MO Gov: Saundra McDowell files to run in primary against Parson

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/j_hancock/status/1245075397324275712?s=21


Lmaoooo

[Canis]

I knew she was gonna she was tweeting about rocky and rematches

[MarkD]

There are going to be some interesting state legislative races this year. Especially for the state Senate. District 1 is open, where Scott Sifton is term-limited. He is not running for anything else this year. That is a competitive district; Sifton only won by a little under 51% in his first election and then about 53% his second election. It will be a close contest again this year, I'm sure. Also, District 15 right next door is going to closer than usual. It is normally a rock-ribbed, pretty heavily Republican district, but the Democrats have the best possible candidate to run - State Rep. Deb Lavender of Kirkwood. She's the only one who can make District 15 competitive. Across the state in District 17, incumbent Democrat Lauren Arthur has to win a full term in her own right after easily winning a mid-term special election, and that district had previously elected Republicans four times in a row. It's a competitive district too. Lastly, District 19, encompassing Columbia, incumbent Republican Caleb Rowden faces stiff competition this year from former state Rep. Judy Baker, who was trounced in her race for State Treasurer four years ago, but she narrowly won Dist. 19 at the time.

In the House, I think it's fascinating that there will be seventeen rematches between incumbents and the oppoenents they have beaten once before - sixteen races between where they ran against each other two years ago and one race where they ran against each other four years ago.

[Hope For A New Era]

Probably sees opportunity in Parson's refusal to issue a stay-at-home order, but I think that's far more likely to help Galloway than any potential Republican primary challenger.

[brucejoel99]

Is Parson even unpopular among Republicans? I can't imagine.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I wonder if Paraon’s poor response gives Democrats an opening here. They already have their best candidate possible challenging him

[Bidenworth2020]

I wonder if Paraon’s poor response gives Democrats an opening here. They already have their best candidate possible challenging him

I think you of all people would realize that Missouri is WAY too far gone to elect a democrat against a non-joke republican (which Parson is not).

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I wonder if Paraon’s poor response gives Democrats an opening here. They already have their best candidate possible challenging him

I think you of all people would realize that Missouri is WAY too far gone to elect a democrat against a non-joke republican (which Parson is not).

What a silly argument. Trends and political lean of a state are not enough to stop a challenger from ousting a member from the dominant party if things are being run poorly. See Bevin, Matt; Quinn, Pat

[Bidenworth2020]

I wonder if Paraon’s poor response gives Democrats an opening here. They already have their best candidate possible challenging him

I think you of all people would realize that Missouri is WAY too far gone to elect a democrat against a non-joke republican (which Parson is not).

What a silly argument. Trends and political lean of a state are not enough to stop a challenger from ousting a member from the dominant party if things are being run poorly. See Bevin, Matt; Quinn, Pat

Missouri's rural areas have no elasticity comparable to Kentucky's, particularly East Kentucky which carried Beshear to victory paired with a good showing in the closed-in suburbs. Even as she was winning by 6 points, McDowell did worse than Obama in large swaths of rural areas, often substantially. The only reason she won was due to urban Hawley +20-30 counties siding with her by decent margins which, as mentioned, will NOT happen with a normal republican on the ballot like Parson.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

LmaO. This is all conjecture! You have no idea if Parson (if his poor performance on COVID tanks his approvals) will suffer an electoral fate similar to McDowell if things get that bad. We literally had an election two years ago that the very Democrat running against Parson actually won! So there is very clearly a way for a Democrat to win in Missouri despite your ridiculous assertions to the contrary. It would just take extraordinary circumstances, which COVID mishandling might just be.

[MT Treasurer]

- "Normal" Republican Senator nearly loses in a GOP wave, underperforms Trump by 15 points, and does worse than the "normal" Republican Senator in WI who was considered DOA
- Deeply unpopular Democratic Senator outperforms Clinton by 13
- Democrats win a statewide office by 6 points even as their Senator loses by 6.

"Parson couldn’t possibly lose under any circumstances, Missouri is inelastic, polarization, Safe R."

[brucejoel99]

Is Parson even unpopular among Republicans? I can't imagine.

I've seen nothing to indicate this. Most people I've talked to have liked his Coronavirus response so far, and I'm from the suburbs.

More generally, a lot of Republicans I've talked to appreciate the 'normalcy' of Parson compared to Greitens.

If only they could've applied the same logic to Trump's impeachment trial

[jamestroll]

There are actually few states that I would say that the minority party can not win a statewide election. And the minority party did win a statewide election in a state in Dec 2017 that I would have listed as unwinnable for the minority party statewide. Admittedly, it was very special circumstances. They also won a governorship in Kentucky, which is a state right on the border if I would list as unwinnable for minority party.

In general if you can quickly imagine a plausible map/coalition for the out party to win statewide than it is possible. In Missouri, we at least have a lot of suburban votes that Democrats could realistically campaign for and convince to switch sides. Missouri is not on my list of states the minority party can not won.

Right now the GOP can not win a statewide election in California, Hawaii or New York. Probably add Maryland after Hogan is gone (though the GOP has a couple of candidates who could be the new Hogan).

Right no the Democrats can no win a statewide election in Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and probably not Alabama after Jones. The other deep south states I do not include as the floor is so high and turnout differences and/or a flawed GOP candidate would have an opening for a Democrat.

Now that I said that I bet we will see at least one of California, Hawaii, New York, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, or Alabama elect a candidate of the minority party in the next couple of cycles lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Parson is safe, case closed

[Roll Roons]

There are actually few states that I would say that the minority party can not win a statewide election. And the minority party did win a statewide election in a state in Dec 2017 that I would have listed as unwinnable for the minority party statewide. Admittedly, it was very special circumstances. They also won a governorship in Kentucky, which is a state right on the border if I would list as unwinnable for minority party.

In general if you can quickly imagine a plausible map/coalition for the out party to win statewide than it is possible. In Missouri, we at least have a lot of suburban votes that Democrats could realistically campaign for and convince to switch sides. Missouri is not on my list of states the minority party can not won.

Right now the GOP can not win a statewide election in California, Hawaii or New York. Probably add Maryland after Hogan is gone (though the GOP has a couple of candidates who could be the new Hogan).

Right no the Democrats can no win a statewide election in Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and probably not Alabama after Jones. The other deep south states I do not include as the floor is so high and turnout differences and/or a flawed GOP candidate would have an opening for a Democrat.

Now that I said that I bet we will see at least one of California, Hawaii, New York, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, or Alabama elect a candidate of the minority party in the next couple of cycles lol.

For now, I also don't think it's possible for Democrats to win a statewide election in Arkansas or Tennessee, barring a Moore-type scenario. Those states have a much smaller black population than Mississippi, Louisiana or South Carolina, and lack the Democratic downballot strength that West Virginia still has. Also, what about Nebraska and South Dakota for Democrats, and Virginia for Republicans? Even Utah, despite Trump's unpopularity there, is probably unwinnable for Democrats.

[jamestroll]

There are actually few states that I would say that the minority party can not win a statewide election. And the minority party did win a statewide election in a state in Dec 2017 that I would have listed as unwinnable for the minority party statewide. Admittedly, it was very special circumstances. They also won a governorship in Kentucky, which is a state right on the border if I would list as unwinnable for minority party.

In general if you can quickly imagine a plausible map/coalition for the out party to win statewide than it is possible. In Missouri, we at least have a lot of suburban votes that Democrats could realistically campaign for and convince to switch sides. Missouri is not on my list of states the minority party can not won.

Right now the GOP can not win a statewide election in California, Hawaii or New York. Probably add Maryland after Hogan is gone (though the GOP has a couple of candidates who could be the new Hogan).

Right no the Democrats can no win a statewide election in Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and probably not Alabama after Jones. The other deep south states I do not include as the floor is so high and turnout differences and/or a flawed GOP candidate would have an opening for a Democrat.

Now that I said that I bet we will see at least one of California, Hawaii, New York, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, or Alabama elect a candidate of the minority party in the next couple of cycles lol.

For now, I also don't think it's possible for Democrats to win a statewide election in Arkansas or Tennessee, barring a Moore-type scenario. Those states have a much smaller black population than Mississippi, Louisiana or South Carolina, and lack the Democratic downballot strength that West Virginia still has. Also, what about Nebraska and South Dakota for Democrats, and Virginia for Republicans? Even Utah, despite Trump's unpopularity there, is probably unwinnable for Democrats.

You are correct about Arkansas. Tennessee is a borderline case. Theoretically a Democrat could landslide in Knox and Hamilton County plus the Bredesen areas and plausibly pull out a win . But that is so unlikely that I may as well place it on the list. Though Kentucky was in a somewhat similar situation and it ended up happening.


Yes, South Dakota will not happen. Nebraska, you could plausibly imagine both the Lincoln and Omaha metro areas dominating for a Democratic candidate and the Democrat attempting to narrow rural margins a bit. Kind of similar to Kansas.

Utah: Pre-2016 impossible. 2016-2020- Highly unlikely. Post 2020: You can imagine a situation of Salt Lake County 2 to 1 Margin. And do not say that can not happen, look at Jefferson countyin Kentucky last year and Salt Lake County has a far higher share of the population. After that the Democrat would have to certainly carry Weber County and get at least 45% in Davis County. They would landslide in Summitt and Grand counties but they do not matter that much in terms of raw votes.

Virginia the path for the GOP is having to dominate Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach City by landslide margins in addition to their gigantic rural margins which may have to even larger. I backed off a bit about Loudoun County being able to vote for a state level Republican. It has grown so fast and so much more diverse even since 2016. But maybe a Hogan type Republican could flip it. But th GOP would have to at least run in the mid-40s in Loudoun minimum.

For the state in this thread it is actually a fairly easy map to imagine for a Democrat to win Missouri. Literally just campaign smart and hard in the suburban and exurban counties and make a case in Greene County and you have a path. 

If Galloway wins I would imagine that she would do a little better in St. Charles relative to state margin and would win Platte and Clay counties by landslides and probably would have to carry Greene County again. I do not anticipate she would carry Ste Genevieve again. Her double digit in raw vote victory in Ste Gen was a last hurrah. She probably will not do that well in those random rural counties around Boone County she won or came close in. That probably had more to do with name ID and people in those areas may be more inclined for government so knew more about the auditors race. Maybe she would win Cole County agan though.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bill de Blasio is the one Democrat that could lose to a Republican in New York state

[brucejoel99]

Bill de Blasio is the one Democrat that could lose to a Republican in New York state

Though it still depends on the Republican, of course.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t think Parson is losing honestly. His coronavirus response, while bad, hasn’t made him nearly as unpopular as Bevin was. I can’t see him doing much worse than Holcomb, to be honest.

[Hope For A New Era]

I don’t think Parson is losing honestly. His coronavirus response, while bad, hasn’t made him nearly as unpopular as Bevin was. I can’t see him doing much worse than Holcomb, to be honest.

I had my hopes up for a while, but this seems to be where things are going.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1262601363936215041

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1262603015044902912

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/bycrystalthomas/status/1262603844468367360

It just looks like a way for him to satisfy his creditors after the 2016 campaign and the 2018 fiasco.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/bycrystalthomas/status/1262603844468367360

It just looks like a way for him to satisfy his creditors after the 2016 campaign and the 2018 fiasco.

Only the deadline to run in the primary has passed, but independents still have until August 18th.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/bycrystalthomas/status/1262603844468367360

It just looks like a way for him to satisfy his creditors after the 2016 campaign and the 2018 fiasco.

Only the deadline to run in the primary has passed, but independents still have until August 18th.

Correct.

The only way to defeat Parson is either 1) Have Saundra McDowell win the primary or 2) have Eric Greitens run as an independent.

[Left Wing]

Is Greitens running? He edited his site but it still says payed for by Greitens for Missouri. If he is running he better start collecting signatures fast.