Is Susan Collins or Thom Tillis more likely to lose in November 2020?
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  Is Susan Collins or Thom Tillis more likely to lose in November 2020?		 « previous next »
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Question: Which Republican Senator is more likely to lose in November 2020?
#1
Susan Collins		  
#2
Thom Tillis		  
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Total Voters: 62

Author Topic: Is Susan Collins or Thom Tillis more likely to lose in November 2020?  (Read 19271 times)
Ogre Mage
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« on: March 29, 2020, 09:32:56 PM »
« edited: March 29, 2020, 10:37:18 PM by Ogre Mage »
Vote and discuss.

Collins is more entrenched due to her two decades in the U.S. Senate but she has a considerably less favorable political environment in her state.  Tillis is only a first term senator who won in a GOP wave year but he has a better in-state environment for Republicans.

It is not clear to me if Sara Gideon or Cal Cunningham is a stronger challenger.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2020, 09:42:10 PM »
Hot take: Collins.
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« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2020, 09:52:46 PM »
Collins at this point
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2020, 10:00:33 PM »
Collins
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Heir of Camelot
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« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2020, 10:27:31 PM »
My gut is that Collins is toast.
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2020, 10:34:27 PM »
Tillis, I don't think that Collins is close to doomed, and even if she has bad approvals, so does Tillis, yet Collins has a brand that makes it far likelier for her to outrun the presidential baseline than Tillis. So, Tillis is likelier to lose.
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« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2020, 10:36:42 PM »
Collins, by a tiny margin.
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gerritcole
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« Reply #7 on: March 29, 2020, 11:15:10 PM »
tillis - he faces better dem opposition
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2020, 11:37:23 PM »
Tillis, narrowly, but both races are Toss-Ups.
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« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2020, 12:25:50 AM »
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Esteemed Jimmy
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« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2020, 12:30:48 AM »
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Intell
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« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2020, 12:37:11 AM »
Tillis.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2020, 01:55:02 AM »
Tough call, but I think Tillis is slightly more likely to be ousted.
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chibul
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« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2020, 04:57:29 AM »
If Hillary Clinton were president right now, I think Susan Collins would win by 30 points and Sara Gideon would feel it would be a waste of time to challenge Susan Collins and her challenger would be a local businessman or maybe a state legislature.

Hell if Jeb Bush were president she'd probably still be in a great spot.

Donald Trump has made it absolutely impossible for a republican to brand themselves as a moderate. You can say you are a moderate, but the voters aren't going to believe it. I think

You can get away with having a terrible approval rating in a Federal election, which is why I think people are wasting their time and money donating to Amy McGrath but a bad approval rating in a purplish blue state will get you replaced.

North Carolina is going to vote to the right of Maine so because of that Collins is the more likely one to go.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #14 on: March 30, 2020, 07:55:56 AM »
Collins, but both are solidly Tilt D.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #15 on: March 30, 2020, 08:53:57 AM »
Tillis. Collins is a much stronger incumbent.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #16 on: March 30, 2020, 08:56:49 AM »
Think they both lose atm but Collins loses by more bc Maine is much more elastic than NC.
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Lambsbread
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« Reply #17 on: March 30, 2020, 09:12:33 AM »
Yes.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: March 30, 2020, 09:29:12 AM »
Hm, they both seem like toast right now but I could see Collins losing worse than Tillis
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here2view
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« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2020, 10:06:27 AM »
Probably Collins, but it's close.

I don't think there will be too many people who split their ticket. It's likelier for Democrats to win Maine at large (Lean D IMO) than it is for them to win North Carolina (Tilt R IMO) so that helps out Tillis.

Both races are tossups.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #20 on: March 30, 2020, 01:57:46 PM »
Narrowly Collins.
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« Reply #21 on: March 30, 2020, 02:46:08 PM »
Collins is doomed
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Storr
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« Reply #22 on: March 30, 2020, 02:49:26 PM »
Collins, especially after her "Trump learned his lesson" comments post impeachment acquittal.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #23 on: March 30, 2020, 02:53:01 PM »
Quote from: Storr on March 30, 2020, 02:49:26 PM
Collins, especially after her "Trump learned his lesson" comments post impeachment acquittal.

This. Hopefully this was the final nail in her political life coffin. The Kavanaugh vote already exposed her for being a fake moderate.
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