How many points would Biden have to win the PV by for you to be confident that he won?
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  How many points would Biden have to win the PV by for you to be confident that he won?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: How many points would Biden have to win the PV by for you to be confident that he won?
#1
6 or more
#2
5
#3
4
#4
3
#5
2
#6
1
#7
He can without the PV
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Author Topic: How many points would Biden have to win the PV by for you to be confident that he won?  (Read 1378 times)
jdk
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« Reply #25 on: April 01, 2020, 07:12:00 PM »
I believe he probably wins with 3... but it would need to be at least double that to actually be a comfortable guarantee...
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #26 on: April 01, 2020, 07:12:36 PM »
3
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #27 on: April 01, 2020, 07:13:50 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on April 01, 2020, 06:26:38 PM
Four. Though I do think it's possible that he wins with a margin of about three, I just wouldn't necessarily be confident in it.

Your April fools avatar hurts my eyes
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #28 on: April 01, 2020, 08:36:27 PM »
4 points for me to feel pretty confident, though he could eke out a win with 3 points.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #29 on: April 01, 2020, 09:21:23 PM »
4%
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #30 on: April 02, 2020, 01:27:47 AM »
4.  Which is why I'm pretty confident he'll win as I expect him to win the popular vote by about 7.
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #31 on: April 02, 2020, 01:40:40 AM »
Well, going by this pattern:
2008 Obama beats McCain 53%-46% (365-173)
2012 Obama beats Romney 51%-47% (332-206)
2016 Hillary beats Trump 48%-46% but loses (304-227)
Considering Trump's narrow victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 Biden should hope for something like a four point spread maybe 49%-45%. If Biden somehow gets 50% of the popular vote, I can't see Trump winning more than 200 electoral votes.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #32 on: April 02, 2020, 05:46:39 PM »
Quote from: morgankingsley on April 01, 2020, 07:13:50 PM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on April 01, 2020, 06:26:38 PM
Four. Though I do think it's possible that he wins with a margin of about three, I just wouldn't necessarily be confident in it.

Your April fools avatar hurts my eyes

Haha! That was the point. I got rid of it though, obviously.
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #33 on: April 02, 2020, 06:35:15 PM »
3 is a pure tossup. Anything above 3.5 and Biden’s the victor, anything below 2.5 and it’s 2016 part 2: Electric Boogaloo.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #34 on: April 02, 2020, 06:43:49 PM »
5 I guess
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #35 on: April 02, 2020, 06:45:50 PM »
Quote from: BlueSwan on April 01, 2020, 02:42:19 PM
Voted 5 points, because it takes a lot for me to be confident in a win.

Realistically, I think Biden is a better fit for the rust belt than Hillary was, so I don't think his EC disadvantage is necessarily as big as hers.

Literally almost any Democrat would be a better fit for the Rust belt than Hillary was. Like they would have been better off running a potato with “D” painted on it.
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Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
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« Reply #36 on: April 02, 2020, 06:57:37 PM »
4, but I bet if he wins by 1-2 that it will probably be enough.

Remember that Hillary’s 2-point popular vote margin was built on huge wins in California and New York. A Biden 2-point win would probably be built on smaller margins in those places and stronger showings in swing states.
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