with, how likely is it that we are going to see those majorities again this decade?

Seems like Rs win basically every marginal state HD and SD down ballot in Florida and generally have massive over performances on the Pres level, especially since Dems locally tend to be pretty packed. It would not surprise me.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans currently hold just short of 80 seats in the Florida House.  During Jeb Bush's governorship (in his second term), they had at times upwards of an 85-seat majority, at least until 2006.  After redistricting is over and done with, how likely is it that we are going to see those majorities again this decade?

Seems like Rs win basically every marginal state HD and SD down ballot in Florida and generally have massive over performances on the Pres level, especially since Dems locally tend to be pretty packed. It would not surprise me.

The differences between now and the Jeb Bush years is Dem strength in the Orlando area, which necessitates ceding more districts to Dems there now than in earlier years.  I’d say Republicans are currently pretty close to their ceiling in the Florida House.  

[Torie]

Has anyone taken on the chore of drawing a FL CD Pubmander that intelligently balances the risks and rewards associated with the legal constraints to which the map is subject (assuming a Pub friendly but not hackish, FL Supreme Court)? Is so, I would appreciate being directed to it.

[S019]

Has anyone taken on the chore of drawing a FL CD Pubmander that intelligently balances the risks and rewards associated with the legal constraints to which the map is subject (assuming a Pub friendly but not hackish, FL Supreme Court)? Is so, I would appreciate being directed to it.

I've tried something like this, but I always find it tricky because you need to cut up Hillsborough pretty perfectly for it to work, assuming you send the 14th into St. Pete, to take it out of Crist's seat, and Miami is always a total mess to draw, especially with FL only gaining 1 seat, which probably goes in I-4. Getting rid of Murphy is pretty easy, and can be done with few consequences, though.

[Donerail]

Has anyone taken on the chore of drawing a FL CD Pubmander that intelligently balances the risks and rewards associated with the legal constraints to which the map is subject (assuming a Pub friendly but not hackish, FL Supreme Court)? Is so, I would appreciate being directed to it.

Well, that depends a lot on how hackish the court is. To take S019's example, looking at FL-13, a non-hackish court wouldn't send FL-14 into Pinellas at all — there's precedent directly on point saying that violates the Fair Districts Amendment. A slightly more hackish court would allow it, but might require FL-13 to stay within Pinellas instead of extending into Pasco or west Hillsborough; an even more hackish court would allow that kind of solution.

In general, I would assume a Pub friendly and extremely hackish court — DeSantis has stacked it that way for a reason — but that the Legislature may not go for maximal R gain because of other factors (like keeping Bilirakis's Pinellas residence in FL-12, which limits how aggressively you can draw FL-13).

[Torie]

Has anyone taken on the chore of drawing a FL CD Pubmander that intelligently balances the risks and rewards associated with the legal constraints to which the map is subject (assuming a Pub friendly but not hackish, FL Supreme Court)? Is so, I would appreciate being directed to it.

Well, that depends a lot on how hackish the court is. To take S019's example, looking at FL-13, a non-hackish court wouldn't send FL-14 into Pinellas at all — there's precedent directly on point saying that violates the Fair Districts Amendment. A slightly more hackish court would allow it, but might require FL-13 to stay within Pinellas instead of extending into Pasco or west Hillsborough; an even more hackish court would allow that kind of solution.

In general, I would assume a Pub friendly and extremely hackish court — DeSantis has stacked it that way for a reason — but that the Legislature may not go for maximal R gain because of other factors (like keeping Bilirakis's Pinellas residence in FL-12, which limits how aggressively you can draw FL-13).

I think folks in general assume state high courts are more hackish than they in fact are. Sure, partisan courts (which I deplore), will go in the direction of their preferred  party when there are reasonable choices to make and they pick the ones that help their team, like the PA Dem friendly court did in two instances as to CD lines in the last cycle, but it is rare I think that they go hog wild.

[S019]

Has anyone taken on the chore of drawing a FL CD Pubmander that intelligently balances the risks and rewards associated with the legal constraints to which the map is subject (assuming a Pub friendly but not hackish, FL Supreme Court)? Is so, I would appreciate being directed to it.

Well, that depends a lot on how hackish the court is. To take S019's example, looking at FL-13, a non-hackish court wouldn't send FL-14 into Pinellas at all — there's precedent directly on point saying that violates the Fair Districts Amendment. A slightly more hackish court would allow it, but might require FL-13 to stay within Pinellas instead of extending into Pasco or west Hillsborough; an even more hackish court would allow that kind of solution.

In general, I would assume a Pub friendly and extremely hackish court — DeSantis has stacked it that way for a reason — but that the Legislature may not go for maximal R gain because of other factors (like keeping Bilirakis's Pinellas residence in FL-12, which limits how aggressively you can draw FL-13).

I think folks in general assume state high courts are more hackish than they in fact are. Sure, partisan courts (which I deplore), will go in the direction of their preferred  party when there are reasonable choices to make and they pick the ones that help their team, like the PA Dem friendly court did in two instances as to CD lines in the last cycle, but it is rare I think that they go hog wild.

For reference, I've been more optimistic on FL than most, and I'm undecided on whether the FL-13 situation is ultimately allowed, but I expect that's as far as they can go, if they try to get rid of Demings, Soto, or Lawson, there's a very strong argument that racial gerrymandering is involved, which is an even harder case to win than one against partisan gerrymandering. As for South Florida, they have enough vulnerable incumbents down there as is, and they'd be well advised to pack all of the Democrats into as blue seats as possible.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/de08607c-4346-44af-b0ed-0190a4643aa7
This is an effort at a GOP-mander that doesn't fall afoul of the Fair Districts Amendment.
16 seats that at least lean-likely GOP in a neutral year, and 2 tossups in Miami-Dade.

[BoiseBoy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/de08607c-4346-44af-b0ed-0190a4643aa7
This is an effort at a GOP-mander that doesn't fall afoul of the Fair Districts Amendment.
16 seats that at least lean-likely GOP in a neutral year, and 2 tossups in Miami-Dade.

This is one of the better looking Florida maps I've seen. Well done.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/de08607c-4346-44af-b0ed-0190a4643aa7
This is an effort at a GOP-mander that doesn't fall afoul of the Fair Districts Amendment.
16 seats that at least lean-likely GOP in a neutral year, and 2 tossups in Miami-Dade.

This is one of the better looking Florida maps I've seen. Well done.

Thank you for the kind words.
One thing I did not anticipate was Brevard+Indian River being perfectly equal to a district.