Monkey's Paw: U.S. House Edition

[Lisa's voting Biden]

You come across a monkey's paw that can grant you three wishes. Instead of wishes however, you are able to know the partisan result of three House races of your choosing.

What three House races would you want to see the results of?

[brucejoel99]

TX-24, OH-01, GA-07

[Gracile]

TX-22, PA-01, IL-13

[😥]

1. TX-22 (margin)
If the Democrats can win this seat, they will definitely win at least 4-5 more seats in Texas. And then it's pretty likely that Biden wins Texas

2. MN-07. (margin)
If Collin Peterson wins, then I have no doubt that Democrats are doing well in other rural areas and Biden is a comfortable leader in the Rust Belt

3. GA-07. (margin)
Democrats' comfortable victory here can signal a lot about voting in suburban parts of states and Biden's chances of winning Georgia

[Libertas Vel Mors]

MN-07

SC-01

IN-05

[Epaminondas]

2. MN-07. (margin)
If Collin Peterson wins, then I have no doubt that Democrats are doing well in other rural areas and Biden is a comfortable leader in the Rust Belt

But Peterson won in 2016 while Clinton got shellacked... ?

[😥]

2. MN-07. (margin)
If Collin Peterson wins, then I have no doubt that Democrats are doing well in other rural areas and Biden is a comfortable leader in the Rust Belt

But Peterson won in 2016 while Clinton got shellacked... ?

First, I said the word "margin". Secondly, this time Peterson has an extremely strong opponent, unlike in 2016, so now his victory will testify to good results for Biden in the Rust Belt. Thirdly, I did not say that Biden wins rural areas, I said that Biden, in that case, would do much better there than Hillary in 2016

[Joseph Cao]

GA–07, IA–02, PA–10.

These are located in, roughly, the three main categories of swing states Biden will aim to win: driving up base turnout with minorities and suburbanites in Georgia, pulling back blue-collar Obama–Trump voters in Iowa, and whether Biden is doing well enough with suburban and exurban voters to flip Pennsylvania. The seats themselves should also tell us about the state of play in the House and whether (a) Democrats are flipping seats within reach of their 2018 results; (b) Republicans can play offence in Trump-friendly territory; and (c) the map is being expanded from 2018 to sweep away Republican incumbents like Perry. If 2020 proves to be as nationalised as 2016, the margins might possibly also be indicative of the Senate race outcomes in Iowa and Georgia.