CA-SEN 2022: The thread about Kamala's likely replacement

[Greedo punched first]

Newsom will appoint Padilla. Something had to convince him to not run for CA-25, & I have a feeling it was Newsom promising him this opportunity if/when Kamala becomes VP.

The better question is whether or not Porter runs against him in '22?

Considering the fact that Feinstein will retire in 2024, why not wait until then instead of going after an incumbent with no obvious ideological or other issues?

Feinstein has already filed to run for re-election in 2024. She's not vacating that seat while she still has a pulse.

Yes, but she will change her mind like Orrin Hatch and retire.

[brucejoel99]

Newsom will appoint Padilla. Something had to convince him to not run for CA-25, & I have a feeling it was Newsom promising him this opportunity if/when Kamala becomes VP.

The better question is whether or not Porter runs against him in '22?

Considering the fact that Feinstein will retire in 2024, why not wait until then instead of going after an incumbent with no obvious ideological or other issues?

Feinstein has already filed to run for re-election in 2024. She's not vacating that seat while she still has a pulse.

Yes, but she will change her mind like Orrin Hatch and retire.

Given your prediction track record, looks like she'll still be in the Senate come 2030.

[Storr]

I just looked it up and California is one of those states where it has "the appointed senator serving the balance of the term or until the next statewide general election". So whoever would be appointed would serve out the rest of of Kamala's term until 2022. Since this is the case, unless the person appointed is specifically appointed as a placeholder, being an incumbent could be a big advantage for them running for a full term in 2022.

Personally, I'd like someone from Southern California since Bay Area folks have dominated the state's senate seats for decades.

Edit: One person I'd personally like seeing in the Senate is Ted Lieu. I have no idea if he even has the desire to move chambers. He's fairly high in the House leadership (Co-Chair of the Policy and Communications Committee), so that might shed some doubt on any possible interest in the Senate. But he has a great backstory (immigrant from Taiwan, served in the Air Force JAG Corps) and he's not afraid to speak his mind which would likely make his time unlimited Senate floor speeches entertaining. His response to Nunes' lawyer threatening to sue him for publicly discussing Nunes' murky relationship with Lev Parnas comes to mind:  "I welcome any lawsuit from your client and look forward to taking discovery of Congressman Nunes. Or, you can take your letter and shove it."

[Landslide Lyndon]

Newsom will appoint Padilla. Something had to convince him to not run for CA-25, & I have a feeling it was Newsom promising him this opportunity if/when Kamala becomes VP.

The better question is whether or not Porter runs against him in '22?

Considering the fact that Feinstein will retire in 2024, why not wait until then instead of going after an incumbent with no obvious ideological or other issues?

Feinstein has already filed to run for re-election in 2024. She's not vacating that seat while she still has a pulse.

She filed to continue being able to fundraise. She has said nothing about running for reelection.

[Lognog]

I really don't see Newsom doing a place holder. He probably wants to be a kingmaker

[Lognog]

Porter would be a dumb pick, risks flipping that seat(inb4 muh trends while forgetting IA 1st, and Maine 1st, NY 19th etc.)
Also Porter wouldn't be very likely to win a primary, Orange county Democrats are pretty new to the scene overall, some ambitious politician from the bay area/LA would want that seat.

Yes?
This assumes KH is VP so its a D presidency?
Rs are energized they flip it in a special and hold it in the GE.

Not in Cali-freaking-fornia, no.

Rs have always over performed in non November elections so they would easily flip it under a D midterm with a Biden presidency.

You have to be trolling.

Well no it wouldn't be an easy flip with Katie porter running in 2022, I would call it Lean D with that. I am calling a special election with super depressed D electorate compared to the last 4 years in a relatively marginal district in a state where Rs usually over perform when its not election day.( see OC supervisor 2019) Lean/Likely R and then I would call the GE in November around tilt R/Lean R. This is assuming we don't see massive trends in OC in 2020 of course but Id still feel fairly confident that it flips in a special election.

Ah, you didn't make clear this entire time that you were referring to CA-45, not CA-SEN. Seemed like you were saying that Katie Porter being appointed to the Senate would mean that she's at risk of losing the Senate seat in a resultant special election.

Porter would be a dumb pick, risks flipping that seat(inb4 muh trends while forgetting IA 1st, and Maine 1st, NY 19th etc.)
Also Porter wouldn't be very likely to win a primary, Orange county Democrats are pretty new to the scene overall, some ambitious politician from the bay area/LA would want that seat.

 I mentioned other congressional districts rather than a senate seat specifically talking about trends.

can someone please bookmark this

[brucejoel99]

Newsom will appoint Padilla. Something had to convince him to not run for CA-25, & I have a feeling it was Newsom promising him this opportunity if/when Kamala becomes VP.

The better question is whether or not Porter runs against him in '22?

Considering the fact that Feinstein will retire in 2024, why not wait until then instead of going after an incumbent with no obvious ideological or other issues?

Feinstein has already filed to run for re-election in 2024. She's not vacating that seat while she still has a pulse.

She filed to continue being able to fundraise. She has said nothing about running for reelection.

She ran for a 6th term at the age of 85. That really should tell you all you need to know about whether she intends to be an incumbent Senator or a private citizen when she passes on from this life to the next.

[MillennialModerate]

Maria Shriver

[Horsemask]

Padilla is the name I've seen a lot, though I can see Newsom appointing himself or a woman, maybe like London Breed, Kounalakis, or several house members.

[brucejoel99]

Maria Shriver

MillennialModerate not missing a chance to bow down before the Kennedys? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell ya!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jerry Brown isnt gonna be the replacement, he is the popular version of Ed Market whom is gonna lose to Kennedy. Due to fact Daleys, and Joe Kennedy and Biden are blue dogs and replacing Market isnt gonna matter in a state like MA, watch and see

[brucejoel99]

Padilla is the name I've seen a lot, though I can see Newsome appointing himself or a woman, maybe like London Breed, Kounalakis, or several house members.

I don't think Newsom would be stupid enough to risk falling victim to the evident political curse that has been Governors appointing themselves to the Senate.

[They not like us]

Katie Porter pls!

[Horsemask]

Padilla is the name I've seen a lot, though I can see Newsome appointing himself or a woman, maybe like London Breed, Kounalakis, or several house members.

I don't think Newsom would be stupid enough to risk falling victim to the evident political curse that has been Governors appointing themselves to the Senate.

Interesting read. But with the latest example being nearly 45 years ago, I don't buy it. Are there any recent examples? I was thinking Manchin had done this but I just checked and forgot he did not appoint himself, instead he did a placeholder and ran when it was open.

If Newsom is superstitious, than a placeholder Brown appointment makes sense.

[brucejoel99]

Padilla is the name I've seen a lot, though I can see Newsome appointing himself or a woman, maybe like London Breed, Kounalakis, or several house members.

I don't think Newsom would be stupid enough to risk falling victim to the evident political curse that has been Governors appointing themselves to the Senate.

Interesting read. But with the latest example being nearly 45 years ago, I don't buy it. Are there any recent examples? I was thinking Manchin had done this but I just checked and forgot he did not appoint himself, instead he did a placeholder and ran when it was open.

If Newsom is superstitious, than a placeholder Brown appointment makes sense.

No recent examples because no modern Governor - including Manchin - has been stupid enough to do so, since it's pretty much a given that appointing oneself would very much be seen by the electorate as a self-serving move. It's not superstition; it's politics.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Maybe Schiff will be appointed?

Becerra was a shock in 2016 given his seniority, but I don’t think that Schiff would accept.

[Horsemask]

Padilla is the name I've seen a lot, though I can see Newsome appointing himself or a woman, maybe like London Breed, Kounalakis, or several house members.

I don't think Newsom would be stupid enough to risk falling victim to the evident political curse that has been Governors appointing themselves to the Senate.

Interesting read. But with the latest example being nearly 45 years ago, I don't buy it. Are there any recent examples? I was thinking Manchin had done this but I just checked and forgot he did not appoint himself, instead he did a placeholder and ran when it was open.

If Newsom is superstitious, than a placeholder Brown appointment makes sense.

No recent examples because no modern Governor - including Manchin - has been stupid enough to do so, since it's pretty much a given that appointing oneself would very much be seen by the electorate as a self-serving move. It's not superstition; it's politics.

I feel like it is equally self-serving to appoint a placeholder ally to the seat just to make a run for it at the next election.

I don't disagree with you that it is self-serving or stupid. I just wouldn't call it an "evident political curse".

[brucejoel99]

Padilla is the name I've seen a lot, though I can see Newsome appointing himself or a woman, maybe like London Breed, Kounalakis, or several house members.

I don't think Newsom would be stupid enough to risk falling victim to the evident political curse that has been Governors appointing themselves to the Senate.

Interesting read. But with the latest example being nearly 45 years ago, I don't buy it. Are there any recent examples? I was thinking Manchin had done this but I just checked and forgot he did not appoint himself, instead he did a placeholder and ran when it was open.

If Newsom is superstitious, than a placeholder Brown appointment makes sense.

No recent examples because no modern Governor - including Manchin - has been stupid enough to do so, since it's pretty much a given that appointing oneself would very much be seen by the electorate as a self-serving move. It's not superstition; it's politics.

I feel like it is equally self-serving to appoint a placeholder ally to the seat just to make a run for it at the next election.

I don't disagree with you that it is self-serving or stupid. I just wouldn't call it an "evident political curse".

Oh, it's definitely just as self-serving, but at least it can be played off as "I appointed who I believed was the best person in the state to represent us in the Senate, but they chose not to run for another term & I don't believe any other candidate can represent us as well as I know we can be represented" or some sh*t like that. Political junkies like us would see right through that, but the electorate as a whole would probably eat it up.

8 immediate losses for the 9 Governors who were stupid enough to actually just say "f**k it" & appoint themselves, though, is pretty evident.

[Storr]

Hot take: Katie... Hill

But really, Jerry Brown would be the best placeholder.

Becerra wouldn’t be bad, but he would be kind of weird in the sense that he was in the House, Brown tapped him for AG, then Newsom taps him for Sen. I think that Becerra would be a good candidate for 2022 if Newsom picks a placeholder.

John Chiang would be nice to see as well.

Yeah, Jerry Brown would be an obvious placeholder. #MoonbeamForSenate

But I'll mention it since I said it in the original Kamala replacement thread, my favorite is Ted Leiu.

[Greedo punched first]

Isn't Barbara Lee an Emerald Coast style Democrat?

[Left Wing]

Moonbeam for senate

[Pyro]

Ro Khanna, ideally.

[pikachu]

No one can really say what Newsom’s going to do wrt a placeholder. Though if he wants to appoint a real successor, I feel like Becerra is the obvious choice for a variety of reasons. I’d be surprised if Newsom appoints himself, because a presidential run in likely in the cards in ‘24 or ‘28 and the DiFi seat will, um, probably be open sometime this decade if he really wants to be in the Senate.

[Mike Thick]

Padilla is the heavy favorite IMO. Neither Becerra nor Lee would be shocking, though, for various reasons.

[SevenEleven]

Maybe Schiff will be appointed?

Schiff wouldn't accept a Senate appointment.

Senator Ted Lieu sounds really nice to me.