Rank the 5 people most likely to be elected president in 2024

[Mr. Morden]

Under normal circumstances, Biden would be at the top of this list, since he's the presumptive nominee of the challenger party, and is currently leading in the polls for this year.  So even if he's "only" ~50% likely to win this time, and then ~50% likely to win reelection, that would put him at a 25% chance to be elected in 2024.

Problem is, he's really old, and seems unlikely to run for a second term.  (Not even a sure thing that he'll make it through *one* term.)

So what do you think?  Who are the five people most likely to be elected POTUS in 2024?

[dw93]

Ask me again on November 4th as it's way too soon to say. My answer will depend on the results of 2020.

[brucejoel99]

1. Joe Biden (40%)
2. Kamala Harris (25%)
3. Elizabeth Warren (15%)
4. Mike Pence (10%)
5. Nikki Haley (5%)

6. All others (5%)

[Nightcore Nationalist]

In no particular order:

Kamala Harris (Biden's veep)
Pete Buttigieg
Tom Cotton
Josh Hawley
Alexandria Occasio-Cortez (not joking)
Nikki Haley.

I know that's 6 but I wanted an even 3/3

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'll do 3 Republicans and 3 Democrats as well, since it's almost certain to be an open election and way too early to speculate as to which party would be favored:

Republicans:
Nikki Haley
Mike Pence
Ron DeSantis

Democrats:
Kamala Harris
Andrew Cuomo
Gretchen Whitmer

[OSR stands with Israel]

Joe Biden
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Gretchen Whitmer
Elizabeth Warren

[😥]

Joe Biden
Amy Klobuchar
Kamala Harris
Josh Hawley
Ron DeSantis

[MABA 2020]

Call me crazy but..

1. Kamala Harris
2. Joe Biden
3. Donald Trump
4. Elizabeth Warren
5. Don Jr.

Obvious it's too early to make serious predictions because the circumstances of 2024 are impossible to know, so the only predictions you can make are wild predictions

[Cassandra]

1. One of the Trump Kids
2. Biden's VP
3. Biden
4. Trump
5. Some other Republican

[Del Tachi]

1.  Biden; for the obvious reasons mentioned by OP. 
2.  Biden's VP, who will have an inside track to Dem nomination even if Biden loses in 2020.
3.  Pence, who is the mostly likely GOP nominee if Trump win's a second term
4.  DeSantis
5.  Newsom

[Coldstream]

1. Kamala Harris
2. Nikki Haley
3. Mike Pompeo
4. Amy Klobuchar
5. Andrew Cuomo

More of a guess than an actual prediction at this point.

[Real Texan Politics]

Democrats:
Michelle Obama
AOC
Kamala Harris
Chelsea Clinton
Oprah Winfrey

Republicans:
Mike Pence
Nikki Haley
Donald Trump Jr.
Ron DeSantis
Mike Pompeo

Honorable mentions: Andrew Yang (D) and Ben Shapiro (R). Both could make it towards the top with their own energetic bases, but neither of them have a good chance of getting elected, let alone being their respective parties' nominees.

[brucejoel99]

Democrats:
Michelle Obama

No. She doesn't want to run for office. She has said this multiple times.

[morgankingsley]

Pence, Biden, Harris, Warren, and I'm going to go out there and say Pete

[Grassroots]

Dems:
Biden (2nd term)
Harris
Buttigieg
Whitmer

Reps:
Pence
Haley
Hawley

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz is definitely running for Prez if Trump is defeated.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

If Biden wins:

- Biden (of course)
- Harris, Klobuchar, Cortez Mastro (my top 3 VP-picks for Biden)
- Donald Trump, as I can imagine him running again if defeated, or Pence

If Trump wins:

- Pence
- another member of the Trump family
- whoever gets picked as Biden's VP

[Orser67]

Joe Biden and Mike Pence, and after that there's very little separation from the rest of the field. Here's an unordered top 20:

Biden, Pence, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Klobuchar, Duckworth, Cortez Masto, Whitmer, Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, AOC, Pompeo, Haley, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Donald Jr., DeSantis, ...Trump (pulling a Cleveland)

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Cruz is definitely running for Prez if Trump is defeated.

I think this is pretty likely (as he's not popular and will have a tough time in 2024) but he won't get anywhere in the primaries.

[clever but short]

Joe Biden
Mike Pence
Kamala Harris
Donald Trump Jr
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

[Burke Bro]

1. Mike Pence
2. A name we're not familiar with yet
3. Kamala Harris
4. Elizabeth Warren
5. Mayor Pete

[Grassroots]

Cruz is definitely running for Prez if Trump is defeated.

Why do you love Cruz so much. Also you didn't even answer the question.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Cruz is definitely running for Prez if Trump is defeated.

I think this is pretty likely (as he's not popular and will have a tough time in 2024) but he won't get anywhere in the primaries.

Cruz is running either way (it's his last shot) but he's going to drop out after an embarrassing 10th place finish in Iowa, if he even makes it that far.

[brucejoel99]

Cruz is definitely running for Prez if Trump is defeated.

I think this is pretty likely (as he's not popular and will have a tough time in 2024) but he won't get anywhere in the primaries.

Cruz is running either way (it's his last shot) but he's going to drop out after an embarrassing 10th place finish in Iowa, if he even makes it that far.

Truly Rick Santorum 2.0

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

1. Donald Trump
2. Joe Biden
3. Donald Trump
4. Joe Biden
5. Donald Trump