Joe Biden's case

[American2020]

Perhaps the Democrats’ biggest risk is under the surface, in Trump’s big advantage in backers who are “very” enthusiastic about supporting him. Strong enthusiasm for a candidate can help boost turnout on Election Day, a must-have particularly for Democrats, who rely more on motivating less-frequent voters to come to the polls.

While trailing Trump by 29 points in high-level enthusiasm, Biden makes up some of the difference with those who are “somewhat” enthusiastic. But he still trails Trump by 12 points in the combined measure, 74 vs. 86%.

There’s déjà vu in these results: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton found herself in largely the same position four years ago. She, too, had a slim lead among Democrats for the nomination and ran essentially evenly with Trump among registered voters. And she lagged in enthusiasm, with a low of 32% very enthusiastic in September 2016. Biden is 8 points under that mark now.

Bad as Biden’s enthusiasm score is, we’ve seen worse: As few as 17% of former Republican presidential nominee and Arizona Sen. John McCain’s supporters were very enthusiastic about his candidacy in 2008, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney saw 23% in 2012. The poor omen for Biden is that Clinton, McCain and Romney all lost.

Is it time to worry about Biden's perspectives ?
How should Biden boost enthousiasm for a massive turnout on November ?

[Lord Halifax]

Perhaps the Democrats’ biggest risk is under the surface, in Trump’s big advantage in backers who are “very” enthusiastic about supporting him. Strong enthusiasm for a candidate can help boost turnout on Election Day, a must-have particularly for Democrats, who rely more on motivating less-frequent voters to come to the polls.

While trailing Trump by 29 points in high-level enthusiasm, Biden makes up some of the difference with those who are “somewhat” enthusiastic. But he still trails Trump by 12 points in the combined measure, 74 vs. 86%.

There’s déjà vu in these results: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton found herself in largely the same position four years ago. She, too, had a slim lead among Democrats for the nomination and ran essentially evenly with Trump among registered voters. And she lagged in enthusiasm, with a low of 32% very enthusiastic in September 2016. Biden is 8 points under that mark now.

Bad as Biden’s enthusiasm score is, we’ve seen worse: As few as 17% of former Republican presidential nominee and Arizona Sen. John McCain’s supporters were very enthusiastic about his candidacy in 2008, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney saw 23% in 2012. The poor omen for Biden is that Clinton, McCain and Romney all lost.

Is it time to worry about Biden's perspectives ?
How should Biden boost enthousiasm for a massive turnout on November ?

Why post quotes without a link?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Joe Biden's case is "I'm not Trump" and, frankly, that's enough for me.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Truth.

https://twitter.com/ArmandoNDK/status/1244223972906065922

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Truth.

https://twitter.com/ArmandoNDK/status/1244223972906065922

A very small group as opposed to the whole of Sanders' supporters and other people identifying themselves with the left.

[Podgy the Bear]

No need to worry.    Other than the fact that he can provide moral support, Biden's not in any position to do a whole lot more at this time.  And he's doing fine with it.

Trump is making Biden's case very well. 

[TWTown]

Truth.

https://twitter.com/ArmandoNDK/status/1244223972906065922

Wow, the lack of self-awareness in that tweet is real.

[SnowLabrador]

Yes, it's very worrying. I think Trump wins in a near-landslide.

[redjohn]

Democratic fanboys are going to be surprised when "I'm not Trump" doesn't win the election for Biden. Are people really this delusional? Biden could win in a squeaker, but anybody who thinks Joe walks away with this clearly isn't paying attention. In Biden's best case scenario, he wins the NPV by ~4 points, which would be a close electoral college victory.

In 2016, the DNC bootlickers were so sure that Hillary being "not Trump" would allow her to win Texas and Georgia. News flash: Biden's more of a disaster than HRC ever was. People watch Biden and walk away thinking the man's senile, regardless of whether he is or isn't.

Biden's numbers are only going to drop as we get closer to November. Trump's an incumbent executive who will end up lying so much about his own record that many people will forget his horrible handling of this crisis, and Biden doesn't have the skills to push him on his record. Joe will lose.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Democratic fanboys are going to be surprised when "I'm not Trump" doesn't win the election for Biden. Are people really this delusional? Biden could win in a squeaker, but anybody who thinks Joe walks away with this clearly isn't paying attention. In Biden's best case scenario, he wins the NPV by ~4 points, which would be a close electoral college victory.

In 2016, the DNC bootlickers were so sure that Hillary being "not Trump" would allow her to win Texas and Georgia. News flash: Biden's more of a disaster than HRC ever was. People watch Biden and walk away thinking the man's senile, regardless of whether he is or isn't.

Biden's numbers are only going to drop as we get closer to November. Trump's an incumbent executive who will end up lying so much about his own record that many people will forget his horrible handling of this crisis, and Biden doesn't have the skills to push him on his record. Joe will lose.

RNC approves this message.

[dw93]

Biden needs to be going over the FDR 1932 or Reagan 1980 playbook as far as inspiring voters and winning over an incumbent in a time of crisis is concerned. He certainly won't win by as big of a margin as they did, but he could inspire/convince enough people to unseat Trump.

If he goes the Dole/Kerry/Romney/H.Clinton route and just runs as "I'm not my opponent. My opponent sucks, I don't so vote for me," he's gonna lose this thing.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Biden has been killing it in the primary.  Yuuuuuuge turnout and dramatically outperforming his polls.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Biden needs to be going over the FDR 1932 or Reagan 1980 playbook as far as inspiring voters and winning over an incumbent in a time of crisis is concerned. He certainly won't win by as big of a margin as they did, but he could inspire/convince enough people to unseat Trump.

If he goes the Dole/Kerry/Romney/H.Clinton route and just runs as "I'm not my opponent. My opponent sucks, I don't so vote for me," he's gonna lose this thing.

From a strategic point of view, I agree with this.  Candidates who've run on the "I'm not so-and-so!" generally lose.

[redjohn]

Democratic fanboys are going to be surprised when "I'm not Trump" doesn't win the election for Biden. Are people really this delusional? Biden could win in a squeaker, but anybody who thinks Joe walks away with this clearly isn't paying attention. In Biden's best case scenario, he wins the NPV by ~4 points, which would be a close electoral college victory.

In 2016, the DNC bootlickers were so sure that Hillary being "not Trump" would allow her to win Texas and Georgia. News flash: Biden's more of a disaster than HRC ever was. People watch Biden and walk away thinking the man's senile, regardless of whether he is or isn't.

Biden's numbers are only going to drop as we get closer to November. Trump's an incumbent executive who will end up lying so much about his own record that many people will forget his horrible handling of this crisis, and Biden doesn't have the skills to push him on his record. Joe will lose.

RNC approves this message.

Yep, we should avoid any criticism of Biden until after he loses badly to Trump. Clearly any criticism of senile Joe is RNC propaganda. What world do #resisters live in?

[chibul]

Who the candidate is is not going to matter one iota in this election. It could be Bernie Sanders, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, or Martin O Malley. Normally it would matter but the election will be decided on how much damage did the coronavirus do. If in early November things are back to normal, kids are back in school, unemployment is way down, people are working again, and the stock market has fully recovered then I think Trump wins all of the major battleground state’s. If the economy has turned to sh**t, people don’t have jobs, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and we are still in lockdown then Biden wins all of the battleground states. I think this could be a near landslide, I’m just not sure which direction.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Democratic fanboys are going to be surprised when "I'm not Trump" doesn't win the election for Biden. Are people really this delusional? Biden could win in a squeaker, but anybody who thinks Joe walks away with this clearly isn't paying attention. In Biden's best case scenario, he wins the NPV by ~4 points, which would be a close electoral college victory.

In 2016, the DNC bootlickers were so sure that Hillary being "not Trump" would allow her to win Texas and Georgia. News flash: Biden's more of a disaster than HRC ever was. People watch Biden and walk away thinking the man's senile, regardless of whether he is or isn't.

Biden's numbers are only going to drop as we get closer to November. Trump's an incumbent executive who will end up lying so much about his own record that many people will forget his horrible handling of this crisis, and Biden doesn't have the skills to push him on his record. Joe will lose.

RNC approves this message.

Yep, we should avoid any criticism of Biden until after he loses badly to Trump. Clearly any criticism of senile Joe is RNC propaganda. What world do #resisters live in?

Joe is not senile.

[Lord Halifax]

Democratic fanboys are going to be surprised when "I'm not Trump" doesn't win the election for Biden. Are people really this delusional? Biden could win in a squeaker, but anybody who thinks Joe walks away with this clearly isn't paying attention. In Biden's best case scenario, he wins the NPV by ~4 points, which would be a close electoral college victory.

In 2016, the DNC bootlickers were so sure that Hillary being "not Trump" would allow her to win Texas and Georgia. News flash: Biden's more of a disaster than HRC ever was. People watch Biden and walk away thinking the man's senile, regardless of whether he is or isn't.

Biden's numbers are only going to drop as we get closer to November. Trump's an incumbent executive who will end up lying so much about his own record that many people will forget his horrible handling of this crisis, and Biden doesn't have the skills to push him on his record. Joe will lose.

RNC approves this message.

Yep, we should avoid any criticism of Biden until after he loses badly to Trump. Clearly any criticism of senile Joe is RNC propaganda. What world do #resisters live in?

Joe is not senile.

See the bolded part.

[brucejoel99]

Biden's case isn't "I'm not Trump." It's that he's the non-Trump: calm, reassuring, familiar, comfortable.

And a sh*tton of people want the non-Trump.

[Pyro]

Biden is following the HRC playbook and will lose as a result of it.

Democratic doners wanted to keep Bernie out even if it meant a Trump re-election, and they'll get it.

[brucejoel99]

Biden is following the HRC playbook and will lose as a result of it.

Democratic doners wanted to keep Bernie out even if it meant a Trump re-election, and they'll get it.

Let's see, Biden is much more liked than Hillary was, & voter turnout for him in the primaries has been hitting record highs in many states (especially in those that Bernie won in 2016 but Biden has now won in 2020). But sure, he's Hillary 2.0. Definitely.

[brucejoel99]

Biden is following the HRC playbook and will lose as a result of it.

Democratic doners wanted to keep Bernie out even if it meant a Trump re-election, and they'll get it.

Let's see, Biden is much more liked than Hillary was, & voter turnout for him in the primaries has been hitting record highs in many states (especially in those that Bernie won in 2016 but Biden has now won in 2020). But sure, he's Hillary 2.0. Definitely.

Much less hated does not = much more liked

Irrelevant if it means he's getting significantly more votes.

[Bomster]

As a democratic voter, my desire is simply for a candidate to beat Trump. At first I didn't buy into that argument in regards to Joe Biden. Although I liked the guy as a person (that might have changed with the whole Tara Reade thing, I pray it's not true but it is true Biden has always had a lack of understanding about personal space...) and as a Vice President, to me Biden seemed to lack the energy to carry the Democratic Party to victory. His debate performances inspired little confidence in me, and I had already become smitten with Bernie Sanders and his platform. To me Biden just didn't seem exciting enough to beat Trump, and I saw Bernie as the most electable due to the zeal of his supporters and his popularity not only with Democrats but also Independents. Then Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada came. Biden got crushed in the first two, placing 4th and 5th, practically a death sentence for a candidate who once was the frontrunner. Bernie surged into first place nationally while Biden dwindled. Although he put up a respectable showing in Nevada, it was absolutely eclipsed by the utter landslide Bernie enjoyed there. To me it seemed that because of the nature of Bernie's victories and the scale of Joe's defeats, Bernie had proven himself to me to be the strongest candidate to take on Trump. However my Bernie supporting mind had ignored two troubling signs. Despite a smash victory in Nevada, Bernie's victories in Iowa and New Hampshire were close, too close. The youth surge that many had predicted would power strong victories for Bernie simply didn't happen. Joe won South Carolina, which was expected. But then Super Tuesday happened. Whether it was luck or political genius, Biden CRUSHED it on Super Tuesday. He won bigtime in states like Virginia and North Carolina, states he once tied with Bernie in, and even won victories in states Bernie was expected to win like Minnesota, Massachusetts, Maine, and Texas. Even Vermont was far closer than expected. The illusion that Bernie was the strongest candidate was shattered for me. It became clear that Biden was indeed the strongest candidate, and that he could excite the Democratic base to turnout. This new energized Biden was sure to beat Trump, as he easily pushed Bernie aside in states like Michigan and Missouri. However, this was short-lived as coronavirus took over all aspects of life itself, and Biden got pushed to the sidelines as Trump's efforts to contain the virus took center stage. Since then that energized Biden has disappeared. He's been stuck in his home, conducting interviews that raise doubts about his mental condition, as well as being accused of rape, which has badly shaken my respect for him, even though I don't believe it is true. Despite people like Rachel Bitecofer (check out her forecasts shes cool) predicting a victory for Democrats in battleground states due to negative partisanship towards Trump I just can't see Biden winning now. To me it seems like his candidacy lacks excitement and energy, it doesn't really promise much to voters beyond "I'm not Trump", and that's not going to be enough. Additionally younger people despise Biden, several fellow Bernie supporters at my college said they would never vote for Joe, and although the youth vote turned out to be inconsequential in the primaries, we need every vote to beat Trump since Trump has his Republican base more excited than ever simply by just being on the ballot. With his gaffes, questions about his mental state, and his baggage, including this rape accusation which is surely going to make the Democrats look hypocritical after Brett Cavanaugh, as well as Trump projecting himself as a leader throughout this crisis which is endearing to Americans as indicated by approval ratings, I just can't see Biden winning. I like Joe, I respect him. But I feel like we may have made a grave mistake. I can totally see Americans looking at both Trump and Biden and choosing Trump out of a concern that Biden can't handle the presidency due to questions about his mental health. It sucks, since I really want Trump out. And I like (or liked, since he may be a rapist) Joe, but I just can't see us winning at this point. We've screwed the pooch and it's barely April. It's just so tragic.

[Mr. Smith]

Biden is following the HRC playbook and will lose as a result of it.

Democratic doners wanted to keep Bernie out even if it meant a Trump re-election, and they'll get it.

Let's see, Biden is much more liked than Hillary was, & voter turnout for him in the primaries has been hitting record highs in many states (especially in those that Bernie won in 2016 but Biden has now won in 2020). But sure, he's Hillary 2.0. Definitely.

Kerry defeated Gore on all those counts too! Goodness, Kerry even outdid Gore in NH on both counts...and NH was nearly a Bradley state!

[blueandred]

There’s a clear difference between trying to get a 3rd term for your party vs facing an incumbent from the other party, at least in terms of framing the campaign. Biden can run against Trump’s policies, while Clinton had to run on his rhetoric.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Biden is following the HRC playbook and will lose as a result of it.

Democratic doners wanted to keep Bernie out even if it meant a Trump re-election, and they'll get it.

Bernie lost to Hillary and now Biden. If anything the Bernie playbook is a losing one.