2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Idaho Conservative]

If R's lose the house, a Republican controlled backup commission draws the lines.  A Dem gerrymander isn't happening.  The best case for Dems is 23-16. 

[lfromnj]

If R's lose the house, a Republican controlled backup commission draws the lines.  A Dem gerrymander isn't happening.  The best case for Dems is 23-16. 

False,the state supreme court draws the federal map, legislative is done by the commision. A court map would be limited relatively.

[Idaho Conservative]

If R's lose the house, a Republican controlled backup commission draws the lines.  A Dem gerrymander isn't happening.  The best case for Dems is 23-16. 

False,the state supreme court draws the federal map, legislative is done by the commision. A court map would be limited relatively.

ok, it would still benefit R's tho.  But instead of a 25-14 map you might get a 23-16 map with 1 or 2 swingy seats on each side. 

[lfromnj]

If R's lose the house, a Republican controlled backup commission draws the lines.  A Dem gerrymander isn't happening.  The best case for Dems is 23-16. 

False,the state supreme court draws the federal map, legislative is done by the commision. A court map would be limited relatively.

ok, it would still benefit R's tho.  But instead of a 25-14 map you might get a 23-16 map with 1 or 2 swingy seats on each side. 

 Lets say 3 RGV seats. 1 SA/RGV seat.
1 El paso. Probably 2 Austin seats( I can't see a way to get Ds down to 1 seat in austin in any compact map). At least 4 Dallas seats and at least 4 Houston. However the problem with a court map for Ds is the AA legislators in Houston would squeal.

[Idaho Conservative]

If R's lose the house, a Republican controlled backup commission draws the lines.  A Dem gerrymander isn't happening.  The best case for Dems is 23-16. 

False,the state supreme court draws the federal map, legislative is done by the commision. A court map would be limited relatively.

ok, it would still benefit R's tho.  But instead of a 25-14 map you might get a 23-16 map with 1 or 2 swingy seats on each side. 

 Lets say 3 RGV seats. 1 SA/RGV seat.
1 El paso. Probably 2 Austin seats( I can't see a way to get Ds down to 1 seat in austin in any compact map). At least 4 Dallas seats and at least 4 Houston. However the problem with a court map for Ds is the AA legislators in Houston would squeal.

well an alternative route is bribing black legislators with safe seats in exchange for drawing suburban lines so a 5th dem seat in DFW or Houston doesn't happen.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/mattmxhn/status/1288706065748590592

Lets get some Beto numbers.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://twitter.com/mattmxhn/status/1288706065748590592

Lets get some Beto numbers.

how do you do that?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/mattmxhn/status/1288706065748590592

Lets get some Beto numbers.

how do you do that?

Read the thread.https://twitter.com/mattmxhn/status/1288706067497652224

[Idaho Conservative]

Thanks.  And tbh I'd say a good baseline is Cruz+20 for a titanium district.  Maybe less if it's rural, and more if it's entirely in a fast growing suburban area.  Also go get that you do need to get a little gnarly in Austin and North Dallas/Collin as well as concede a 4th pack in Houston, worth it tho.  Also 3 or 4 packs in DFW (again, depending on how gnarly you are willing to go) and at least 1.5 in Austin.  Also, TX-23 can be made Cruz+9 or so without making it less Hispanic.  Just exchange suburban whites and Hispanics with rurals. 

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6be93389-14b8-421a-99d2-fd0b74a9cce8


Just made a 14-25 not very good or incumbent caring, just wanted to test it out. I have quite a few Beto 40%+ districts but a lot of them are not trending left much.(I compared to the 2008 election)

Thinking about going 15-24 with an extra Hispanic Austin to San antonio district. Also will have to shore up 2 Collin county districts but they have neighboring suburban districts that are much redder.

Houston feels relatively solid with all districts being Cruz +21 or more. There is one SE houston district that is Cruz +16 but it was only Mccain +20 so it should easily hold.

[lfromnj]

A lot of these 3 Dem Houston districts aren't VRA compliant. With 2018 numbers, it's really easy to argue Houston requires 3 VRA districts: an AA one stretching from Missouri City to Downtown to Northeast Houston, a Latino one from the Second Ward to Pasadena to La Porte, and a second Latino one from Spring Valley Village to IAH Airport to Dyersdale. With these three districts established, it's really hard to avoid drawing a fourth Dem district in the Uptown/Bellaire area without all the West Houston and Fort Bend districts collapsing.

Houston currently has 3 vra seats, but I agree a west houston pack should be created unless they REALLY want to cut up rural TX.  Here's a good example of how to create 4 vote sinks in Houston.  2 black, 1 hispanic, 1 multiracial dem seat that is very likely to elect Lizzie Fletcher, since it has a majority white electorate but is Clinton+28 (2008 Obama+12, Cornyn+1).  

My mistake. What I meant to say is that I don't think in 2020, drawing a map of Houston that only has 3 Dem seats and is VRA compliant is possible. Some of the previous maps that tried to do that are either non-VRA compliant or actually have more than three Dem districts. Come 2022, I think the TX GOP will have to concede these four Dem packs:

0 chance Bellaire goes into a D district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

A lot of these 3 Dem Houston districts aren't VRA compliant. With 2018 numbers, it's really easy to argue Houston requires 3 VRA districts: an AA one stretching from Missouri City to Downtown to Northeast Houston, a Latino one from the Second Ward to Pasadena to La Porte, and a second Latino one from Spring Valley Village to IAH Airport to Dyersdale. With these three districts established, it's really hard to avoid drawing a fourth Dem district in the Uptown/Bellaire area without all the West Houston and Fort Bend districts collapsing.

Houston currently has 3 vra seats, but I agree a west houston pack should be created unless they REALLY want to cut up rural TX.  Here's a good example of how to create 4 vote sinks in Houston.  2 black, 1 hispanic, 1 multiracial dem seat that is very likely to elect Lizzie Fletcher, since it has a majority white electorate but is Clinton+28 (2008 Obama+12, Cornyn+1).  

My mistake. What I meant to say is that I don't think in 2020, drawing a map of Houston that only has 3 Dem seats and is VRA compliant is possible. Some of the previous maps that tried to do that are either non-VRA compliant or actually have more than three Dem districts. Come 2022, I think the TX GOP will have to concede these four Dem packs:

0 chance Bellaire goes into a D district.

Uh, why not?

[lfromnj]

A lot of these 3 Dem Houston districts aren't VRA compliant. With 2018 numbers, it's really easy to argue Houston requires 3 VRA districts: an AA one stretching from Missouri City to Downtown to Northeast Houston, a Latino one from the Second Ward to Pasadena to La Porte, and a second Latino one from Spring Valley Village to IAH Airport to Dyersdale. With these three districts established, it's really hard to avoid drawing a fourth Dem district in the Uptown/Bellaire area without all the West Houston and Fort Bend districts collapsing.

Houston currently has 3 vra seats, but I agree a west houston pack should be created unless they REALLY want to cut up rural TX.  Here's a good example of how to create 4 vote sinks in Houston.  2 black, 1 hispanic, 1 multiracial dem seat that is very likely to elect Lizzie Fletcher, since it has a majority white electorate but is Clinton+28 (2008 Obama+12, Cornyn+1).  

My mistake. What I meant to say is that I don't think in 2020, drawing a map of Houston that only has 3 Dem seats and is VRA compliant is possible. Some of the previous maps that tried to do that are either non-VRA compliant or actually have more than three Dem districts. Come 2022, I think the TX GOP will have to concede these four Dem packs:

0 chance Bellaire goes into a D district.

Uh, why not?

Under a GOP gerrymander of course. Too many donors there who just donate to the incumbent.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

A lot of these 3 Dem Houston districts aren't VRA compliant. With 2018 numbers, it's really easy to argue Houston requires 3 VRA districts: an AA one stretching from Missouri City to Downtown to Northeast Houston, a Latino one from the Second Ward to Pasadena to La Porte, and a second Latino one from Spring Valley Village to IAH Airport to Dyersdale. With these three districts established, it's really hard to avoid drawing a fourth Dem district in the Uptown/Bellaire area without all the West Houston and Fort Bend districts collapsing.

Houston currently has 3 vra seats, but I agree a west houston pack should be created unless they REALLY want to cut up rural TX.  Here's a good example of how to create 4 vote sinks in Houston.  2 black, 1 hispanic, 1 multiracial dem seat that is very likely to elect Lizzie Fletcher, since it has a majority white electorate but is Clinton+28 (2008 Obama+12, Cornyn+1).  

My mistake. What I meant to say is that I don't think in 2020, drawing a map of Houston that only has 3 Dem seats and is VRA compliant is possible. Some of the previous maps that tried to do that are either non-VRA compliant or actually have more than three Dem districts. Come 2022, I think the TX GOP will have to concede these four Dem packs:

0 chance Bellaire goes into a D district.

Uh, why not?

Under a GOP gerrymander of course. Too many donors there who just donate to the incumbent.

That's more River Oaks than Bellaire, but I sort of see your point. Not sure the TXGOP would bother when the area makes such an effective Dem pack.

[lfromnj]

A lot of these 3 Dem Houston districts aren't VRA compliant. With 2018 numbers, it's really easy to argue Houston requires 3 VRA districts: an AA one stretching from Missouri City to Downtown to Northeast Houston, a Latino one from the Second Ward to Pasadena to La Porte, and a second Latino one from Spring Valley Village to IAH Airport to Dyersdale. With these three districts established, it's really hard to avoid drawing a fourth Dem district in the Uptown/Bellaire area without all the West Houston and Fort Bend districts collapsing.

Houston currently has 3 vra seats, but I agree a west houston pack should be created unless they REALLY want to cut up rural TX.  Here's a good example of how to create 4 vote sinks in Houston.  2 black, 1 hispanic, 1 multiracial dem seat that is very likely to elect Lizzie Fletcher, since it has a majority white electorate but is Clinton+28 (2008 Obama+12, Cornyn+1).  

My mistake. What I meant to say is that I don't think in 2020, drawing a map of Houston that only has 3 Dem seats and is VRA compliant is possible. Some of the previous maps that tried to do that are either non-VRA compliant or actually have more than three Dem districts. Come 2022, I think the TX GOP will have to concede these four Dem packs:

0 chance Bellaire goes into a D district.

Uh, why not?

Under a GOP gerrymander of course. Too many donors there who just donate to the incumbent.

That's more River Oaks than Bellaire, but I sort of see your point. Not sure the TXGOP would bother when the area makes such an effective Dem pack.

I mean that area is around +5 clinton. I'm sure you missed some precincts that are more D than that.

I mean this is really nitpicking but just noting it.

[Idaho Conservative]

remove gop precincts from the green district and move it further into Fort Bend. 

[EastAnglianLefty]

Here's an attempt at a fair map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/71efe28f-948a-4a47-b47f-060d17830482





18 safely Republican seats, 15 safely Democratic, 6 swing seats (defined as D+5 to R+6.) However, Clinton won five of those swing districts and the other (the Arlington-based 6th) only went for Trump by 0.3%.

8 performing Hispanic VRA seats (El Paso, 4 along the border, 2 in San Antonio, 1 in Houston) and at least one Hispanic opportunity seat (the NW Dallas seat.) The three existing black VRA seats are maintained and Veasey would probably be favoured in the 33rd.

I'm quite pleased with how neatly the lines worked out for the two San Antonio districts and with how neatly Laredo fits in the 23rd. Houston is also fairly clean, although Montgomery County gets cut up more than I'd like. Not as keen on splitting the Panhandle, but I didn't want to split Lubbock or to have three West Texas seats and that was the only clean way to accomplish that.

That fajitas look particularly ugly in this map, but a Corpus Christi-suburban San Antonio seat wouldn't perform on 2016 numbers. That said, the Bexar portion of the 28th is full of areas which were clearly still being built out in 2016, so it might just be viable by 2020.

[lfromnj]

7 hispanic districts is a made up idea by Maldef which always wants  to maximize it.

Also make a rotation between 7 9 and 37(clockwise) so that Bellaire goes with the villages which is a 100% clear and relatively compact COI.

I 100% agree the Texas GOP has a self packing problem and a fair map would proportionally favor Ds but a fair map doesn't make that worse by giving Hispanics more seats but keeping white rural areas packed.



Heres my fix for the Houston area. Only marginal partisan changes with a 3 point shift left for the bellaire district while the brown district moves 3 points right(both still Clinton districts)




Also felt Frisco and Plano belong together(as Frisco is basically Plano extended now because Plano is too full of low density housing)(this does make the 32nd closer to Lean R and the 3rd is still safe for now(but might be more competitive at the end)



Finally just kept the rural parts of Travis county together which moves 25 a bit to the right but obviously still Safe D.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Not too bothered either way about those suggestions for Dallas and Houston, but I disagree on Austin - the river looks to me like a fairly significant barrier and I think it's better to respect that than to unite areas which may nominally be rural but which are still functionally a short drive from a major urban centre.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/03428372-f2a0-4729-84e0-5bc0095e3e22
proportional map, rated 99 by DRA for proportionality.  Least agressive gerrymander I could see pass.  The GOP court could also draw something like this, justified by partisan fairness. 
Basically 23-16.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8622acc-5237-4f4e-a50a-3fbd04efe2ed
This is maybe a more realistic GOP gerrymander.  23-2-14.  The 2 swing seats are Trump+8 (rio grande) and Trump+12 (Highland Park-prosper).  Incumbents protected.
1. Safe R, Tyler to Mesquite, Trump+33, Louie Gohmert
2. Safe R, northeastern Houston suburbs/exurbs, Trump+31, Dan Crenshaw
3. Safe R, Plano to Marshall, Trump+33, Van Taylor
4. Safe R, Texarkana to McKinney, Trump+34, open
5. Safe R, Garland to Longview, Trump+34, Lance Gooden
6. Safe R, Arlington and southern DFW exurbs, Trump+29, Ron Wright
7. Safe D, northern and western Houston, Clinton+43, Lizzie Fletcher (vulnerable to non-white primary challenger)
8. Safe R, The Woodlands to Jersey Village, Trump+34, Kevin Brady
9. Safe D, Fort Bend and SW Harris, Clinton+46, Al Green
10. Safe R, western Harris to Louisiana border, Trump+33, Michael McCaul?
11. Safe R, Midland to northern Bexar, Trump+31, August Pfluger
12. Safe R, Fort Worth to Weatherford, Trump+30, Kay Granger
13. Safe R, Amarillo to Wichita Falls, Trump+60, Ronny L. Jackson
14. Safe R, Galveston to Beaumont, Trump+24, Randy Weber
15. Safe D, McAllen to Corpus Christi, Clinton+29, Vicente Gonzalez
16. Safe D, El Paso, Clinton+33, Veronica Escobar
17. Safe R, Bryan to North Travis, Trump+22, Pete Sessions
18. Safe D, central to south Houston, Clinton+56, Sheila Jackson Lee
19. Safe R, Lubbock to western Travis, Trump+31, Jodey Arrington
20. Safe D, western San Antonio, Clinton+27, Joaquin Castro
21. Safe R, northern San Antonio suburbs/exurbs, Trump+28, Chip Roy
22. Safe R, Fort Bend to Gonzales County, Trump+30, Troy Nehls?
23. Likely R, El Paso to southern Bexar, Trump+8, open
24. Safe R, northern Tarrant to southern Denton, Trump+31, Beth Van Duyne?
25. Safe R, Abilene to Pflugerville, Trump+30, Roger Williams
26. Safe R, eastern Denton to Stevens County, Trump+29, Michael Burgess
27. Safe R, Corpus Christi to southern Houston exurbs, Trump+31, Michael Cloud,
28. Safe D, McAllen to eastern Bexar, Clinton+38, Henry Cuellar
29. Safe D, Houston to Pasadena, Clinton+51, Sylvia Garcia
30. Safe D, southern Dallas and Arlington, Clinton+53, Eddie Bernice Johnson
31. Safe R, Round Rock to Hood County, Trump+29, John Carter
32. Safe D, Downtown Dallas and northern suburbs, Clinton+39, Colin Allred
33. Safe D, Fort Worth to Grand Prairie, Clinton+49, Marc Veasey
34. Safe D, Brownsville to Corpus Christi, Clinton+27, Filemon Vela Jr.
35. Safe D, San Antonio to Austin, Clinton+43, open
36. Safe R, Jasper to Pearland, Trump+33, Brian Babin
37. Safe D, Austin, Clinton+53, Lloyd Doggett
38. Likely R, Highland Park to Prosper, Trump+12, open
39. Safe R, Hunters Creek Village to Livingston, Trump+30, open

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8622acc-5237-4f4e-a50a-3fbd04efe2ed
This is maybe a more realistic GOP gerrymander.  23-2-14.  The 2 swing seats are Trump+8 (rio grande) and Trump+12 (Highland Park-prosper).  Incumbents protected.
1. Safe R, Tyler to Mesquite, Trump+33, Louie Gohmert
2. Safe R, northeastern Houston suburbs/exurbs, Trump+31, Dan Crenshaw
3. Safe R, Plano to Marshall, Trump+33, Van Taylor
4. Safe R, Texarkana to McKinney, Trump+34, open
5. Safe R, Garland to Longview, Trump+34, Lance Gooden
6. Safe R, Arlington and southern DFW exurbs, Trump+29, Ron Wright
7. Safe D, northern and western Houston, Clinton+43, Lizzie Fletcher (vulnerable to non-white primary challenger)
8. Safe R, The Woodlands to Jersey Village, Trump+34, Kevin Brady
9. Safe D, Fort Bend and SW Harris, Clinton+46, Al Green
10. Safe R, western Harris to Louisiana border, Trump+33, Michael McCaul?
11. Safe R, Midland to northern Bexar, Trump+31, August Pfluger
12. Safe R, Fort Worth to Weatherford, Trump+30, Kay Granger
13. Safe R, Amarillo to Wichita Falls, Trump+60, Ronny L. Jackson
14. Safe R, Galveston to Beaumont, Trump+24, Randy Weber
15. Safe D, McAllen to Corpus Christi, Clinton+29, Vicente Gonzalez
16. Safe D, El Paso, Clinton+33, Veronica Escobar
17. Safe R, Bryan to North Travis, Trump+22, Pete Sessions
18. Safe D, central to south Houston, Clinton+56, Sheila Jackson Lee
19. Safe R, Lubbock to western Travis, Trump+31, Jodey Arrington
20. Safe D, western San Antonio, Clinton+27, Joaquin Castro
21. Safe R, northern San Antonio suburbs/exurbs, Trump+28, Chip Roy
22. Safe R, Fort Bend to Gonzales County, Trump+30, Troy Nehls?
23. Likely R, El Paso to southern Bexar, Trump+8, open
24. Safe R, northern Tarrant to southern Denton, Trump+31, Beth Van Duyne?
25. Safe R, Abilene to Pflugerville, Trump+30, Roger Williams
26. Safe R, eastern Denton to Stevens County, Trump+29, Michael Burgess
27. Safe R, Corpus Christi to southern Houston exurbs, Trump+31, Michael Cloud,
28. Safe D, McAllen to eastern Bexar, Clinton+38, Henry Cuellar
29. Safe D, Houston to Pasadena, Clinton+51, Sylvia Garcia
30. Safe D, southern Dallas and Arlington, Clinton+53, Eddie Bernice Johnson
31. Safe R, Round Rock to Hood County, Trump+29, John Carter
32. Safe D, Downtown Dallas and northern suburbs, Clinton+39, Colin Allred
33. Safe D, Fort Worth to Grand Prairie, Clinton+49, Marc Veasey
34. Safe D, Brownsville to Corpus Christi, Clinton+27, Filemon Vela Jr.
35. Safe D, San Antonio to Austin, Clinton+43, open
36. Safe R, Jasper to Pearland, Trump+33, Brian Babin
37. Safe D, Austin, Clinton+53, Lloyd Doggett
38. Likely R, Highland Park to Prosper, Trump+12, open
39. Safe R, Hunters Creek Village to Livingston, Trump+30, open

But aren’t Texas and Florida GOP run states that have no qualms about drawing out incumbent Republicans?

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8622acc-5237-4f4e-a50a-3fbd04efe2ed
This is maybe a more realistic GOP gerrymander.  23-2-14.  The 2 swing seats are Trump+8 (rio grande) and Trump+12 (Highland Park-prosper).  Incumbents protected.
1. Safe R, Tyler to Mesquite, Trump+33, Louie Gohmert
2. Safe R, northeastern Houston suburbs/exurbs, Trump+31, Dan Crenshaw
3. Safe R, Plano to Marshall, Trump+33, Van Taylor
4. Safe R, Texarkana to McKinney, Trump+34, open
5. Safe R, Garland to Longview, Trump+34, Lance Gooden
6. Safe R, Arlington and southern DFW exurbs, Trump+29, Ron Wright
7. Safe D, northern and western Houston, Clinton+43, Lizzie Fletcher (vulnerable to non-white primary challenger)
8. Safe R, The Woodlands to Jersey Village, Trump+34, Kevin Brady
9. Safe D, Fort Bend and SW Harris, Clinton+46, Al Green
10. Safe R, western Harris to Louisiana border, Trump+33, Michael McCaul?
11. Safe R, Midland to northern Bexar, Trump+31, August Pfluger
12. Safe R, Fort Worth to Weatherford, Trump+30, Kay Granger
13. Safe R, Amarillo to Wichita Falls, Trump+60, Ronny L. Jackson
14. Safe R, Galveston to Beaumont, Trump+24, Randy Weber
15. Safe D, McAllen to Corpus Christi, Clinton+29, Vicente Gonzalez
16. Safe D, El Paso, Clinton+33, Veronica Escobar
17. Safe R, Bryan to North Travis, Trump+22, Pete Sessions
18. Safe D, central to south Houston, Clinton+56, Sheila Jackson Lee
19. Safe R, Lubbock to western Travis, Trump+31, Jodey Arrington
20. Safe D, western San Antonio, Clinton+27, Joaquin Castro
21. Safe R, northern San Antonio suburbs/exurbs, Trump+28, Chip Roy
22. Safe R, Fort Bend to Gonzales County, Trump+30, Troy Nehls?
23. Likely R, El Paso to southern Bexar, Trump+8, open
24. Safe R, northern Tarrant to southern Denton, Trump+31, Beth Van Duyne?
25. Safe R, Abilene to Pflugerville, Trump+30, Roger Williams
26. Safe R, eastern Denton to Stevens County, Trump+29, Michael Burgess
27. Safe R, Corpus Christi to southern Houston exurbs, Trump+31, Michael Cloud,
28. Safe D, McAllen to eastern Bexar, Clinton+38, Henry Cuellar
29. Safe D, Houston to Pasadena, Clinton+51, Sylvia Garcia
30. Safe D, southern Dallas and Arlington, Clinton+53, Eddie Bernice Johnson
31. Safe R, Round Rock to Hood County, Trump+29, John Carter
32. Safe D, Downtown Dallas and northern suburbs, Clinton+39, Colin Allred
33. Safe D, Fort Worth to Grand Prairie, Clinton+49, Marc Veasey
34. Safe D, Brownsville to Corpus Christi, Clinton+27, Filemon Vela Jr.
35. Safe D, San Antonio to Austin, Clinton+43, open
36. Safe R, Jasper to Pearland, Trump+33, Brian Babin
37. Safe D, Austin, Clinton+53, Lloyd Doggett
38. Likely R, Highland Park to Prosper, Trump+12, open
39. Safe R, Hunters Creek Village to Livingston, Trump+30, open

But aren’t Texas and Florida GOP run states that have no qualms about drawing out incumbent Republicans?

I think they's prefer to preserve their incumbents, and this map proves it can be done with maximizing partisan performance.  This map likely ends up as 25-14, with one GOP seat with a risk of flipping,the north Dallas one.  But Trump+12 is decent.

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8622acc-5237-4f4e-a50a-3fbd04efe2ed
This is maybe a more realistic GOP gerrymander.  23-2-14.  The 2 swing seats are Trump+8 (rio grande) and Trump+12 (Highland Park-prosper).  Incumbents protected.
1. Safe R, Tyler to Mesquite, Trump+33, Louie Gohmert
2. Safe R, northeastern Houston suburbs/exurbs, Trump+31, Dan Crenshaw
3. Safe R, Plano to Marshall, Trump+33, Van Taylor
4. Safe R, Texarkana to McKinney, Trump+34, open
5. Safe R, Garland to Longview, Trump+34, Lance Gooden
6. Safe R, Arlington and southern DFW exurbs, Trump+29, Ron Wright
7. Safe D, northern and western Houston, Clinton+43, Lizzie Fletcher (vulnerable to non-white primary challenger)
8. Safe R, The Woodlands to Jersey Village, Trump+34, Kevin Brady
9. Safe D, Fort Bend and SW Harris, Clinton+46, Al Green
10. Safe R, western Harris to Louisiana border, Trump+33, Michael McCaul?
11. Safe R, Midland to northern Bexar, Trump+31, August Pfluger
12. Safe R, Fort Worth to Weatherford, Trump+30, Kay Granger
13. Safe R, Amarillo to Wichita Falls, Trump+60, Ronny L. Jackson
14. Safe R, Galveston to Beaumont, Trump+24, Randy Weber
15. Safe D, McAllen to Corpus Christi, Clinton+29, Vicente Gonzalez
16. Safe D, El Paso, Clinton+33, Veronica Escobar
17. Safe R, Bryan to North Travis, Trump+22, Pete Sessions
18. Safe D, central to south Houston, Clinton+56, Sheila Jackson Lee
19. Safe R, Lubbock to western Travis, Trump+31, Jodey Arrington
20. Safe D, western San Antonio, Clinton+27, Joaquin Castro
21. Safe R, northern San Antonio suburbs/exurbs, Trump+28, Chip Roy
22. Safe R, Fort Bend to Gonzales County, Trump+30, Troy Nehls?
23. Likely R, El Paso to southern Bexar, Trump+8, open
24. Safe R, northern Tarrant to southern Denton, Trump+31, Beth Van Duyne?
25. Safe R, Abilene to Pflugerville, Trump+30, Roger Williams
26. Safe R, eastern Denton to Stevens County, Trump+29, Michael Burgess
27. Safe R, Corpus Christi to southern Houston exurbs, Trump+31, Michael Cloud,
28. Safe D, McAllen to eastern Bexar, Clinton+38, Henry Cuellar
29. Safe D, Houston to Pasadena, Clinton+51, Sylvia Garcia
30. Safe D, southern Dallas and Arlington, Clinton+53, Eddie Bernice Johnson
31. Safe R, Round Rock to Hood County, Trump+29, John Carter
32. Safe D, Downtown Dallas and northern suburbs, Clinton+39, Colin Allred
33. Safe D, Fort Worth to Grand Prairie, Clinton+49, Marc Veasey
34. Safe D, Brownsville to Corpus Christi, Clinton+27, Filemon Vela Jr.
35. Safe D, San Antonio to Austin, Clinton+43, open
36. Safe R, Jasper to Pearland, Trump+33, Brian Babin
37. Safe D, Austin, Clinton+53, Lloyd Doggett
38. Likely R, Highland Park to Prosper, Trump+12, open
39. Safe R, Hunters Creek Village to Livingston, Trump+30, open

But aren’t Texas and Florida GOP run states that have no qualms about drawing out incumbent Republicans?

I think they's prefer to preserve their incumbents, and this map proves it can be done with maximizing partisan performance.  This map likely ends up as 25-14, with one GOP seat with a risk of flipping,the north Dallas one.  But Trump+12 is decent.

Don't Florida Republicans frequently draw out incumbent Republicans to encourage primary challenges from the right?

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8622acc-5237-4f4e-a50a-3fbd04efe2ed
This is maybe a more realistic GOP gerrymander.  23-2-14.  The 2 swing seats are Trump+8 (rio grande) and Trump+12 (Highland Park-prosper).  Incumbents protected.
1. Safe R, Tyler to Mesquite, Trump+33, Louie Gohmert
2. Safe R, northeastern Houston suburbs/exurbs, Trump+31, Dan Crenshaw
3. Safe R, Plano to Marshall, Trump+33, Van Taylor
4. Safe R, Texarkana to McKinney, Trump+34, open
5. Safe R, Garland to Longview, Trump+34, Lance Gooden
6. Safe R, Arlington and southern DFW exurbs, Trump+29, Ron Wright
7. Safe D, northern and western Houston, Clinton+43, Lizzie Fletcher (vulnerable to non-white primary challenger)
8. Safe R, The Woodlands to Jersey Village, Trump+34, Kevin Brady
9. Safe D, Fort Bend and SW Harris, Clinton+46, Al Green
10. Safe R, western Harris to Louisiana border, Trump+33, Michael McCaul?
11. Safe R, Midland to northern Bexar, Trump+31, August Pfluger
12. Safe R, Fort Worth to Weatherford, Trump+30, Kay Granger
13. Safe R, Amarillo to Wichita Falls, Trump+60, Ronny L. Jackson
14. Safe R, Galveston to Beaumont, Trump+24, Randy Weber
15. Safe D, McAllen to Corpus Christi, Clinton+29, Vicente Gonzalez
16. Safe D, El Paso, Clinton+33, Veronica Escobar
17. Safe R, Bryan to North Travis, Trump+22, Pete Sessions
18. Safe D, central to south Houston, Clinton+56, Sheila Jackson Lee
19. Safe R, Lubbock to western Travis, Trump+31, Jodey Arrington
20. Safe D, western San Antonio, Clinton+27, Joaquin Castro
21. Safe R, northern San Antonio suburbs/exurbs, Trump+28, Chip Roy
22. Safe R, Fort Bend to Gonzales County, Trump+30, Troy Nehls?
23. Likely R, El Paso to southern Bexar, Trump+8, open
24. Safe R, northern Tarrant to southern Denton, Trump+31, Beth Van Duyne?
25. Safe R, Abilene to Pflugerville, Trump+30, Roger Williams
26. Safe R, eastern Denton to Stevens County, Trump+29, Michael Burgess
27. Safe R, Corpus Christi to southern Houston exurbs, Trump+31, Michael Cloud,
28. Safe D, McAllen to eastern Bexar, Clinton+38, Henry Cuellar
29. Safe D, Houston to Pasadena, Clinton+51, Sylvia Garcia
30. Safe D, southern Dallas and Arlington, Clinton+53, Eddie Bernice Johnson
31. Safe R, Round Rock to Hood County, Trump+29, John Carter
32. Safe D, Downtown Dallas and northern suburbs, Clinton+39, Colin Allred
33. Safe D, Fort Worth to Grand Prairie, Clinton+49, Marc Veasey
34. Safe D, Brownsville to Corpus Christi, Clinton+27, Filemon Vela Jr.
35. Safe D, San Antonio to Austin, Clinton+43, open
36. Safe R, Jasper to Pearland, Trump+33, Brian Babin
37. Safe D, Austin, Clinton+53, Lloyd Doggett
38. Likely R, Highland Park to Prosper, Trump+12, open
39. Safe R, Hunters Creek Village to Livingston, Trump+30, open

But aren’t Texas and Florida GOP run states that have no qualms about drawing out incumbent Republicans?

I think they's prefer to preserve their incumbents, and this map proves it can be done with maximizing partisan performance.  This map likely ends up as 25-14, with one GOP seat with a risk of flipping,the north Dallas one.  But Trump+12 is decent.

Don't Florida Republicans frequently draw out incumbent Republicans to encourage primary challenges from the right?

I'm not aware of that.  In TX, idk who they'd target.  My districts are already so red a primary challenge becomes more likely.  My map does kind of screw over McCaul tho, his district drastically changes and he'd be vulnerable to a primary challenge.  I suspect he'd prefer it to his currently district however, better to risk primary battle than certain general election defeat.  His current district is basically a tossup trending D now.  Also Van Taylor gets a very different district, but it's needed to keep it totally safe.  My map prioritized seat safety first, maximizing GOP seats second, and incumbents 3rd.  Usually I got all 3.