2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[SevenEleven]

TIL Austin white liberals are a minority group?

Is that a 3 way split of central Austin ?

Out of necessity, to create three Hispanic majority districts in Bexar.

well prioritizing hispanic representation is just as nonpartisan as prioritizing white representation.  Racial gerrymandering has partisan outcomes, and you did significantly more than needed legally.

Its not, though.

Finally we agree.  It's not nonpartisan

What? Minority voting rights and representation access should not be a partisan issue.

What? White voting rights and representation access should not be a partisan issue.

The fact is, when you gerrymander for one racial group, another group or groups have fewer representatives of their choice.  There are only so many seats in any given state.  Racial gerrymandering for a group which favors a certain political party is a partisan act.  Your map didn't just do what was legally mandated, you went out of your way to draw it to maximize minority seats and that has a partisan impact.  The idea this isn't a partisan issue is ridiculous.

There are still more white seats than minority seats.

well white voters are like 60-70% of the Texas electorate

Districts are made up of total population, not the "electorate".

In 2018, non-Hispanic whites represented 41.1% of Texas's population, reflecting a national demographic shift. Blacks or African Americans made up 11.9%, American Indians or Alaska Natives 0.3%, Asian Americans 4.9%, Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders 0.1%, some other race 0.2%, and two or more races 1.8%. Hispanics or Latin Americans of any race made up 39.7% of the estimated population.

[Idaho Conservative]

TIL Austin white liberals are a minority group?

Is that a 3 way split of central Austin ?

Out of necessity, to create three Hispanic majority districts in Bexar.

well prioritizing hispanic representation is just as nonpartisan as prioritizing white representation.  Racial gerrymandering has partisan outcomes, and you did significantly more than needed legally.

Its not, though.

Finally we agree.  It's not nonpartisan

What? Minority voting rights and representation access should not be a partisan issue.

What? White voting rights and representation access should not be a partisan issue.

The fact is, when you gerrymander for one racial group, another group or groups have fewer representatives of their choice.  There are only so many seats in any given state.  Racial gerrymandering for a group which favors a certain political party is a partisan act.  Your map didn't just do what was legally mandated, you went out of your way to draw it to maximize minority seats and that has a partisan impact.  The idea this isn't a partisan issue is ridiculous.

But in the U.S., there is no symmetry between the political power enjoyed by the dominant ethnic group / caste and political power enjoyed by members of other castes who have historically been suppressed by the majority. A system that favors representation by suppressed and discriminated-against minorities is fairer than one which pretends there’s an equal playing field whereas in reality the dominant caste enjoys inherent advantages in a system they built and maintain.

fair to who?  Not fair to whites.  Also, we don't have a caste system lol.  Plenty of minorities get elected by majority white electorates in both parties.  The idea minorities need special district today isn't a strong as it was a few decades ago.  In fact, it is more likely a majority white district elects a minority than a majority minority (electorate) district elects a white representative.  If anything, racial polarization hurts white candidates more.  I am not arguing majority minority district shouldn't exist, clearly if you are drawing the MS river delta, the Rio Grande Valley, or the South Side of Chicago there will be majority minority districts, and those communities shouldn't be cracked to reduce minority representation.  But racial gerrymandering can go too far in the other direction too, as seen in the above map.

[Idaho Conservative]

TIL Austin white liberals are a minority group?

Is that a 3 way split of central Austin ?

Out of necessity, to create three Hispanic majority districts in Bexar.

well prioritizing hispanic representation is just as nonpartisan as prioritizing white representation.  Racial gerrymandering has partisan outcomes, and you did significantly more than needed legally.

Its not, though.

Finally we agree.  It's not nonpartisan

What? Minority voting rights and representation access should not be a partisan issue.

What? White voting rights and representation access should not be a partisan issue.

The fact is, when you gerrymander for one racial group, another group or groups have fewer representatives of their choice.  There are only so many seats in any given state.  Racial gerrymandering for a group which favors a certain political party is a partisan act.  Your map didn't just do what was legally mandated, you went out of your way to draw it to maximize minority seats and that has a partisan impact.  The idea this isn't a partisan issue is ridiculous.

There are still more white seats than minority seats.

well white voters are like 60-70% of the Texas electorate

Districts are made up of total population, not the "electorate".

In 2018, non-Hispanic whites represented 41.1% of Texas's population, reflecting a national demographic shift. Blacks or African Americans made up 11.9%, American Indians or Alaska Natives 0.3%, Asian Americans 4.9%, Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders 0.1%, some other race 0.2%, and two or more races 1.8%. Hispanics or Latin Americans of any race made up 39.7% of the estimated population.

For population size yes, but not for racial considerations.  Hispanics are a smaller share of the electorate than their population share, so for a district to elect a Hispanic member, it needs to be well more than 50% Hispanic.  I was simply clarifying that him stating white districts being the majority means his map isn't a racial gerrymander is simply incorrect. 

[SevenEleven]

Given 39 districts, the expected number of county splits is 38. The actual number is 30.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Did a blind redistricting of TX with no partisanship data; just tried to make the map VRA compliant and compact. Interestingly enough, Clinton won 20 of the 39 districts. It's clear at this point Ds have the geography advantage when i8t comes to redistricting in TX.

[Sol]

Did a blind redistricting of TX with no partisanship data; just tried to make the map VRA compliant and compact. Interestingly enough, Clinton won 20 of the 39 districts. It's clear at this point Ds have the geography advantage when i8t comes to redistricting in TX.

FYI that border district needs to be made VRA compliant.

[Idaho Conservative]

Did a blind redistricting of TX with no partisanship data; just tried to make the map VRA compliant and compact. Interestingly enough, Clinton won 20 of the 39 districts. It's clear at this point Ds have the geography advantage when i8t comes to redistricting in TX.

idk if those Harris county seats are compliant

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Tried making a nasty R gerrymander.

Seems VRA compliant from what I can tell, though probably lumps a bunch of incumbents together and would be non-viable for that reason.

Insets:
Austin/San Antonio:


Houston:


DFW:


Clinton carried 15 districts, Trump carried 24 in 2016. Pretty sure Trump carried the 15th in 2020 but Biden still carried the 37th.

6th and 3rd might not last the whole decade but given DFW's trends that's unavoidable. The D vote sink in Austin was necessary to prevent the whole area from turning into a dummymander. All districts other than the 6th and 3rd (and maybe the 15th and 37th, with whatever the hell is going on in the RGV) should be safe for the whole decade.

Do you have Beto-Cruz #s?

[Idaho Conservative]

Here is my weak attempt at a GOP Gerrymander of TX. Based on the 2016 Prez race. Though I fell short on the VRA requirements.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1943af99-b35f-4355-ba3f-4b280a09429e


 

they can do much better than 5 Dem seats in DFW.  I don't see there being any more than 4 winnable seats for them there, most likely TX-32 is packed and TX-24, TX-3, and TX-6 take on more rural territory.

[Torie]

Here is my Pubmander light effort. In reality, I doubt the Pubs will be this kind, and will go for some erose monster (see above!), e.g., to bring the rurals into the city more. But given the massive Dem trends in Houston and Dallas, I wonder if they might risk going into dummymander territory. In that regard, one might note that I “gave” the Dems the Ft. Bend based CD, and “allowed” the rich Dallas CD to be competitive (and headed to the Dems if not there already), unless the Pubs undergo a Trump exorcism.  I suspect Texas, more than any other state, has more potential for a dummymander outside, of course, the Rio Grande Valley, where I did make a play for the Pubs to potentially snatch away the CD along the Gulf of Mexico.  And no fajita strips! No, the VRA does not require them, and the analytics show that I am the best thing ever for minorities in Texas since the invention of fried chicken and tacos to boot. So there!  

[Idaho Conservative]

Here is my Pubmander light effort. In reality, I doubt the Pubs will be this kind, and will go for some erose monster (see above!), e.g., to bring the rurals into the city more. But given the massive Dem trends in Houston and Dallas, I wonder if they might risk going into dummymander territory. In that regard, one might note that I “gave” the Dems the Ft. Bend based CD, and “allowed” the rich Dallas CD to be competitive (and headed to the Dems if not there already), unless the Pubs undergo a Trump exorcism.  I suspect Texas, more than any other state, has more potential for a dummymander outside, of course, the Rio Grande Valley, where I did make a play for the Pubs to potentially snatch away the CD along the Gulf of Mexico.  And no fajita strips! No, the VRA does not require them, and the analytics show that I am the best thing ever for minorities in Texas since the invention of fried chicken and tacos to boot. So there!  

No way Rs need to concede 5 seats in Houston

[Torie]

Here is my Pubmander light effort. In reality, I doubt the Pubs will be this kind, and will go for some erose monster (see above!), e.g., to bring the rurals into the city more. But given the massive Dem trends in Houston and Dallas, I wonder if they might risk going into dummymander territory. In that regard, one might note that I “gave” the Dems the Ft. Bend based CD, and “allowed” the rich Dallas CD to be competitive (and headed to the Dems if not there already), unless the Pubs undergo a Trump exorcism.  I suspect Texas, more than any other state, has more potential for a dummymander outside, of course, the Rio Grande Valley, where I did make a play for the Pubs to potentially snatch away the CD along the Gulf of Mexico.  And no fajita strips! No, the VRA does not require them, and the analytics show that I am the best thing ever for minorities in Texas since the invention of fried chicken and tacos to boot. So there!  

No way Rs need to concede 5 seats in Houston

Yeah, I managed to squeeze out a swing seat in Houston (the remnants of the once hyper-Pub westside of Houston) out of a Dem one. There is some risk though that it may end up a dummymander as Southern big cities become over time more like Northern ones (in this case both the westside swing CD and TX-23 going down the tubes for the Pubs over time, rather than ceding one CD now). In the Houston area, there are geographic (water without bridges) and VRA constraints that build walls about options in spinning the clock. One personal "wall" for me, is that absent VRA considerations, I won't do cross chops, where two CD's chop into each other's counties (or county cross chops for that matter, even if two different CD's are involved). That ceases to be a gerrymander "light," and is the stuff that fuels backlash.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here is my Pubmander light effort. In reality, I doubt the Pubs will be this kind, and will go for some erose monster (see above!), e.g., to bring the rurals into the city more. But given the massive Dem trends in Houston and Dallas, I wonder if they might risk going into dummymander territory. In that regard, one might note that I “gave” the Dems the Ft. Bend based CD, and “allowed” the rich Dallas CD to be competitive (and headed to the Dems if not there already), unless the Pubs undergo a Trump exorcism.  I suspect Texas, more than any other state, has more potential for a dummymander outside, of course, the Rio Grande Valley, where I did make a play for the Pubs to potentially snatch away the CD along the Gulf of Mexico.  And no fajita strips! No, the VRA does not require them, and the analytics show that I am the best thing ever for minorities in Texas since the invention of fried chicken and tacos to boot. So there!  

No way Rs need to concede 5 seats in Houston

Yeah, I managed to squeeze out a swing seat in Houston (the remnants of the once hyper-Pub westside of Houston) out of a Dem one. There is some risk though that it may end up a dummymander as Southern big cities become over time more like Northern ones (in this case both the westside swing CD and TX-23 going down the tubes for the Pubs over time, rather than ceding one CD now). In the Houston area, there are geographic (water without bridges) and VRA constraints that build walls about options in spinning the clock. One personal "wall" for me, is that absent VRA considerations, I won't do cross chops, where two CD's chop into each other's counties (or county cross chops for that matter, even if two different CD's are involved). That ceases to be a gerrymander "light," and is the stuff that fuels backlash.

you can combine 19 and 17 making 4 solidly Dem seats, everything else is safe

[Torie]

Not without cross chops.

[Idaho Conservative]

Not without cross chops.

here's a pretty clean packing

[Torie]

Well there are no cross chops, I will admit that. You used the 2018 population feature, and created a black and Hispanic CD? It looks like you may have sacrificed the swing CD in Harris County, in order to Pub up Ft. Bend, and one wonders what the Pub area of Ft. Bend was attached to (if it went back into Harris that is a cross chop) and what it does to the lines in the region. I guess perhaps I will find out in the next episode. Thank you for your effort.

[Torie]

Here is another version of the Houston area that Pubs up my TX-19 a bit more (Trump 2016 won it by five points).

[Idaho Conservative]

Well there are no cross chops, I will admit that. You used the 2018 population feature, and created a black and Hispanic CD? It looks like you may have sacrificed the swing CD in Harris County, in order to Pub up Ft. Bend, and one wonders what the Pub area of Ft. Bend was attached to (if it went back into Harris that is a cross chop) and what it does to the lines in the region. I guess perhaps I will find out in the next episode. Thank you for your effort.

2018, and there are 3 districts that would likely elect black members.  I could pretty easily make a 40%+ black district though

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Don't pay too much attention to the specific label I used in the image url "fairpartisan", or the specific district numbering.
One aim I had with this one is increasing the number of minority-influenced districts. I also tried to be non-partisan for the most part, drawing districts mostly or wholely within large, populous counties. When I was done I edited districts in some areas to create a majority of Trump districts. I achieved a disproportionality of just -1.38% using 2016 presidential results. Throughout, I tried to keep compactness preserved in some form, but this map places it unusually low in priority, relative to my other maps.

In Harris County, the Latino seat remains safe for the Hispanic candidate of choice, while the black seat becomes less Hispanic overall. There are 2 coalition districts within Harris and one within Fort Bend. A district is drawn in western Harris that is Trump+5; Culberson likely wins here in 2018 if it existed back then. Along the border, only two CDs take from Hidalgo. In metro DFW, there is a black seat and a Latino seat, as well as two minority influence CDs. There is also a district drawn to withstand pro-Clinton swings in northern Dallas County, combining all of Rockwall County with the Park Cities. Not sure if it went for Biden; it might have. But Sessions would have been re-elected here in 2018.

There are 20 Trump districts and 19 Clinton districts.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/96dbe077-f1d1-4975-a6d0-5817515cc2fa

[Skill and Chance]

Not without cross chops.

here's a pretty clean packing

So Fletcher would run in the green CD, I presume?  Though it moved significantly south so she might get a Fort Bend Dem primary challenger. 

[Idaho Conservative]

Not without cross chops.

here's a pretty clean packing

So Fletcher would run in the green CD, I presume?  Though it moved significantly south so she might get a Fort Bend Dem primary challenger. 

It's only 16% white and is almost all new turf, if not all.  I don't think she'd be electorally viable there.  She cold run in the downtown Houston seat, it contains her base and is 29% white, a majority of them being Dems.  But it's 29% black, so she'd be quite vulnerable to a black Dem.  Fletcher wouldn't have a good option here.  But 4 heavily minority Houston seats would help avoid lawsuits over packing minorities.  TX has little incentive to draw seats for white Dems.

[Skill and Chance]

Not without cross chops.

here's a pretty clean packing

So Fletcher would run in the green CD, I presume?  Though it moved significantly south so she might get a Fort Bend Dem primary challenger. 

It's only 16% white and is almost all new turf, if not all.  I don't think she'd be electorally viable there.  She cold run in the downtown Houston seat, it contains her base and is 29% white, a majority of them being Dems.  But it's 29% black, so she'd be quite vulnerable to a black Dem.  Fletcher wouldn't have a good option here.  But 4 heavily minority Houston seats would help avoid lawsuits over packing minorities.  TX has little incentive to draw seats for white Dems.

Yes, if Republicans are smart, they draw a 4th Dem-leaning seat in Houston, but include as many Clinton landslide->narrow Biden win precincts as possible and try to make it majority Hispanic.  They could end up with a VRA-protected and Republican-leaning seat by 2030.   

Fletcher is a lawyer, so I wonder if she goes for AG in 2022?  It's probably the best Dem opportunity of the statewide offices due to Paxton's eccentricity and ethics troubles.

[Tintrlvr]

I'm curious how you would chop up the west side of Houston on that map, Idaho Conservative. It would still lend itself to an additional toss-up seat unless you're actively splitting the area up and combining the parts with the rurals/Montgomery County.

[Idaho Conservative]

Not without cross chops.

here's a pretty clean packing

So Fletcher would run in the green CD, I presume?  Though it moved significantly south so she might get a Fort Bend Dem primary challenger. 

It's only 16% white and is almost all new turf, if not all.  I don't think she'd be electorally viable there.  She cold run in the downtown Houston seat, it contains her base and is 29% white, a majority of them being Dems.  But it's 29% black, so she'd be quite vulnerable to a black Dem.  Fletcher wouldn't have a good option here.  But 4 heavily minority Houston seats would help avoid lawsuits over packing minorities.  TX has little incentive to draw seats for white Dems.

Yes, if Republicans are smart, they draw a 4th Dem-leaning seat in Houston, but include as many Clinton landslide->narrow Biden win precincts as possible and try to make it majority Hispanic.  They could end up with a VRA-protected and Republican-leaning seat by 2030.   

Fletcher is a lawyer, so I wonder if she goes for AG in 2022?  It's probably the best Dem opportunity of the statewide offices due to Paxton's eccentricity and ethics troubles.

you can't draw a hispanic republican seat in Houston by VRA standards, which require CVAP.  It can be done in South TX though.  Fletcher could run statewide, but I doubt she'd win in 2022.  Dem midterms aren't kind to Democrats.  If Trump had won, she'd definitely have a shot.

[Idaho Conservative]

I'm curious how you would chop up the west side of Houston on that map, Idaho Conservative. It would still lend itself to an additional toss-up seat unless you're actively splitting the area up and combining the parts with the rurals/Montgomery County.

the remainder of West Harris county is Trump+15, not a tossup but it probably would be in the late 2020s.  Removing the blue precincts at the very left part of the county and putting them with red rural areas should make the remainder of west county red enough to remain safe, it could also go up into Montgomery.