2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[lfromnj]

The Texas RGV results are going to be good for the GOP to argue in redistricting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Texas RGV results are going to be good for the GOP to argue in redistricting.

Not really. What matters is congressional electoral results, not presidential.

[lfromnj]

The Texas RGV results are going to be good for the GOP to argue in redistricting.

Not really. What matters is congressional electoral results, not presidential.

Cuellar and Gonzalez are only leading by 3 rn.

When Hispanics only vote 40% R in a region you can argue either electoral result is fine for them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Texas RGV results are going to be good for the GOP to argue in redistricting.

Not really. What matters is congressional electoral results, not presidential.

Cuellar and Gonzalez are only leading by 3 rn.

Decision desk shows Cuellar winning by 13, Vela by 11, Ortez-Jones by 19. Only close race is Gonzalez, who is only 3 ahead.

[lfromnj]

The Texas RGV results are going to be good for the GOP to argue in redistricting.

Not really. What matters is congressional electoral results, not presidential.

Cuellar and Gonzalez are only leading by 3 rn.

Decision desk shows Cuellar winning by 13, Vela by 11, Ortez-Jones by 19. Only close race is Gonzalez, who is only 3 ahead.

Weird NYT is different. I can see Cuellar asking the GOP for a GOP leaning district and then switching parties?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Will 2020 end the fajita districts as we know them?

[lfromnj]

Will 2020 end the fajita districts as we know them?

Yeah either 3 compact districts or one compact pack and they crack the rest for Hispanic Republicans.

[OBD]

Will 2020 end the fajita districts as we know them?

Yeah either 3 compact districts or one compact pack and they crack the rest for Hispanic Republicans.

TBH I just think they'll draw the fajitas more favorable to Republicans. It's clearly possible now.

[lfromnj]

Gonna work on a 10-29 map.

edit: thinking 10-29 isn't possible, probably gonna do 11-29.

D sinks would be 3 Dallas/ 3 Houston

1 Austin
1 Austin to San antonio
1 San Antonio.
1 Rio grande valley sink
1 El paso.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Gonna work on a 10-29 map.

edit: thinking 10-29 isn't possible, probably gonna do 11-29.

D sinks would be 3 Dallas/ 3 Houston

1 Austin
1 Austin to San antonio
1 San Antonio.
1 Rio grande valley sink
1 El paso.

Do 3 Dallas/3 Houston at your own risk. I really wouldn't count on that holding.

[dpmapper]

Gonna work on a 10-29 map.

edit: thinking 10-29 isn't possible, probably gonna do 11-29.

D sinks would be 3 Dallas/ 3 Houston

1 Austin
1 Austin to San antonio
1 San Antonio.
1 Rio grande valley sink
1 El paso.

Do 3 Dallas/3 Houston at your own risk. I really wouldn't count on that holding.

Doesn't need to hold all decade.  If it starts at 3 Dem seats in (say) DFW and all but one R seat is safe all decade, that's better than 4 sinks. 

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Gonna work on a 10-29 map.

edit: thinking 10-29 isn't possible, probably gonna do 11-29.

D sinks would be 3 Dallas/ 3 Houston

1 Austin
1 Austin to San antonio
1 San Antonio.
1 Rio grande valley sink
1 El paso.

Do 3 Dallas/3 Houston at your own risk. I really wouldn't count on that holding.

Doesn't need to hold all decade.  If it starts at 3 Dem seats in (say) DFW and all but one R seat is safe all decade, that's better than 4 sinks. 

I wouldn't count on it holding just in 2022. Don't forget how overpopulated the current D seats are. There isn't much of the Texas Triangle you can crack these seats out to.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The other questions are 1) Was the RGV swing a fluke and 2) Do Republicans get cocky this round with Austin and the Dallas-Ft Worth Metros? 

I think there’s already some evidence in hindsight that Trump’s gains with Hispanics outside of Miami-Dade* (and possibly with AA men, for that matter, but idk) were driven by folks who don’t normally show up.  I remain bullish on the chances of any GOP gains with Texas/NM/AZ/CA/NV Hispanics being reversed when Trump isn’t on the ballot.  The Democrats clearly benefited from lower RGV turnout with in the past which is something I never thought I’d say, but here we are. 

OTOH, I can tell you that - for better or worse - the suburban whites who switched b/c of Trump are here to stay, there’s no unringing that bell and the bottom hasn’t really fallen out there, not by a long shot.  The point is coming in a cycle or two where the suburbs swing really hard to the Dems down ballot the way the south did to the Republicans in 2010.  It’ll certainly happen this decade and if Republican map-makers are smart, they’ll plan accordingly when they draw their maps in places like Texas, Georgia, and even Indiana.  They got lucky, but the thing about dodging a bullet is that you can only do it for so long.  Being a little less greedy than they can get away with being right now could save their a** in a big way in 4-6 years. 

Anyway, I think they should see if they can make Gonzales much safer and then draw two Democratic RGV seats, but draw one so that Cuellar is heavily favored in his primary with a more liberal Democratic colleague.

*I think there were clearly multiple issues causing the Hispanic swing and while it’s a cliche, they

[lfromnj]

The other questions are 1) Was the RGV swing a fluke and 2) Do Republicans get cocky this round with Austin and the Dallas-Ft Worth Metros? 

I think there’s already some evidence in hindsight that Trump’s gains with Hispanics outside of Miami-Dade* (and possibly with AA men, for that matter, but idk) were driven by folks who don’t normally show up.  I remain bullish on the chances of any GOP gains with Texas/NM/AZ/CA/NV Hispanics being reversed when Trump isn’t on the ballot.  The Democrats clearly benefited from lower RGV turnout with in the past which is something I never thought I’d say, but here we are. 

OTOH, I can tell you that - for better or worse - the suburban whites who switched b/c of Trump are here to stay, there’s no unringing that bell and the bottom hasn’t really fallen out there, not by a long shot.  The point is coming in a cycle or two where the suburbs swing really hard to the Dems down ballot the way the south did to the Republicans in 2010.  It’ll certainly happen this decade and if Republican map-makers are smart, they’ll plan accordingly when they draw their maps in places like Texas, Georgia, and even Indiana.  They got lucky, but the thing about dodging a bullet is that you can only do it for so long.  Being a little less greedy than they can get away with being right now could save their a** in a big way in 4-6 years. 

Anyway, I think they should see if they can make Gonzales much safer and then draw two Democratic RGV seats, but draw one so that Cuellar is heavily favored in his primary with a more liberal Democratic colleague.

*I think there were clearly multiple issues causing the Hispanic swing and while it’s a cliche, they

There is no needing for planning in Indiana , just move Indiana 7th north.

[Idaho Conservative]

Yeah the fajita strips have basically turned into republican gerrymanders, they were predicated on hispanics voting overwhemingly dem, but if there's a new coalition in which hispanics vote 35%-45% R and whites up north, that could be a winning coalition.  Republicans didn't meaningfully compete in the fajitas and yet almost won one of them.  Also, this is really good for Cuellar, he can now argue electability since a left wing challenger wouldn't be a shoe-in for the general election. 

[lfromnj]

Yeah the fajita strips have basically turned into republican gerrymanders, they were predicated on hispanics voting overwhemingly dem, but if there's a new coalition in which hispanics vote 35%-45% R and whites up north, that could be a winning coalition.  Republicans didn't meaningfully compete in the fajitas and yet almost won one of them.  Also, this is really good for Cuellar, he can now argue electability since a left wing challenger wouldn't be a shoe-in for the general election.  

A lot of hacks demanded 4 Fajita districts, i wonder how that would have ended up this year if for some reason the Texas GOP did draw that.

[lfromnj]

Gonna work on a 10-29 map.

edit: thinking 10-29 isn't possible, probably gonna do 11-29.

D sinks would be 3 Dallas/ 3 Houston

1 Austin
1 Austin to San antonio
1 San Antonio.
1 Rio grande valley sink
1 El paso.

Do 3 Dallas/3 Houston at your own risk. I really wouldn't count on that holding.

Doesn't need to hold all decade.  If it starts at 3 Dem seats in (say) DFW and all but one R seat is safe all decade, that's better than 4 sinks. 

I wouldn't count on it holding just in 2022. Don't forget how overpopulated the current D seats are. There isn't much of the Texas Triangle you can crack these seats out to.

You are adding 1 sink in Dallas and for Houston you got Montgomery county and other areas all around.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Gonna work on a 10-29 map.

edit: thinking 10-29 isn't possible, probably gonna do 11-29.

D sinks would be 3 Dallas/ 3 Houston

1 Austin
1 Austin to San antonio
1 San Antonio.
1 Rio grande valley sink
1 El paso.

Do 3 Dallas/3 Houston at your own risk. I really wouldn't count on that holding.

Doesn't need to hold all decade.  If it starts at 3 Dem seats in (say) DFW and all but one R seat is safe all decade, that's better than 4 sinks. 

I wouldn't count on it holding just in 2022. Don't forget how overpopulated the current D seats are. There isn't much of the Texas Triangle you can crack these seats out to.

You are adding 1 sink in Dallas and for Houston you got Montgomery county and other areas all around.

But in Houston all 3 have to be VRA seats and I don't think you can effectively crack all of West Harris/Fort Bend.

[lfromnj]

Again the GOP is gonna crack it, they spent a decent bit on Hunt and he didn't get BTFO, you can say it collapses by 2028 or whatever but its not gonna collapse in 2022 lol. A 11-28 map holds in 2022 assuming you draw the hispanic seats properly and it goes well there.

TX 8th and TX 36th are 2 R+27 districts that are mega sinks, use that to help crack everything else. Considering the GOP 6 way split Austin you can expect that.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The other questions are 1) Was the RGV swing a fluke and 2) Do Republicans get cocky this round with Austin and the Dallas-Ft Worth Metros? 

I think there’s already some evidence in hindsight that Trump’s gains with Hispanics outside of Miami-Dade* (and possibly with AA men, for that matter, but idk) were driven by folks who don’t normally show up.  I remain bullish on the chances of any GOP gains with Texas/NM/AZ/CA/NV Hispanics being reversed when Trump isn’t on the ballot.  The Democrats clearly benefited from lower RGV turnout with in the past which is something I never thought I’d say, but here we are. 

OTOH, I can tell you that - for better or worse - the suburban whites who switched b/c of Trump are here to stay, there’s no unringing that bell and the bottom hasn’t really fallen out there, not by a long shot.  The point is coming in a cycle or two where the suburbs swing really hard to the Dems down ballot the way the south did to the Republicans in 2010.  It’ll certainly happen this decade and if Republican map-makers are smart, they’ll plan accordingly when they draw their maps in places like Texas, Georgia, and even Indiana.  They got lucky, but the thing about dodging a bullet is that you can only do it for so long.  Being a little less greedy than they can get away with being right now could save their a** in a big way in 4-6 years. 

Anyway, I think they should see if they can make Gonzales much safer and then draw two Democratic RGV seats, but draw one so that Cuellar is heavily favored in his primary with a more liberal Democratic colleague.

*I think there were clearly multiple issues causing the Hispanic swing and while it’s a cliche, they

There is no needing for planning in Indiana , just move Indiana 7th north.

You get my point though

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Gonna work on a 10-29 map.

edit: thinking 10-29 isn't possible, probably gonna do 11-29.

D sinks would be 3 Dallas/ 3 Houston

1 Austin
1 Austin to San antonio
1 San Antonio.
1 Rio grande valley sink
1 El paso.

Do 3 Dallas/3 Houston at your own risk. I really wouldn't count on that holding.

Doesn't need to hold all decade.  If it starts at 3 Dem seats in (say) DFW and all but one R seat is safe all decade, that's better than 4 sinks. 

I wouldn't count on it holding just in 2022. Don't forget how overpopulated the current D seats are. There isn't much of the Texas Triangle you can crack these seats out to.

You are adding 1 sink in Dallas and for Houston you got Montgomery county and other areas all around.

But in Houston all 3 have to be VRA seats and I don't think you can effectively crack all of West Harris/Fort Bend.

If West Harris is becoming so blue then why did Lizzie Fletcher win re-election by only three points, half the margin she won by in 2018?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Gonna work on a 10-29 map.

edit: thinking 10-29 isn't possible, probably gonna do 11-29.

D sinks would be 3 Dallas/ 3 Houston

1 Austin
1 Austin to San antonio
1 San Antonio.
1 Rio grande valley sink
1 El paso.

Do 3 Dallas/3 Houston at your own risk. I really wouldn't count on that holding.

Doesn't need to hold all decade.  If it starts at 3 Dem seats in (say) DFW and all but one R seat is safe all decade, that's better than 4 sinks. 

I wouldn't count on it holding just in 2022. Don't forget how overpopulated the current D seats are. There isn't much of the Texas Triangle you can crack these seats out to.

You are adding 1 sink in Dallas and for Houston you got Montgomery county and other areas all around.

But in Houston all 3 have to be VRA seats and I don't think you can effectively crack all of West Harris/Fort Bend.

If West Harris is becoming so blue then why did Lizzie Fletcher win re-election by only three points, half the margin she won by in 2018?

Remember, all these districts are going to shed like 100k people. Which means Fletcher's zooms left and the districts bordering the VRAs do too. Obviously we need to wait for precinct results but I doubt a 3-Dem Harris crack can hold with population adjustments.

[lfromnj]

So genuine question

To all those who supported drawing the fajitas in a fair Texas map do you still support them?

Im sticking by my compact seats for my fair map and gonna be consistent.

[dpmapper]

GOP could totally draw one compact McAllen-Brownsville seat, keep Cuellar's seat roughly the way it is, and then have a Harlingen-Corpus seat and a slightly redrawn TX-15, for four Hispanic RGV seats (plus TX-23 which can easily be shored up).  You can draw the new TX-15 and the Harlingen-Corpus seats so that Trump won them by a couple points in 2016, so with the way south Texas went right this election, they'd probably be likely R at worst now.  How would the argument that the compact seat packs too many Hispanics fly if the number of Hispanic districts in the region goes up? 

[Idaho Conservative]

GOP could totally draw one compact McAllen-Brownsville seat, keep Cuellar's seat roughly the way it is, and then have a Harlingen-Corpus seat and a slightly redrawn TX-15, for four Hispanic RGV seats (plus TX-23 which can easily be shored up).  You can draw the new TX-15 and the Harlingen-Corpus seats so that Trump won them by a couple points in 2016, so with the way south Texas went right this election, they'd probably be likely R at worst now.  How would the argument that the compact seat packs too many Hispanics fly if the number of Hispanic districts in the region goes up? 

they could still argue that it does, but I'm not sure if the Dems would want to go down that road.  Republicans might draw 4 anyways though, I have seen  a 4 fajita map, the districts are like Clinton 10-15, with the RGV trends that wouldn't hold up, I'd need to see Trump numbers on the current fajitas though