Joe Biden wins the 2020 Presidential Election

[2016]

Good TL I am curious who is running on the Republican Side.

[2016]

Very, very doubtful DeSantis would endorse Pence especially this early and with Rubio still in the Race.

[2016]

Can Harris and Haley survive after losing the first 3 Contests? You certainly did add some wrinkles here by declaring Buttigieg & Pence Winners in Iowa.

[2016]

Wow Nevada was really, really close on the D Side. It looks like Haley might take the Delegate lead after South Carolina and Harris probably will as well. If Rubio doesn't have a good showing on ST he should drop out and endorse her.

BTW, it would be nice if you can give some TX & CA Polling before ST.

[2016]

This is very interesting! Really Rubio, Cruz, Baker and Trump Jr. need to drop out to help beat Pence because he can't win the GE. On the Democratic Side Harris is now the Odds-On Favourite to win the  Nomination. Well, she is the VP so no surprise there.

[2016]

Why doesn't Rubio drop out and endorse Haley? Florida is "Winner-Take-All" Delegate State (122 Delegates) and Ohio is Winner-Take-All as well (82 Delegates). If Pence wins either one of these two he has the Nomination. If Haley would win both it could be a Dogfight until the end. The close Michigan Result suggests Haley has a shot there.

[2016]

I'm going on a limp and say Haley wins Florida & Arizona (large Hispanic Population) with Rubio OUT and endorsing her, Pence narrowly wins Ohio and Illinois is a total jump ball.

And then we have to see what comes next. Haley has probably a good chance winning in Georgia while Pence might win Wisconsin.

I am also a bit flummoxed why Haley isn't attacking Pence over the COVID-19 Response and make this an issue with the Voters. She could easily say that the DNC, President Biden and VP Harris would carpet bomb Pence with negative Ads in the Fall Campaign because he was the Head of the Corona Task Force in 2020.

[2016]

Wow, it appears Haley might have the edge now! Great timeline, keep it up!

Rubio dropping out gave her a boost it seems.

[2016]

Nikki Haley 52 Delegates behind former VP Mike Pence. She needs to hit Pence on the 2020 COVID-19 Response particularly in the Northeastern States like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island.

Here is how I think the remaining Primaries could go down:

Oregon - Haley
New Mexico - Haley
Montana - Pence
South Dakota - Pence
Nebraska - Pence
Kansas - Pence
Wisconsin - Toss up if former Speaker Ryan, former Governor Walker endorse her otherwise Pence will win
Indiana - Pence
Kentucky - Pence but might depend what McConnell does
West Virginia - Pence
Pennsylvania - Haley
New York - Haley
New Jersey - Haley
Connecticut - Haley
Rhode Island - Haley
Maryland - Haley
Delaware - Haley
District of Columbia - Haley

This could easily also go to the Convention.

[2016]

All I am saying is this: Not very happy with this outcome on the Republican Side of things.
The only chance Haley has now is to keep Pence under that 1.276 Number.
That would probably require her to win New Jersey, New Mexico and Oregon. I can see her winning Oregon (close proximity to CA which she won) and NM (Hispanic Population). To win New Jersey she needs Donald Trump Jr. to come out for her endorsing her Campaign.

[2016]

All I am saying is this: Not very happy with this outcome on the Republican Side of things.
The only chance Haley has now is to keep Pence under that 1.276 Number.
That would probably require her to win New Jersey, New Mexico and Oregon. I can see her winning Oregon (close proximity to CA which she won) and NM (Hispanic Population). To win New Jersey she needs Donald Trump Jr. to come out for her endorsing her Campaign.

That does make sense but I do think Pence (former VP at this point) would win the Republican primary. He's better known and likely would win the primary. Haley overall is a better candidate and would have done better in the general election than Pence.

Not sure about about that! The way you started the TL with Biden winning the Presidency + Trump/Pence Coronavirus Response I would have thought Pence would be damaged goods in 2024 which I think he will for real if Pence and Haley, both run for the Presidency in 2024.

[2016]

All I am saying is this: Not very happy with this outcome on the Republican Side of things.
The only chance Haley has now is to keep Pence under that 1.276 Number.
That would probably require her to win New Jersey, New Mexico and Oregon. I can see her winning Oregon (close proximity to CA which she won) and NM (Hispanic Population). To win New Jersey she needs Donald Trump Jr. to come out for her endorsing her Campaign.

That does make sense but I do think Pence (former VP at this point) would win the Republican primary. He's better known and likely would win the primary. Haley overall is a better candidate and would have done better in the general election than Pence.

Not sure about about that! The way you started the TL with Biden winning the Presidency + Trump/Pence Coronavirus Response I would have thought Pence would be damaged goods in 2024 which I think he will for real if Pence and Haley, both run for the Presidency in 2024.

Yes, that is true but most people blame the pandemic response on Trump not Pence. Also, Republican voters overall do support Trump and I think would also support Pence. Republicans do support Pence.

Why would people only blame Trump for the Coronavirus Response when Pence was VP and Head of the COVID-19 Task Force. It doesn't pass the smell test mate!

[2016]

Pence needs 100 more Delegates
- New Mexico has 22
- Montana has 27
- South Dakota has 29
- New Jersey has 59
- District of Columbia has 19

If Pence gets MT, SD, NJ he has 1.291 Delegates (15 more than he needs).
Assuming Haley gets NM and D. C. (The District is not voting for Pence. Too many Establishment Folks there who endorsed Haley) she has 912 Delegates.

Conclusion: There could still be a Floor Fight at the RNC and Pence absoutely has to win NJ.

If Donald Trump Jr. comes out and maybe Trumps Daughter Ivanka could this swing New Jersey?
Pence only has a 7-Point lead there looking at Polling.

New Jersey is interesting in the matter than you have the D. C. & Philly Media Markets South and New York Media Market North. In between Pence will dominate but what happens to those two big Markets. Haley won Maryland in the South. New Jersey could be really, really close and I wouldn't be surprised if Haley doesn't drop out immediatedly. If she pulls off an Minor Upset she still has a chance to win this.

Pence needs 1.276 Delegates on the first Ballot. If it goes to a 2nd Ballot all the other Delegates are Free to vote whom they want to.

[2016]

If Haley announces a good Running Mate like either of the two Florida Senators Marco Rubio or Rick Scott she has a chance at the Convention to sway Delegates her way after the First Ballot.

Selection of the Running Mate will make the Difference in winning at the RNC one way or the other.

She also would have a Chance in the General by picking one of them and locking down Florida.

Mike Pence has no chance in the General at this point.

[2016]

If Pence is the Nominee Republicans can pack their bags.

Haley would have a chance by picking Rubio as VP and then win FL (31), AZ (12) and Wisconsin (10). That would get her to 274.

[2016]

Why did the RNC choose Pittsburgh as Convention Site? They should have chosen Phoenix, AZ.

[2016]

Why did the RNC choose Pittsburgh as Convention Site? They should have chosen Phoenix, AZ.

The RNC chose Pittsburgh as the Convention Site because they are focusing on the midwest over the southeast. They are hoping to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc. GOP can not win the election without the midwest, it is just impossible.

That depends on the Candidate though. With Pence as Nominee I agree the Midwest is their only Option. With Haley it would be a totally different Scenario I think.

If Pence does get the Nomination I expect Haley and other Establishment Republicans to completely run away from Pence.

Haley hasn't even indicated that she would back the eventual Nominee. That tells you a lot.

[2016]

Why did the RNC choose Pittsburgh as Convention Site? They should have chosen Phoenix, AZ.

The RNC chose Pittsburgh as the Convention Site because they are focusing on the midwest over the southeast. They are hoping to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc. GOP can not win the election without the midwest, it is just impossible.

That depends on the Candidate though. With Pence as Nominee I agree the Midwest is their only Option. With Haley it would be a totally different Scenario I think.

If Pence does get the Nomination I expect Haley and other Establishment Republicans to completely run away from Pence.

Haley hasn't even indicated that she would back the eventual Nominee. That tells you a lot.

That's true. Most Republicans suspect that Pence will be the nominee as he is much closer to 1,276 delegates and Cruz endorsed Pence, awhile ago. Again, it is still possible that Haley wins the nomination but Pence is totally favored.

Haley needs to reveal her Running Mate soon to sway some Delegates. Will it be enough? That remains to be seen.
My Suggestions would be:
Florida Senator Rick Scott or Marco Rubio
Former Ohio Governor John Kasich
Former Arizona Governor Doug Ducey?
Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker

[2016]

Yup, this Election is decided.
Congrats Pres-elect Harris.
Excatly what I said would happen if Republicans would nominate Mike Pence.

Looking forward to 2026 then where Florida could by the way their 1st Latina Governor assuming DeSantis Lt. Governor Nunez runs.

[2016]

Pence is losing in a landslide BUT what about the Senate. Even if Harris wins big the Democrats do not have a lot of targets. Florida maybe but I doubt Rick Scott is going to lose being a former 2-Time Governor in the State. The Dems do not have a big bench there.

And they also won't beat Mike Brown in Indiana even with Buttigieg on the Ticket or Cramer in ND, Hawley in MO.

Meanwhile they have to defend Seats in Montana (Tester) and West Virginia (Manchin) assuming he did run for Reelection. If he choose to retire that's a safe Pick Up for Republicans with Rep. McKinney or Rep. Mooney or Rep. Miller.

[2016]

I HIGHLY doubt Bernie would withdraw his support, especially since all of this has been in the public eye for over 5 years ITTL. Also, a polling shift that big is unlikely for an old scandal like this, Democrats would not withdraw their support because of this.

This is teetering on the edge of being unrealistic...

Yes, I think you are right that Bernie & AOC would not withdraw their support. I'll change that.

But, I do think a polling shift is not too unlikely. Harris is a controversial figure and progressive Democrats and even some independent might not come out to vote in the 2024 General Election, especially in various swing states across the country, especially among the African American community in states like North Carolina and Georgia.

I think with that controversy Harris will lose GA, NC, FL so you are spot on with the Map.
However the only way Pence can win would be peeing of either Minnesota or Michigan.

Harris' Controversy DOES LIMIT Democrats winning Senate Seats (their only realistic Pick Up is FL) and they could very well lose West Virginia (Manchin, assuming he is running for Reection) and Montana (Tester assuming he is running as well).

Harris could face a Republican House and Senate. That Scandal coming out so close to the Election isn't very good. Reminds me of Comey in 2016.  

[2016]

I think Harris still wins it narrowly BUT Republicans regaining the Senate with West Virginia and Montana and holding Florida.

[2016]

Looks like Harris lost too much Ground with her Scandal. She did get Arizona & New Hampshire back from Pence after her Debate Win but that might not be enough. Will anyone concede on Election Night. There could be lawsuits and Recounts all over the place here. Pence strength in the Midwest is now playing obvious dividends.

[2016]

Not a great sign for the Denocrats that several Senate Races in the Midwest are still out like OH, WI, MI at 10pm

[2016]

Republicans are going to win the Senate I think. At worst they have a 50-50 Tie if they can hold TX, FL and MT.
The Midwest could cost Harris the Presideny!