2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[CookieDamage]

15 D - 13 R (although the two south Miami districts are gonna be troublesome even though I've made them more dem leaning)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/145ff5db-1990-4f6b-8049-b689c29f8f65

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So I was asking myself - how can you avoid a disrict going from Collier to Miami-Dade and nest 3 seats solely within Miami-Dade+Monroe, all while protecting Latino voting power?
In Miami-Dade, there are fajitas to avoid a 90% Latino CD being drawn and overconcentrating the Latino vote. To test this and make sure, I drew a "natural" arrangement with all of Monroe and then moving north from Homestead until I reached quota. After filling in 2 more CDs, my hypothesis was proven correct.
So I thought on how this could be avoided, and turns out it is possible by "cracking" the (relatively) less Latino areas in the southern parts of Miami-Dade and splitting NW Miami Dade into 2 districts. It looks a bit wonky but it does its job, with 3 districts that are 76%, 71%, and 76% respectively, according to 2019 total population figures. If CVAP is your preferred metric, they also perform - 71%, 68%, and 72% respectively. I tried to avoid municipal splits whenever feasible.
I also was able to preserve a black CD, drawn out of the rest of Miami-Dade and neighboring areas of Broward.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is the rest of the map.
Pasco+Pinellas is perfectly placed for exactly 2 districts, a black-plurality CD is drawn completely within Broward. A district was drawn wholely within Broward that to the greatest extent feasible avoided black precincts while being compact, to allow the creation of the aforementioned CD. A minority-influence CD is drawn in Palm Beach County. In Central Florida, FL-09 (renumbered as the 11th), retreats from Polk County and gains a substantial part of Orange, in turn pushing the 10th into Lake. Ocala and Gainesville are paired together to create a R-leaning but competitive CD in inland northern and north-central Florida. The current FL-05 is dismantled, replaced mainly by a strongly Dem-leaning all-Duval CD that voted for Gillium by 13, and a FL-02 that voted for DeSantis by 7. The rather awkward shape of the new FL-07 is due to the break-up of FL-05 as it is currently constituted in combination with the new Ocala-Gainesville CD.
Trump, Clinton, DeSantis, Gillium, Scott, and Nelson all won 14 seats under these boundaries in their 2016 and 2018 races.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/203ffc97-5f6f-4428-afc1-7421912332d1

[Biden his time]

So I was asking myself - how can you avoid a disrict going from Collier to Miami-Dade and nest 3 seats solely within Miami-Dade+Monroe, all while protecting Latino voting power?
In Miami-Dade, there are fajitas to avoid a 90% Latino CD being drawn and overconcentrating the Latino vote. To test this and make sure, I drew a "natural" arrangement with all of Monroe and then moving north from Homestead until I reached quota. After filling in 2 more CDs, my hypothesis was proven correct.
So I thought on how this could be avoided, and turns out it is possible by "cracking" the (relatively) less Latino areas in the southern parts of Miami-Dade and splitting NW Miami Dade into 2 districts. It looks a bit wonky but it does its job, with 3 districts that are 76%, 71%, and 76% respectively, according to 2019 total population figures. If CVAP is your preferred metric, they also perform - 71%, 68%, and 72% respectively. I tried to avoid municipal splits whenever feasible.
I also was able to preserve a black CD, drawn out of the rest of Miami-Dade and neighboring areas of Broward.

Interesting solution! I really like the idea.

This is the rest of the map.
Pasco+Pinellas is perfectly placed for exactly 2 districts, a black-plurality CD is drawn completely within Broward. A district was drawn wholely within Broward that to the greatest extent feasible avoided black precincts while being compact, to allow the creation of the aforementioned CD. A minority-influence CD is drawn in Palm Beach County. In Central Florida, FL-09 (renumbered as the 11th), retreats from Polk County and gains a substantial part of Orange, in turn pushing the 10th into Lake. Ocala and Gainesville are paired together to create a R-leaning but competitive CD in inland northern and north-central Florida. The current FL-05 is dismantled, replaced mainly by a strongly Dem-leaning all-Duval CD that voted for Gillium by 13, and a FL-02 that voted for DeSantis by 7. The rather awkward shape of the new FL-07 is due to the break-up of FL-05 as it is currently constituted in combination with the new Ocala-Gainesville CD.
Trump, Clinton, DeSantis, Gillium, Scott, and Nelson all won 14 seats under these boundaries in their 2016 and 2018 races.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/203ffc97-5f6f-4428-afc1-7421912332d1

Excellent job. Thank you for keeping the inland South counties together! I also must say I'm impressed that you got the mint-colored district, FL-23, near majority-Black! And thank you for not lumping Miramar in with Palm Beach! And I like a bunch of other stuff too, this map is awesome.

One thing I find interesting is that you pushed the red exurban Jacksonville district into the Deep South rather than going farther into St. Johns. Was that the last district you did (or among them)?

[Biden his time]

Screw the Tampa precincts honestly.
I won't be making any more state maps for Florida until DRA fixes that issue, really, it's such a pain.

The last time I went through it took me over an hour to just get them right (and this is me going into the block tool to fix the contiguity of districts).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Excellent job. Thank you for keeping the inland South counties together! I also must say I'm impressed that you got the mint-colored district, FL-23, near majority-Black! And thank you for not lumping Miramar in with Palm Beach! And I like a bunch of other stuff too, this map is awesome.

One thing I find interesting is that you pushed the red exurban Jacksonville district into the Deep South rather than going farther into St. Johns. Was that the last district you did (or among them)?

I actually drew FL-01 last. Exurban Jacksonville moved into the inland rural Deep South because I kept existing FL-09, and since I prefer to have districts running along the coast and I drew an Ocala-Gainesville CD, this meant that the most-of-Volusia CD had no choice but to run up to St. Augustine, which forced the exurban Jacksonville CD to run west.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Screw the Tampa precincts honestly.
I won't be making any more state maps for Florida until DRA fixes that issue, really, it's such a pain.

The last time I went through it took me over an hour to just get them right (and this is me going into the block tool to fix the contiguity of districts).

My method is to use area tool to mass-color precincts in a well selected area and then methodically split each precinct as needed. To save my time I always try to spend as little time as is feasible doing this.

[Biden his time]

-SNIP-

My method is to use area tool to mass-color precincts in a well selected area and then methodically split each precinct as needed. To save my time I always try to spend as little time as is feasible doing this.

I just found an even quicker solution, the municipality tool! It works perfectly, and cuts straight through those precincts.
I spent literally 5 minutes on the Tampa Bay Area this time around


By the way, here is my first pre-census data attempt at a fair 28-District map of Florida:

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.04%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.
It scores 84/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index and 76/100 on the Minority Representation index.
This map was made with a panhandle-to-South approach (I began at the panhandle then worked my way down).

The map above shows results from the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 14R to 14D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 17R to 11D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 15R to 13D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 15R to 13D


I did many new things this time, such as keeping Lee County whole, managing to keep Volusia and Flagler whole and in the same district (as well as keeping Brevard whole), using a semi-donut configuration for Jacksonville, and fajita-ing all the way from Collier County to Martin County.

The most ugly part of my map, though, for certain has to be the Lake County-Northern Polk County district (between the Orlando and Tampa Bay metro areas). I'll need a new solution for that in the future, especially if I'm not gonna be splitting Sumter.


Any opinions or thoughts?

[Biden his time]

I started making my second Florida map from the bottom-up, and I think I made a great combination for Southeast Florida. It's based on 2015 - 2019 ACS numbers, and has a population deviation of 0.01%!

I think I did particularly well with county splits (there's only one to accommodate a majority Black district) and compactness.

Unfortunately, minority representation has taken a hit (mainly because of Florida's districts being larger than anticipated, it only will have 28 seats instead of 29), but I did what I could here too. Three majority Hispanic, One plurality Hispanic (nearly), One plurality Black and one majority Black.

Image Link


Here's an overview (going South to North). It's a long read so I put it in a spoiler:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

FL-28 (light purplish, Monroe and Southern Miami-Dade)

Majority Hispanic District (63% of the population, 58% of the Voting Age population) which takes up Monroe County and Southern Miami-Dade.

The Electoral Winners in recent times for this district area:

Clinton 2016 by 22%
Murphy 2016 (the guy who ran against Rubio for U.S. Senate) by 7%
Gillum 2018 by 16%
Nelson 2018 by 17%

Probably for Biden in 2020 by 5 - 10% considering swings. It closely reflects Miami-Dade as a whole.

Nothing much more to say on this one really, except it's a very diverse area culturally. Geography though puts it together, and I'm real glad that I managed to avoid a fajita into Collier.


FL-27 (light green, West Miami-Dade)

90% Hispanic District (in both total population and voting age) which is chock-full of working-class immigrant Clinton-Trump voters. Rubio's bastion, and likely to be represented by Diaz-Balart. It's extremely Cuban and South American in nature, having Hialeah, Westchester, Doral, you know the places.

Historical Data:

Clinton 2016 by 3%
Rubio 2016 by 21%
DeSantis 2018 by 14%
Scott 2018 by 13%

Trump 2020 by at least 20%. Perhaps it could be more.

This district should be stable for the future as it is modestly growing, but its Cuban contingent is slowly losing ground to Venezuelans as Doral has begun to swell in population (fueled by immigration) and Hialeah and co. is stalling. Perhaps in the future, it could elect the United States' first Venezuelan-American representative.


FL-26 (dark blue, Northeast Miami-Dade and Southeast Broward)

56% Black District (in both total population and voting age). Sizable Hispanic minority which nevertheless is very liberal. It stretches from the Black areas of Miami all the way up into Eastern Miramar and Pembroke Pines.

Historical Data:

Clinton 2016 by 71%
Murphy 2016 by 62%
Gillum 2018 by 72%
Nelson 2018 by 71%

Biden 2020 by probably 60 - 70%. It showed a modest swing to Trump, just like most inner-city areas across the country

This place would vote for a donkey over a Republican if it could. The district, while likely being stable in 2020 is gonna face some problems though in the future as it's facing population loss and Black outmigration.


FL-25 (salmon, Northeast Coastal Miami-Dade)

Majority Hispanic District (71% of population, 65% of voting age). Sizable white minority. Probably the richest and wokest district I'll make in Florida. It stretches from Aventura down to Miami, and includes nearly the whole city. Parts of this district which are more working-class might be gentrified in coming decades.

Historical Data:

Clinton 2016 by 25%
Murphy 2016 by 6%
Gillum 2018 by 16%
Nelson 2018 by 17%

Biden 2020 by probably 10 - 15%. It showed a modest swing to Trump.

This district sees significant growth every year and the so-called Miami "tech boom" is happening in this area. One problem for it in the future is going to be sea-level rise, which this district will be bearing the brunt of.


FL-24 (purple, Western and Southeastern Broward)

40.1% Non-Hispanic White and 39.5% Hispanic by population as of 2017. The Hispanic minority, though, is fast-growing and I feel comfortable saying it'll be a plurality here by the 2020 census. This is the original place where WASP flight occurred to back during the original stages of Hispanic migration to Miami-Dade, but now, these WASPs are moving out. Sizable and fast-growing Asian minority of 6% (I say this unironically, 6% is large for Florida).

This is also the district I'd live in (probably represented by 🤮 Wasserman Schultz but at least it's compact).

Historical Data:

Clinton 2016 by 25%
Murphy 2016 by 18%
Gillum 2018 by 25%
Nelson 2018 by 27%

Biden 2020 by probably 15 - 20%. It showed a sizable swing to Trump.

This district is heavily college-educated and faces steady growth every year.


FL-23 (light mint, Northern Broward)

Black plurality (42% Black, 35% White) by total population but is White plurality by voting age population (44% White, 36% Black). Has a young and fast-growing Black population (in contrast to Miami-Dade's black district) and is on track to one day be Black-majority if things continue at this pace. It has Lauderhill, North Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Coral Springs, which gives it a good mix and diversity.

It also lacks Hispanic people compared to the other districts (at only a 20% Hispanic proportion). This explains why it stayed relatively strong for Murphy in 2016.

Historical Data:

Clinton 2016 by 42%
Murphy 2016 by 40%
Gillum 2018 by 45%
Nelson 2018 by 46%

Biden 2020 by probably 40 - 45%. It showed a modest swing to Trump.

This district is facing steady population growth.

One thing I'd improve when I make this map again though is that I'd push down FL-25 farther South to the whiter woker coastal areas instead of into the largely Cuban and working-class Western Miami, which I feel would fit better culturally, economically, and politically in FL-27. FL-28 will have to do some shifting to achieve this but it'd be worth it.

Link to map on DRA

What do you all think? Anything else which could be improved?

[Donerail]

I don't see them dropping the FL-5 AA seat.  Minority access seats pretty much never go away.   Even with the R State Supreme Court it'll exist in some fashion somewhere.  The optics of drawing it out to replace it with a bunch of 55% R seats is absolutely horrible.

Yes because the current fl5th looks so clean and nice on the optical side to the average voter.

The much more moderate GA gop was also willing to draw out the similarly non sensible Ga 12th even if it was a minority access seat.

Democrats could argue for a seat purely based in Jacksonville and that had a chance in a lawsuit. I do not see current courts requiring Fl 5th in current form.

Pretty shape of a district < Denying Blacks representation

I'm not sure GA-12 is fitting the role of "minority access" either.  It was a new seat when they drew it and only lasted two elections.   If it was it was a really terrible one.

Its not just the shape. Its the fact that Tallahassee and Jacksonville are 2 separate cities quite far apart. Just like how the old GA 12th in the 2000s originally went from Savanah to Augusta to Athens. The GOP made it drop Athens in 2006 and in 2010 they dropped Savanah .  To most people they would vote for an improved fair amendment only if the districts are ugly as those are easy to propagandize. Leaving FL 5th as is,increases the chances of a ballot measure succeeding if anything.

I agree it's hard to justify FL-05 from a VRA/state law equivalent perspective . It's almost impossible to justify FL-05 while opposing LA-02 and agreeing that the 2011 VA-03 and NC-12 were unconstitutional. 

At the same time, it's not crazy to think R's would benefit strategically from keeping FL-05 this decade.
 Northeast Florida has significant dummymander potential for R's down the line and the backlash to drawing out a black congressman would only accentuate that. 

The worst case scenario for Republicans if they draw out FL-05 is a swingy seat in Jacksonville electing a Democrat, which is still better than a safe seat electing a Democrat.

I guess they might be worried about a Gwen Graham doppleganger in FL-02, but that seems fairly unlikely to me. Even if that was a major risk, having 2 seats for most of the decade and 0 seats for like 2 years at the worst seems like a better deal.

It's important to remember that these districts are drawn by members of the state legislature; their concern first and foremost is not a Republican majority in Congress (though they certainly wouldn't mind that), it's a continuing Republican majority in the state legislature.

In that context, the continued existence of FL-05 and its predecessors make sense. There has always been an informal, unspoken alliance between Republicans and black/Hispanic Democrats on the gerrymandering issue — Republicans would like to pack Democrats into as few districts as they can, and black/Hispanic Democrats would like as many majority-minority districts as possible, two goals that go hand in hand. This alliance matters, despite the lack of formal power that the Democrats hold in Tallahassee, because of the state's process for constitutional amendments by referendum; Republicans have relied on minority Democrats to block (in the case of independent commissions) or water down (more recent redistricting standards) proposals that would take power over redistricting from the state legislature.

What they have to worry about here is losing the tacit support of black Democrats, which could lead the FDP to more aggressively pursue an amendment on gerrymandering that would permanently remove the process from GOP hands. The Democrats are not and will not ever be able to win majorities under the lines that exist, but they would be able to pass an amendment if they put some effort into it. Maps that deliver comfortable-but-not-maximal GOP majorities, while affording substantial opportunities for minority representation, is the payment to ensure that doesn't happen.

[Biden his time]

I tried my hand at my second fair 28-district map of Florida.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

91/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
85/100 on the Compactness Index
55/100 on County Splitting
72/100 on the Minority Representation index
19/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (:/)

The map above shows results from the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 14R to 14D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 16R to 12D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 15R to 13D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 15R to 13D


This time I think I did alright, with Greater Miami, Greater Orlando, the East Coast, Jacksonville, the Panhandle, and the North Central part which I tried to fix from last time.

The Southwest and Tampa Bay is ugly though


Opinions?

[Biden his time]

For fun, I also tried my hand at making a 45-district map of Florida, which is how many districts it'd have under the Cube Root Rule in the 2020 census.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.06%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

94/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
74/100 on the Compactness Index
68/100 on County Splitting
76/100 on the Minority Representation index
27/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 28R to 17D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 24R to 21D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 26R to 19D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 23R to 22D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 23R to 22D


I won't pretend this one's much good but it was an interesting exercise.


Opinions?

[Torie]

After seeing an absurdly illegal CD map done by a gunslinger on RRH, I posted the below:

Once the final census numbers are available, given that the law prohibits a map favoring one party over the other, my suggestion is to turn off the partisan numbers on the DRA, and then draw the cleanest map possible that minimizes chops and erosity while complying with the VRA (e.g., no minority packing), and when finished, save that map, duplicate it, and then turn on the partisan button to see with the partisan numbers, if you can Pub it up, while being able to defend it under the state law (e.g., there are two reasonable options in places, that are close to being in equipoise based on the non partisan merits, and you just happened to pick the “wrong” one from a partisan perspective).

In the real world, when the lawsuit comes, the map drawers will be asked if they were aware of the partisan splits when they drew the map in the sense of having the partisan numbers in the DRA turned on. The “correct” answer will be no, the partisan button was turned off. If the answer is “yes” rather than “no,” the Pub mappers will be in some trouble right out of the box, and their credibility put into question. Each state has its own rules, and FL is not TX, where anything goes when it comes to state law. Just a suggestion.

Florida law:

“(a) No apportionment plan or individual district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent; and districts shall not be drawn with the intent or result of denying or abridging the equal opportunity of racial or language minorities to participate in the political process or to diminish their ability to elect representatives of their choice; and districts shall consist of contiguous territory.
(b) Unless compliance with the standards in this subsection conflicts with the standards in subsection 1(a) or with federal law, districts shall be as nearly equal in population as is practicable; districts shall be compact; and districts shall, where feasible, utilize existing political and geographical boundaries.”

Notice above that the partisan prong just uses the words “intent” while the minority prong uses “intent or result.” Notice further that “no partisan intent” trumps hewing to county and municipal lines and compactness. Keep that partisan button off! Your honor, I was just drawing a clean map, and had no idea what the partisan effect was. I am shocked, shocked I tell you, that it gave the Pubs everything not locked down by the VRA. That appears to be the result, but that was not my intent!

[Torie]

I posted the above because that nice looking 20-9 map above clearly favors the Pub party. Was that the intent, or just an accident? Was it drawn with the partisan button on? If so, why? Florida does not equal Texas!

[Biden his time]

After seeing an absurdly illegal CD map done by a gunslinger on RRH, I posted the below:

Once the final census numbers are available, given that the law prohibits a map favoring one party over the other, my suggestion is to turn off the partisan numbers on the DRA, and then draw the cleanest map possible that minimizes chops and erosity while complying with the VRA (e.g., no minority packing), and when finished, save that map, duplicate it, and then turn on the partisan button to see with the partisan numbers, if you can Pub it up, while being able to defend it under the state law (e.g., there are two reasonable options in places, that are close to being in equipoise based on the non partisan merits, and you just happened to pick the “wrong” one from a partisan perspective). In the real world, when the lawsuit comes, the map drawers will be asked if they were aware of the partisan splits when they drew the map in the sense of having the partisan numbers in the DRA turned on. The “correct” answer will be no, the partisan button was turned off. If the answer is “yes” rather than “no,” the Pub mappers will be in some trouble right out of the box, and their credibility put into question. Each state has its own rules, and FL is not TX, where anything goes when it comes to state law. Just a suggestion.

Florida law:

“(a) No apportionment plan or individual district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent; and districts shall not be drawn with the intent or result of denying or abridging the equal opportunity of racial or language minorities to participate in the political process or to diminish their ability to elect representatives of their choice; and districts shall consist of contiguous territory.
(b) Unless compliance with the standards in this subsection conflicts with the standards in subsection 1(a) or with federal law, districts shall be as nearly equal in population as is practicable; districts shall be compact; and districts shall, where feasible, utilize existing political and geographical boundaries.”

Notice above that the partisan prong just uses the words “intent” while the minority prong uses “intent or result.” Notice further that “no partisan intent” trumps hewing to county and municipal lines and compactness. Keep that partisan button off! Your honor, I was just drawing a clean map, and had no idea what the partisan effect was. I am shocked, shocked I tell you, that it gave the Pubs everything not locked down by the VRA. That appears to be the result, but that was not my intent!

Relevant:

Image Link

[Biden his time]

I've got a question: Click poll link

Please discuss


Not making a new thread because this topic really isn't all that significant but I'm still curious

[Biden his time]

Another question I've got: Click poll link

Please discuss


To me, I think the answer is having four VRA majority-Hispanic districts. Three being based in Miami-Dade County and one being based in the Orlando metro area (around Osceola County).

However, if the GOP gets to fajita-ing I can realistically see five VRA majority-Hispanic districts, four being based in Miami-Dade County.

Merging together SW Broward with a little bit of Northwest Dade gets you a Hispanic majority pretty quickly, so it seems quite realistic.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another question I've got: Click poll link

Please discuss


To me, I think the answer is having four VRA majority-Hispanic districts. Three being based in Miami-Dade County and one being based in the Orlando metro area (around Osceola County).

However, if the GOP gets to fajita-ing I can realistically see five VRA majority-Hispanic districts, four being based in Miami-Dade County.

Merging together SW Broward with a little bit of Northwest Dade gets you a Hispanic majority pretty quickly, so it seems quite realistic.

I wonder when Miami-Dade gets a 4th Latino CD, if at all.

[Brittain33]

Another question I've got: Click poll link

Please discuss


To me, I think the answer is having four VRA majority-Hispanic districts. Three being based in Miami-Dade County and one being based in the Orlando metro area (around Osceola County).

However, if the GOP gets to fajita-ing I can realistically see five VRA majority-Hispanic districts, four being based in Miami-Dade County.

Merging together SW Broward with a little bit of Northwest Dade gets you a Hispanic majority pretty quickly, so it seems quite realistic.

I wonder when Miami-Dade gets a 4th Latino CD, if at all.

Miami-Dade only has population for 4 districts before you leave the county and is already the base for an African-American district, so it seems unlikely it will be the base for 4 Hispanic CDs.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another question I've got: Click poll link

Please discuss


To me, I think the answer is having four VRA majority-Hispanic districts. Three being based in Miami-Dade County and one being based in the Orlando metro area (around Osceola County).

However, if the GOP gets to fajita-ing I can realistically see five VRA majority-Hispanic districts, four being based in Miami-Dade County.

Merging together SW Broward with a little bit of Northwest Dade gets you a Hispanic majority pretty quickly, so it seems quite realistic.

I wonder when Miami-Dade gets a 4th Latino CD, if at all.

Miami-Dade only has population for 4 districts before you leave the county and is already the base for an African-American district, so it seems unlikely it will be the base for 4 Hispanic CDs.

Oh I know. In essence I am asking "when does Miami-Dade get 5 CDs"?

[Biden his time]

Image Link

First in a series of many Florida maps I will make to the Census Tract level

[Biden his time]

Another question I've got: Click poll link

Please discuss


To me, I think the answer is having four VRA majority-Hispanic districts. Three being based in Miami-Dade County and one being based in the Orlando metro area (around Osceola County).

However, if the GOP gets to fajita-ing I can realistically see five VRA majority-Hispanic districts, four being based in Miami-Dade County.

Merging together SW Broward with a little bit of Northwest Dade gets you a Hispanic majority pretty quickly, so it seems quite realistic.

I wonder when Miami-Dade gets a 4th Latino CD, if at all.

Miami-Dade only has population for 4 districts before you leave the county and is already the base for an African-American district, so it seems unlikely it will be the base for 4 Hispanic CDs.

Oh I know. In essence I am asking "when does Miami-Dade get 5 CDs"?

Well, it's a long way off, that's for sure, most likely in 2040 or 2050.

In reality, it'd probably be even faster just to wait until the Black population declines enough (the NorthEast Miami-Dade Black neighborhoods and communities are shrinking fast, mainly moving to Broward) that they don't warrant their own community of interest.

This is realistic by 2030, but more likely in 2040.

[Brittain33]

I hate to be a doomer but we have to be very cautious in discussing population growth in Miami-Dade in 2040 or 2050.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wont Miami be underwater by 2050?

[Bootes Void]

Wont Miami be underwater by 2050?

they could learn from the Dutch on how to manage the oceans and keep some of the land