CA-SEN 2022: The thread about Kamala's likely replacement

[MT Treasurer]

So now that it's official, it might be worth asking what happens to Kamala's Senate seat. There is, of course, a huge bench of ambitious Democrats in the state and Republicans would, at the outset, have almost no chance. Does Newsom appoint someone who'll run, or does he choose a placeholder and let the battle happen?

? This has zero chance of flipping.

[Greedo punched first]

Who would win Orange County, my home county, in a Barbara Lee-Ted Lieu runoff?

[Mr. Smith]

I'd have expected Jerry to do a placeholder, but I suspect Newsom will want a long-term ally in the Senate to go with Feinstein.

[Roll Roons]

So now that it's official, it might be worth asking what happens to Kamala's Senate seat. There is, of course, a huge bench of ambitious Democrats in the state and Republicans would, at the outset, have almost no chance. Does Newsom appoint someone who'll run, or does he choose a placeholder and let the battle happen?

? This has zero chance of flipping.

Open Senate seats in a midterm, even in safe states, should generally be treated with an abundance of caution.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Alabama

Yes, Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to hold the seat, but I don't think it's completely out of the question that they nominate a Martha Coakley and Republicans find someone who catches lightning in a bottle.

[MT Treasurer]

So now that it's official, it might be worth asking what happens to Kamala's Senate seat. There is, of course, a huge bench of ambitious Democrats in the state and Republicans would, at the outset, have almost no chance. Does Newsom appoint someone who'll run, or does he choose a placeholder and let the battle happen?

? This has zero chance of flipping.

Open Senate seats in a midterm, even in safe states, should generally be treated with an abundance of caution.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Alabama

Yes, Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to hold the seat, but I don't think it's completely out of the question that they nominate a Martha Coakley and Republicans find someone who catches lightning in a bottle.

Normally I’d agree, but CA is pretty much the state least likely to elect a Senator of the other party (except maybe HI because of CA's top-two primary) + MA/AL were special elections, not regular elections.

Martha Coakley would easily win a Senate race in CA in November 2022. Larry Hogan is far more likely to win in MD than any Republican is to win in CA (there’s no way Garcia would make it competitive either, if he’s lucky enough to somehow survive this year of course).

[Greedo punched first]

In a D vs. D runoff, which counties would vote for the most left wing candidate regardless of that candidate's home region or ethnicity? Anything other than Humboldt and Mendocino?

[SevenEleven]

So now that it's official, it might be worth asking what happens to Kamala's Senate seat. There is, of course, a huge bench of ambitious Democrats in the state and Republicans would, at the outset, have almost no chance. Does Newsom appoint someone who'll run, or does he choose a placeholder and let the battle happen?

? This has zero chance of flipping.

Open Senate seats in a midterm, even in safe states, should generally be treated with an abundance of caution.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Alabama

Yes, Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to hold the seat, but I don't think it's completely out of the question that they nominate a Martha Coakley and Republicans find someone who catches lightning in a bottle.

Neither of those are midterms, they're special elections.

Republicans are competing against the weaker of two Democrats to even have a shot at being on the ballot. There's no way this seat ends up anything but Democratic. The last time any Republican won a statewide election in California will have been over 15 years ago by 2022. And they have actually been doing worse each cycle.

[Greedo punched first]

Isn't Biden winning Wyoming far more likely than a Republican winning California?

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Hilda Solis would be a good choice for Newsom to make as an appointment, either as a placeholder, or as someone to actually run in 2022.

[Alben Barkley]

Harris will not be VP. If picked, she would ensure that the entire ticket gets dragged down to defeat. It would be a disaster.

This aged well LOL

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Alex Padilla.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Eleni Kounalakis

[brucejoel99]

Padilla is the heavy favorite IMO. Neither Becerra nor Lee would be shocking, though, for various reasons.

I could definitely see Padilla (*especially* Padilla, actually) or Becerra getting the nod from Newsom, but would he really appoint Barbara Lee? Doesn't seem like he really has anything to gain from appointing her (i.e. a natural ally in the Senate in addition to a hand-picked new SoS or AG).

[Greedo punched first]

Who would win Orange County in a Padilla-Lee runoff?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Who would win Orange County in a Padilla-Lee runoff?

Not Lee, for literally all of these questions.

[Greedo punched first]

Who would win Orange County in a Padilla-Lee runoff?

Not Lee, for literally all of these questions.

Who wins Humboldt County in such a runoff?

[Pulaski]

A bit preemptive, I know, but current polling seems to indicate Harris is likely to be elected Vice President in a few months. So if that's the case:

• Who does Newsom appoint to serve until 2022?
• Who runs/gets elected in 2022?

Some potential candidates I can see:

• Xavier Becerra
• Ro Khanna
• Eleni Kounalakis (pls no)
• Alex Padilla
• Eric Garcetti
• London Breed?

Your thoughts?

[brucejoel99]

CA-SEN 2022: Please stop creating new threads about Kamala's likely replacement

Mods, please merge.

[Pulaski]

Apologies, hadn't seen.

[LtNOWIS]

Padilla is the name I've seen a lot, though I can see Newsome appointing himself or a woman, maybe like London Breed, Kounalakis, or several house members.

I don't think Newsom would be stupid enough to risk falling victim to the evident political curse that has been Governors appointing themselves to the Senate.

Interesting read. But with the latest example being nearly 45 years ago, I don't buy it. Are there any recent examples? I was thinking Manchin had done this but I just checked and forgot he did not appoint himself, instead he did a placeholder and ran when it was open.

If Newsom is superstitious, than a placeholder Brown appointment makes sense.

Not a direct example, but Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski appointed his daughter to a vacant Senate seat. She was a state legislator but it still rubbed people the wrong way, and 4 years later Murkowski was defeated in a landslide by Wasilla mayor Sarah Palin.

If Newsom wants the seat, a placeholder makes much more sense. It could be Jerry Brown or another elder statesman, or it could be some other obvious placeholder. Someone equivalent to Senators Ted Kaufman, Carte Goodwin, etc.

[brucejoel99]

Padilla is the name I've seen a lot, though I can see Newsome appointing himself or a woman, maybe like London Breed, Kounalakis, or several house members.

I don't think Newsom would be stupid enough to risk falling victim to the evident political curse that has been Governors appointing themselves to the Senate.

Interesting read. But with the latest example being nearly 45 years ago, I don't buy it. Are there any recent examples? I was thinking Manchin had done this but I just checked and forgot he did not appoint himself, instead he did a placeholder and ran when it was open.

If Newsom is superstitious, than a placeholder Brown appointment makes sense.

Not a direct example, but Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski appointed his daughter to a vacant Senate seat. She was a state legislator but it still rubbed people the wrong way, and 4 years later Murkowski was defeated in a landslide by Wasilla mayor Sarah Palin.

If Newsom wants the seat, a placeholder makes much more sense. It could be Jerry Brown or another elder statesman, or it could be some other obvious placeholder. Someone equivalent to Senators Ted Kaufman, Carte Goodwin, etc.

The only problem therein for Newsom is the possibility of Brown deciding he likes being in the Senate enough to run for the full term (which he'd win pretty damn easily). Sure, he'd be 90 by the end of it, but this is Moonbeam we're talking about here, so no possibility should be completely written off.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

So now that it's official, it might be worth asking what happens to Kamala's Senate seat. There is, of course, a huge bench of ambitious Democrats in the state and Republicans would, at the outset, have almost no chance. Does Newsom appoint someone who'll run, or does he choose a placeholder and let the battle happen?

? This has zero chance of flipping.

Open Senate seats in a midterm, even in safe states, should generally be treated with an abundance of caution.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Alabama

Yes, Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to hold the seat, but I don't think it's completely out of the question that they nominate a Martha Coakley and Republicans find someone who catches lightning in a bottle.

Normally I’d agree, but CA is pretty much the state least likely to elect a Senator of the other party (except maybe HI because of CA's top-two primary) + MA/AL were special elections, not regular elections.

Martha Coakley would easily win a Senate race in CA in November 2022. Larry Hogan is far more likely to win in MD than any Republican is to win in CA (there’s no way Garcia would make it competitive either, if he’s lucky enough to somehow survive this year of course).

California also has such a large population of Democrats that it would be hard for Democratic turnout to be so bad that a statewide Democrat would lose. Adding that on top of the top-two primary making a GOP lockout very possible and how there won't be a special for Harris's seat makes it nigh-impossible for a Republican to win the 2022 Senate race.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

So now that it's official, it might be worth asking what happens to Kamala's Senate seat. There is, of course, a huge bench of ambitious Democrats in the state and Republicans would, at the outset, have almost no chance. Does Newsom appoint someone who'll run, or does he choose a placeholder and let the battle happen?

? This has zero chance of flipping.

Open Senate seats in a midterm, even in safe states, should generally be treated with an abundance of caution.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Alabama

Yes, Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to hold the seat, but I don't think it's completely out of the question that they nominate a Martha Coakley and Republicans find someone who catches lightning in a bottle.

California is just not really comparable though. It's infinitely more expensive to run a competitive general election in, so unless Republicans nominated another socially liberal billionaire that can self-fund, I just don't see it happening in any scenario, barring the Democrat being a child pedophile.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans really can’t afford the Senate to get worse than 51D/49R after this year's elections. In 2022, I could see them picking up NH with Sununu (although it wouldn’t be an easy race by any means and would require the national environment to go south for Democrats) and one of AZ/NV/CO (likely in that order). If we’re talking about surpise pickups, VT (Leahy retirement) is probably their best bet, followed closely by MD (Hogan running), but we’re really talking about uphill territory here. OR might be a candidate as well, but I don’t see Wyden retiring/losing in 2022. CA isn’t happening.

I don’t think there will be a special election in 2021/2022, actually.

[WD]

Republicans really can’t afford the Senate to get worse than 51D/49R after this year's elections. In 2022, I could see them picking up NH with Sununu (although it wouldn’t be an easy race by any means and would require the national environment to go south for Democrats) and one of AZ/NV/CO (likely in that order). If we’re talking about surpise pickups, VT (Leahy retirement) is probably their best bet, followed closely by MD (Hogan running), but we’re really talking about uphill territory here. OR might be a candidate as well, but I don’t see Wyden retiring/losing in 2022. CA isn’t happening.

I don’t think there will be a special election in 2021/2022, actually.

You think VT could flip?